MAC East Championship Scenarios

mollautt · Post by **mollautt** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 12:31 pm

MAC EAST CHAMPIONSHIP SCENARIOS SIMPLIFIED

A. BUFFALO WINS THE EAST IF:

Miami loses at least 1 game (H-Akron or @Ohio)
AND Buffalo wins out (H-BG and @Kent)

OR

Miami loses out (H-Akron and @Ohio)
AND Buffalo beats BG (@ UB)

OR

Miami beats Akron (@ Miami)
AND Ohio wins out (@Akron and H-Miami)
AND Buffalo beats BG (@ UB)
AND Temple beats Kent (@ Temple)

B. OHIO WINS THE EAST IF:

Ohio wins out (@Akron and H-Miami)
AND BG beats UB (@ UB)

C. BG WINS THE EAST IF:

Miami loses out (H-Akron and @Ohio)
AND BG beats UB (@ UB)
AND Akron beats Ohio (@ Akron)

D. MIAMI WINS THE EAST IF:

Any of the above scenarios do not take place

******

OF NOTE:

Buffalo loss to BG eliminates UB, but the UB-Kent game has very little meaning.
A Buffalo win over BG eliminates Ohio and BUGS.
A Miami win eliminates BG.

Falconboy · Post by **Falconboy** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 12:37 pm

Its nice you went through all the trouble of finding out all the possible scenarios under the sun that we could win the East, but I think the point is moot. Miami is simply not losing to any of their remaining opponents. Miami remaining sched is as easy as they could ever hope for. Plus that all assuming we will win out which I definitely don't see at this time. I see us beating EMU close , but losing to UT.

mollautt · Post by **mollautt** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 1:11 pm

=>BG does not have to win out, just beat Buffalo. If BG losses 10,000 to -10 to both Toledo and EMU, it will have no impact on BG's chances of making the MACC.

bgsufalcon24 · Post by **bgsufalcon24** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 2:01 pm

Falconboy wrote:Its nice you went through all the trouble of finding out all the possible scenarios under the sun that we could win the East, but I think the point is moot. Miami is simply not losing to any of their remaining opponents. Miami remaining sched is as easy as they could ever hope for. Plus that all assuming we will win out which I definitely don't see at this time. I see us beating EMU close , but losing to UT.

Are you kidding? Miami's no powerhouse. Their offense has had days where they couldn't even move the ball a little bit. Akron's defense could easily put them on lockdown if they have a bad day. Ohio's not as bad as you think either, they actually have just as good an overall record as Miami does, plus Miami has to go play Ohio (a rivalry game) on the road to end the season. Needless to say, Miami winning out is FAR from a done deal.

Buffalo, I don't think is going to win a game the rest of the way. I think we trash them on the 17th. Pretenders all the way.

Ohio is the team that concerns me most actually. They are gaining a lot of momentum right now, and I think they will probably win their final two games. If that happens, we need to hope for a three way tie scenario between us, Buf, and Ohio where Miami loses out. It says here that in that scenario Ohio would win the division, but I'm curious as to why seeing as we'll be in a rock-paper-scissors type scenario (BG beat UB, UB beat Ohio, Ohio beat BG). Our cross division opponents are the same as Ohio, and they lost to UT, giving us a potential tiebreak advantage if we beat EMU and UT.

TG1996 · Post by **TG1996** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 2:14 pm

bgsufalcon24 wrote: It says here that in that scenario Ohio would win the division, but I'm curious as to why seeing as we'll be in a rock-paper-scissors type scenario (BG beat UB, UB beat Ohio, Ohio beat BG). Our cross division opponents are the same as Ohio, and they lost to UT, giving us a potential tiebreak advantage if we beat EMU and UT.

OU would have been the only one of the three to beat Miami(OH), who would be the fourth place team (next best to the three tied teams) in the East. It's explained somewhere in the tiebreaker procedure that I've read about, but haven't really cared about unless we take care of UB next week.

...which I haven't cared much about because I'd like to see which team comes out to play THIS week.

mollautt · Post by **mollautt** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 2:58 pm

TG1996 wrote:
bgsufalcon24 wrote: It says here that in that scenario Ohio would win the division, but I'm curious as to why seeing as we'll be in a rock-paper-scissors type scenario (BG beat UB, UB beat Ohio, Ohio beat BG). Our cross division opponents are the same as Ohio, and they lost to UT, giving us a potential tiebreak advantage if we beat EMU and UT.
OU would have been the only one of the three to beat Miami(OH), who would be the fourth place team (next best to the three tied teams) in the East. It's explained somewhere in the tiebreaker procedure that I've read about, but haven't really cared about unless we take care of UB next week.

