Bowl Question

[BourbonFalcon]

Does anyone more enlightened than me know what BG's odds of making a bowl game are?

It seems like last year someone figured out how many teams were bowl eligible and how many potentially could be bowl eligible in the coming weeks and compared that to the spots available. If BG wins next week, does that assure them a bowl just for the simple fact that there aren't enough 7-5 teams to fill all the spots? Thanks

[TG1996]

It doesn't "assure" us a bowl, but it would put us in good position, from what I've read. The MAC gets 3 bids automatically, so I'd have to think we'd be up against NIU for the "at-large" pick in conference. But I think there's an ACC bowl that they won't qualify for, and it falls to the MAC, IIRC. I'd think BG's offense and stretch run would be attractive for one of those two picks.

[falconjw]

MAC is a lock for 4 bowl games this year as the Eagle Bank Bowl tie in is ACC 8th place or MAC 4th vs C-USA 6th Place or Army. Right now 6th place C-USA looks like it will be Marshall. Central, Northern, Temple are most likely locks. Toss up with OHIO/BGSU. The MAC could possible squeeze a 5th team too. After this week we should have a clear picture of what conferences can't fulfill their obligations.

[professorjackson]

Wouldn't an 8 win OU team that beat BG go ahead of the Falcons?

[Redwingtom]

Wouldn't an 8 win OU team that beat BG go ahead of the Falcons?

No guarantee at all. Ohio has no cachet to a bowl committee.

We've got Tyler and Freddie!!!

I believe the only rule for records is that you can't take an at-large 6-6 team over a 7+ win at-large team.

[falconfan1999]

Unless that 6-6 team is from the Big 10, then it is mandatory that you take them before all other bowl worthy teams!


Lot of sarcasm dripping out of me today...

[San Diego Falcon]

Thank you Bucks and Canes.

Screw you Terps.

[San Diego Falcon]

Thank you USF Bulls (though we still hate you)

[bgsufalcon24]

Thank you Bucks and Canes.

Screw you Terps.

I think it's incredible that the Terps were even in that game. They are horrible. Granted, they should've finished the Seminoles off as they only needed 1 more first down to win it, but to blame a Maryland for not winning is a bit much, IMO.

Lots of other games to watch today too, involving 4 and 5 win teams. South Florida eliminated Louisville today, and Mississippi State will be out after Arkansas finishes them off. More games to note, TCU at Wyoming, UAB at East Carolina, and Hawaii at San Jose State, among others.

[Globetrotter]

How many bowls are there?

[transfer2BGSU]

How many bowls are there?

34 games

68 teams

December 29 at 4:30 PM

[bgsufalcon24]

Here's a rundown of who's eligible:

* - indicates team with 6 wins

ACC - 7 teams
Clemson
Boston College
Georgia Tech
North Carolina
Virginia Tech
Miami
Florida State*

Big East - 5 teams
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh
Rutgers
South Florida
West Virginia

Big XII - 8 teams
Nebraska
Missouri
Texas
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Oklahoma*
Texas A&M*
Iowa State*

Big Ten - 7 teams
Ohio State
Iowa
Penn State
Northwestern
Wisconsin
Michigan State*
Minnesota*

Pac 10 - 7 teams
Oregon
USC
Oregon State
Stanford
California
Arizona*
UCLA*

SEC - 10 teams
Florida
Georgia
Alabama
Auburn
LSU
Mississippi
Arkansas
Tennessee*
South Carolina*
Kentucky*

Independents - 2 teams
Navy
Notre Dame*

Conference USA - 6 times
Houston
East Carolina
Central Florida
Marshall*
Southern Miss*
Southern Methodist*

Mid-American - 5 teams
Central Michigan
Temple
Ohio
Northern Illinois
Bowling Green*

Mountain West - 4 teams
Texas Christian
Brigham Young
Utah
Air Force

Sun Belt - 4 teams
Troy
Middle Tennessee
Louisiana Monroe*
Louisiana Lafayette*

WAC - 4 teams
Boise State
Nevada
Fresno State
Idaho

So, to sum it all up, there's 69 total teams already eligible. Of these teams, 52 teams have 7 or more wins and are in for sure. Also, there are 11 more teams that can still become eligible before the season is over. Those are:

Hawaii
Wyoming
Western Michigan
Toledo
Kent State
Tulsa
Alabama Birmingham
Connecticut
Army
Duke
Kansas

Given this math, it's uncertain how many 6-win teams will be left at home. There's a decent chance that if we only have 6 wins we're going to be sitting at home. But, at the same time, if you get 7 wins, you're pretty much going to be a lock. A lot of this will depend on whether teams like Connecticut, Kansas, Duke, Wyoming, and Hawaii become eligible in the final weeks.

