What do I need to be hoping for?

daspollak · Post by **daspollak** » Sat Nov 08, 2008 10:02 pm

I know Akron and Buffalo play this week. Should I be pulling for Buffalo, since we still play them and we need Akron to have another loss? Also, what happens if BG, UA, and UB finish in a 3 way tie for first? All the possibilities make my head hurt.

jmillerbg · Post by **jmillerbg** » Sat Nov 08, 2008 10:04 pm

As you said there are a lot of possibilities, but as I understand it we need Buffalo to beat Akron and then we need to beat Buffalo.

If that were to happen we would have the tie-breaker over both of them in case of a two or three way tie atop the East division.

cph2133 · Post by **cph2133** » Sat Nov 08, 2008 10:30 pm

yea, head to head is the tie breaker. We need Akron to get another loss, and we'll have the tie breaker over them (assuming we don't get another mac L) and therefore we'd beat Buff, and hold teh tie breaker over them...win out and we won the east if Buff beats Akron

Falconboy · Post by **Falconboy** » Sat Nov 08, 2008 10:30 pm

I heard that we need Miami and Akron or Buffalo to lose at least one more time along with us winning out to have a chance at the East title. Not very good odds if you ask me but we made our bed a while ago and there's not much we can do about that now.

cph2133 · Post by **cph2133** » Sat Nov 08, 2008 10:33 pm

Falconboy wrote:I heard that we need Miami and Akron or Buffalo to lose at least one more time along with us winning out to have a chance at the East title. Not very good odds if you ask me but we made our bed a while ago and there's not much we can do about that now.

Miami is 1-4 (1-5 with todays L i believe) n the conference, not sure why we'd need them to get another L, they're completely out of it.

Rollo83 · Post by **Rollo83** » Sat Nov 08, 2008 11:28 pm

A new coach.

MarkL · Post by **MarkL** » Sat Nov 08, 2008 11:45 pm

Here's how it goes - Akron is one full game ahead of us. They need to lose at least once, as we have a tie breaker over them. We couldn't care if Buffalo loses another one, but we need to beat them, and then we would have a tie breaker over them. So if the three of us are at the top, we've got the tie breaker.

Here's the issue: Temple. They also have three losses, and they play Akron, EMU, and Kent. We don't play Temple, and the tie breaker is weird and has to do with the records of your cross divisional opponents, and in that regard we are not good. NIU has done great, but we also have EMU and Toledo on the schedule, the bottom two in the west. Temple has in the west EMU, CMU, and WMU. I know the tie breaker is weird but I believe Temple would have the tie breaker over us, so we need them to lose.

SO ..... Here's what we all need to hope for:
1. We win out. Absolute must.
2. Anybody beats Akron, best chance is Buffalo. Ties Akron with us, we have tie breaker over them.
3. Anybody beats Temple, best chance is Akron. This knocks Temple out of the race.

Warthog · Post by **Warthog** » Sun Nov 09, 2008 8:44 am

MarkL wrote:We don't play Temple, and the tie breaker is weird and has to do with the records of your cross divisional opponents

I don't think you have the tie breakers correct. (See link in the OU game thread) Cross divisional teams record is used, but it is the third tie breaker. First is head to head, and we can win the division based on this even though we don't play Temple. If three or more teams end up tied, it's the best head to head record against those teams. If we tie with Temple and Akron and or Buffalo we will be undefeated against those teams. While all of those others will have lost to one of the other teams. Temple has already lost to Buffalo and Buffalo and Akron will have lost to us, so we would go to the MACC.

If Akron beats Buffalo and then loses to Temple, then we have a scenario where us, Akron and Temple are tied and us and Temple would be 1-0 among the tied teams. Therefore, Akron is eliminated and it becomes a two team tie breaker between us and Temple. What gets crazy is the second tie breaker which is record vs division opponents in rank order. So, as long as Miami finishes last in the division, we would have this tie breaker over Temple, or any other team.

So, basically, I think, as long as Akron loses one game and we win out, we will go to the MACC.

ZuluWarrior · Post by **ZuluWarrior** » Sun Nov 09, 2008 8:45 am

Some freaking consistency.

daspollak · Post by **daspollak** » Sun Nov 09, 2008 8:56 am

Gotta love this unbalanced schedule.

Falconfreak90 · Post by **Falconfreak90** » Sun Nov 09, 2008 9:52 am

Take care of our own business and see what happens elsewhere. IF BG wins out and Akron loses one more game, we're heading to Ford Field for the MACC.