...which I haven't cared much about because I'd like to see which team comes out to play THIS week.

=>Correct. However Temple would be the 4th place finisher if the Owls beat Kent (knocking Miami to 5th by virtue of Temple beating Miami). In any case, Ohio, BG, and UB would have beaten Temple. Therefore, the result against Miami would be the tiebreaker irregardless of the RedHawks 4th or 5th place finish.

MAC Tiebreaking Procedure:

http://mac-sports.com/ViewArticle.dbml? ... ID=1148024

bgsufalcon24 · Post by **bgsufalcon24** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 3:32 pm

mollautt wrote:
TG1996 wrote:
bgsufalcon24 wrote: It says here that in that scenario Ohio would win the division, but I'm curious as to why seeing as we'll be in a rock-paper-scissors type scenario (BG beat UB, UB beat Ohio, Ohio beat BG). Our cross division opponents are the same as Ohio, and they lost to UT, giving us a potential tiebreak advantage if we beat EMU and UT.
OU would have been the only one of the three to beat Miami(OH), who would be the fourth place team (next best to the three tied teams) in the East. It's explained somewhere in the tiebreaker procedure that I've read about, but haven't really cared about unless we take care of UB next week.

...which I haven't cared much about because I'd like to see which team comes out to play THIS week.
=>Correct. However Temple would be the 4th place finisher if the Owls beat Kent (knocking Miami to 5th by virtue of Temple beating Miami). In any case, Ohio, BG, and UB would have beaten Temple. Therefore, the result against Miami would be the tiebreaker irregardless of the RedHawks 4th or 5th place finish.

MAC Tiebreaking Procedure:

http://mac-sports.com/ViewArticle.dbml? ... ID=1148024

That is probably the worst tiebreaking procedure that I've ever heard of.

s**t.

Damn you MAC.

The worst part about this scenario is that if it happens, we will be 6-2 overall in the MAC while Ohio and Buffalo will both be 5-3 as they both lost cross-divisional games (Ohio vs Toledo, Buffalo to Ball State). What a load of crap.

mollautt · Post by **mollautt** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 3:42 pm

bgsufalcon24 wrote:
mollautt wrote:
TG1996 wrote:
bgsufalcon24 wrote: It says here that in that scenario Ohio would win the division, but I'm curious as to why seeing as we'll be in a rock-paper-scissors type scenario (BG beat UB, UB beat Ohio, Ohio beat BG). Our cross division opponents are the same as Ohio, and they lost to UT, giving us a potential tiebreak advantage if we beat EMU and UT.
OU would have been the only one of the three to beat Miami(OH), who would be the fourth place team (next best to the three tied teams) in the East. It's explained somewhere in the tiebreaker procedure that I've read about, but haven't really cared about unless we take care of UB next week.

...which I haven't cared much about because I'd like to see which team comes out to play THIS week.
=>Correct. However Temple would be the 4th place finisher if the Owls beat Kent (knocking Miami to 5th by virtue of Temple beating Miami). In any case, Ohio, BG, and UB would have beaten Temple. Therefore, the result against Miami would be the tiebreaker irregardless of the RedHawks 4th or 5th place finish.

MAC Tiebreaking Procedure:

http://mac-sports.com/ViewArticle.dbml? ... ID=1148024
That is probably the worst tiebreaking procedure that I've ever heard of.

s**t.

Damn you MAC.

The worst part about this scenario is that if it happens, we will be 6-2 overall in the MAC while Ohio and Buffalo will both be 5-3 as they both lost cross-divisional games (Ohio vs Toledo, Buffalo to Ball State). What a load of crap.

=>My thoughts exactly. Miami, who went 1-0 vs. the only West team it will play, a pretty good BSU team, basically gets no credit for the win.

Falconfreak90 · Post by **Falconfreak90** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 4:12 pm

Man, that loss to Ohio is really, REALLY eating me up inside now.

Oh well...it's done and we can't do anything but win our remaining games.

I still think Buffalo will prove to be a challenge...they play well at home.

BEAT EMU

mollautt · Post by **mollautt** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 5:54 pm

=>And now for the MAC West Division!