One thing is for sure certain, we can eliminate a lot of stress if we just BEAT TOLEDO.

[Globetrotter]

Here is another look at what you just posted. I believe your numbers are slightly off and we are an absolute lock if we win. There will be 70-71 bowl eligible teams for the 68 spots.

Locks

1 Alabama 1 11.-.0
2 Florida 2 11.-.0
3 Texas 5 11.-.0
4 Cincinnati 4 10.-.0
5 TCU 8 11.-.0
6 Boise St 6 11.-.0
7 GT 10 10.-.1
8 Pitt 13 9.-.1
9 Oregon 7 9.-.2
10 OSU 26 10.-.2
11 BYU 21 9.-.2
12 Iowa 3 10.-.2
13 Oklahoma St. 15 9.-.2
14 Houston 14 9.-.2
15 Penn State 11 10.-.2
16 Utah 12 9.-.2
17 C Michigan 18 9.-.2
18 Temple 30 9.-.2
19 LSU 9 8.-.3
20 Rutgers 23 7.-.3
21 Wisconsin 24 8.-.3
22 S Florida 20 7.-.3
23 West Virginia 16 7.-.3
24 USC 17 7.-.3
25 Miami (fl) 19 8.-.3
26 Troy 29 8.-.3
27 California 28 8.-.3
28 Va Tech 33 8.-.3
29 Ole Miss 34 8.-.3
30 Navy 35 8.-.3
31 Nebraska 36 8.-.3
32 North Carolina 40 8.-.3
33 Oregon St. 42 8.-.3
34 Ohio 43 8.-.3
35 Mid Tenn St. 47 8.-.3
36 Clemson 52 8.-.3
37 Nevada 54 8.-.3
38 Northwestern 57 8.-.4
39 BC 39 7.-.4
40 Stanford 44 7.-.4
41 N Illinois 49 7.-.4
42 Missouri 37 7.-.4
43 Auburn 38 7.-.4
44 Texas Tech 41 7.-.4
45 Idaho 22 7.-.4
46 East Carolina 45 7.-.4
47 UCF 50 7.-.4
48 Fresno St 53 7.-.4
49 S Miss 58 7.-.4
50 Air Force 62 7.-.5
51 Kentucky 71 7.-.4
52 Arkansas 73 7.-.4

Teams that can get to 7 wins

53 Arizona 27 6.-.4
54 Notre Dame 25 6.-.5
55 Oklahoma 48 6.-.5
56 Georgia 70 6.-.5
57 SMU 72 6.-.5
58 Louisiana-Monroe 66 6.-.5
59 S. Carolina 32 6.-.5
60 Texas AnM 46 6.-.5
61 Marshall 56 6.-.5
62 LA Lafayette 67 6.-.5
63 Tennessee 74 6.-.5
64 FSU 76 6.-.5
65 UCLA 84 6.-.5
66 Bowling Green 87 6.-.5
67 Connecticut 65 5.-.5

Teams already at 6-6

68 Iowa State 59 6.-.6
69 Kansas St. 60 6.-.6
70 Minnesota 61 6.-.6
71 Michigan St. 80 6.-.6

If we don't win we could very well be one of the 3 teams that don't go bowling. 2 teams if UCONN loses out.

I imagine it would come down to us La Lafayette, La Monroe and SMU for the final spots. I have no idea about their fan bases or how they travel. But they are in the south so that might be mean more people just due to proximity.

[Lord_Byron]

According to Wikipedia (I can't believe I just typed that), the MAC is a lock for the Eagle Bank Bowl as someone upthread indicated. They've actually got a pretty good and up-to-date analysis by conference.

Linky

[Rollo83]

Globe...

I believe that your 68-71 teams would all go bowling before BG. Iowa State Kansas State, Minnesota and Mcihigan State would all get selected at 6-6 before a 7-5 BG team IMO. If you're a bowl commissioner and you were responsible for the economics of the game, wouldn't you want those fan bases buying tickets versus ours?