GO BG

daspollak · Post by **daspollak** » Sun Nov 09, 2008 10:39 am

Why is the Buffalo game on Friday? Are we trying to scare off any potential fans? I understand that the UM-OSU game is on Sat., but do we really need to have a Friday game for that? I am curious, who would go if the game was on Sat. but will not because it is on Fri. I do hope this may boost student attendance.

Redwingtom · Post by **Redwingtom** » Sun Nov 09, 2008 10:43 am

Warthog wrote:
MarkL wrote:We don't play Temple, and the tie breaker is weird and has to do with the records of your cross divisional opponents
I don't think you have the tie breakers correct. (See link in the OU game thread) Cross divisional teams record is used, but it is the third tie breaker. First is head to head, and we can win the division based on this even though we don't play Temple. If three or more teams end up tied, it's the best head to head record against those teams. If we tie with Temple and Akron and or Buffalo we will be undefeated against those teams. While all of those others will have lost to one of the other teams. Temple has already lost to Buffalo and Buffalo and Akron will have lost to us, so we would go to the MACC.

If Akron beats Buffalo and then loses to Temple, then we have a scenario where us, Akron and Temple are tied and us and Temple would be 1-0 among the tied teams. Therefore, Akron is eliminated and it becomes a two team tie breaker between us and Temple. What gets crazy is the second tie breaker which is record vs division opponents in rank order. So, as long as Miami finishes last in the division, we would have this tie breaker over Temple, or any other team.

So, basically, I think, as long as Akron loses one game and we win out, we will go to the MACC.

There is one mistake in your scenario. You can only use the head-to-head tiebreaker if the the teams tied played each other the EXACT same number of times. Since we did not play Temple, the head-to-head tiebreaker could not be used in any scenario involving us, Temple and one or more other teams.

Therefore, if us and Temple win out and end up tied for the Division lead, the third tiebreaker is used which is the conference winning percentage of the cross-division teams played. And since Temple played Eastern, Western and Central and we played Eastern, Toledo and NIU we would lose out.

Currently Temple is 2-1 in Eastern division games with 2 games left (@ Kent and Akron). We are currently 3-1 with the game left versus Buffalo.

Therefore, we need to win out and Temple needs to lose a game as well as Akron for us to take the East.

MAC Tie breaker order:
- Head-to-Head
- Division Winning Percentage
- Conference Winning Percentage of Cross-Division Opponents

bgsufalcon24 · Post by **bgsufalcon24** » Sun Nov 09, 2008 10:52 am

daspollak wrote:Why is the Buffalo game on Friday? Are we trying to scare off any potential fans? I understand that the UM-OSU game is on Sat., but do we really need to have a Friday game for that? I am curious, who would go if the game was on Sat. but will not because it is on Fri. I do hope this may boost student attendance.

If we had a game the same day as OSU-UM, I can't speak for the townies, but we would have NO student attendance whatsoever.

Warthog · Post by **Warthog** » Sun Nov 09, 2008 11:24 am

Redwingtom wrote:There is one mistake in your scenario. You can only use the head-to-head tiebreaker if the the teams tied played each other the EXACT same number of times.

http://www.mac-sports.com/ViewArticle.d ... ID=1148024

Where does it say head to head between three teams can't be used if two teams didn't play each other? It's a loophole in the tie-breakers of us not playing Temple as a divisional game. We will be undefeated in any head-to-head tiebreaker scenario with Temple. Temple can be undefeated if Akron beats Buffalo and Temple beats Akron. Akron would be 0-2 in that scenario and Temple and BG 1-0. Move to tie breaker #2.

Redwingtom wrote:Therefore, if us and Temple win out and end up tied for the Division lead, the third tiebreaker is used which is the conference winning percentage of the cross-division teams played.

WTF happened to the second tie-breaker? Why are you skipping it and going to the third? You use you divisional opponents first, then the third and fourth tie-breakers move to cross-divisional opponents. The above scenario is basically the only one where we move to this tie-breaker. The fact that our lone divisional lose would be against bottom-feeder Miami means that we will win this tie-breaker with Temple. The only way Miami finishes ahead of Buffalo would be for Buffalo to lose all three remaining games (@Akr, @ BG, vs Kent) and Miami wins all three of theirs (@ Ball St, @ Tol, and OU). So, that's not likely. Meaning, we will have this tie-breaker over Temple.

I stand by my statement that we will play in the MACC if we win out and Akron loses once to anyone.