MAC WEST CHAMPIONSHIP SCENARIOS SIMPLIFIED

A. BSU WINS THE WEST IF:

CMU loses both division games (@ WMU, H-EMU)
BSU beats Toledo (H-Toledo)

OR

CMU loses all 3 remaining games (@ WMU, H-EMU, @ Akron)
BSU beats NIU (@ NIU)
BUGS beats Toledo (@ BUGS)
EMU beats BUGS (@ EMU)

B. TOLEDO WINS THE WEST IF:

CMU loses all 3 remaining games (@ WMU, H-EMU, @ Akron)
BSU beats NIU (@ NIU)
Toledo wins both remaining games (@ BSU, @ BUGS)

C. WMU WINS THE WEST IF:

CMU loses all 3 remaining games (@ WMU, H-EMU, @ Akron)
BSU beats NIU (@ NIU)
Toledo beats BSU (@ BSU)
BUGS beats Toledo (@ BUGS)
BUGS beats EMU (@ EMU)
WMU beats Temple (@ Temple)

D. EMU WINS THE WEST IF:

CMU losses both division games (@ WMU, H-EMU)
BSU loses out (H-Toledo, @ NIU)

E. CMU WINS THE WEST IF:

Any of the above scenarios do not take place. In other words…

CMU wins at least one division game (@ WMU, H-EMU)

OR

CMU beats Akron (@ Akron)
BSU beats NIU (@ NIU)
Toledo beats BSU (@ BSU)

OR

CMU loses all 3 remaining games (@ WMU, H-EMU, @ Akron)
BSU beats NIU (@ NIU)
Toledo beats BSU (@ BSU)
BUGS beats Toledo (@ BUGS)
BUGS beats EMU (@ EMU)
Temple beats WMU (@ Temple)

******

Tiebreaker format:

http://mac-sports.com/ViewArticle.dbml? ... ID=1148024

Schadenfreude · Post by **Schadenfreude** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 7:15 pm

Falconboy wrote:Miami is simply not losing to any of their remaining opponents.

Dude, Temple smoked 'em.

There is a reason they play the games.

I'm not holding my breath for an East title, but a Miami loss could help us with bowl eligibility.

Thanks for stopping by Mullet.

bgsufalcon24 · Post by **bgsufalcon24** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 10:17 pm

Schadenfreude wrote:
Falconboy wrote:Miami is simply not losing to any of their remaining opponents.
Dude, Temple smoked 'em.

There is a reason they play the games.

I'm not holding my breath for an East title, but a Miami loss could help us with bowl eligibility.

Thanks for stopping by Mullet.

If we win our remaining games, we will have the best record in the MAC, either alone or tied with Central Michigan. That will get us to a bowl for sure, the division champions will probably get the other two bids and we'll get the third. Winning out is the key though, another loss and there's a possibility we could be beat out for the 3rd bowl bid.

BGFalconfromCincy · Post by **BGFalconfromCincy** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 11:43 pm

mollautt wrote: CMU wins at least one division game (@ WMU, H-EMU)

done, CMU to the title game

mollautt · Post by **mollautt** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 11:45 am

Schadenfreude wrote:
Falconboy wrote:Miami is simply not losing to any of their remaining opponents.
Dude, Temple smoked 'em.

There is a reason they play the games.

I'm not holding my breath for an East title, but a Miami loss could help us with bowl eligibility.

Thanks for stopping by Mullet.

=>Agreed. The only MAC team Miami has whipped was the boys of Wood County. Miami's other MAC wins were BSU by 1, UB by 3, and Kent by 7. All of those 3 other wins came down to the final minute.

I think Miami's blowout over BG was the result of unusual emotional intangibles (honoring Coach Hoeppner, retiring Roethlisberger's #, blowout loss to BG 2 years earlier at Yager costing Miami a 3rd straight MACC appearance).

Anything can happen in these final games. The best team in the MAC East is probably only 5 points better than the worst teams in the MAC East.

Falconfreak90 · Post by **Falconfreak90** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 12:00 pm

mollautt wrote:
Schadenfreude wrote:
Falconboy wrote:Miami is simply not losing to any of their remaining opponents.
Dude, Temple smoked 'em.

There is a reason they play the games.

I'm not holding my breath for an East title, but a Miami loss could help us with bowl eligibility.

Thanks for stopping by Mullet.
I think Miami's blowout over BG was the result of unusual emotional intangibles (honoring Coach Hoeppner, retiring Roethlisberger's #, blowout loss to BG 2 years earlier at Yager costing Miami a 3rd straight MACC appearance).

Anything can happen in these final games. The best team in the MAC East is probably only 5 points better than the worst teams in the MAC East.

I agree 100% with that. BG was simply the wrong team in the wrong place that day. And it sure didn't help that we didn't seem ready to play.

All we have to do is look back 2 years and how Akron won the East and MAC...it CAN happen.