Barnes and the NFL Combine.....

[Class of 61]

Maybe it's because you're so easy to baffle...

Jeff Groth...WR drafted by the Fins in 1979. Had a 152 catches in 94 games...

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/c ... linggreen/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Flip,
I'm pretty sure that Groth played most of his career with the Saints..."pride of Chagrin Falls, O.".

[Class of 61]

How much can you really improve your 40 time by working with a speed coach? Maybe 0.2 of a second at most? So Freddie goes from a 4.9 to a 4.75?

Where did you come up with the 4.9?! I've always heard that his time last year was 4.6+....so if he'd knock off the .2 that you've indicated...he'd be at a 4.4, which would make him "draftable" I'd think.... bottom line as I've indicated on another thread once, is that this kid knows how to get open...would it be tougher to do vs. the NFL? Of course it would, but he'd also NOT be the "go to " guy all the time either as he was here at BG, with not a lot of solid WR help to take pressure off.

[tiznow]

Freddie has said that when he came to BG as a QB he was not concerned with his 40 time. When was the last time he was timed? I have also read that he has run in the 4.5 area as well as 4.6. Freddie has shown he can get open. The 40 time may help influence where he is drafted, but once he has an opportunity in an NFL camp that will be a good indicater.

Julian Edelman's 40 time ranged from 4.45 to 4.63.

[Rollo83]

How much can you really improve your 40 time by working with a speed coach? Maybe 0.2 of a second at most? So Freddie goes from a 4.9 to a 4.75?

Where did you come up with the 4.9?! I've always heard that his time last year was 4.6+....so if he'd knock off the .2 that you've indicated...he'd be at a 4.4, which would make him "draftable" I'd think.... bottom line as I've indicated on another thread once, is that this kid knows how to get open...would it be tougher to do vs. the NFL? Of course it would, but he'd also NOT be the "go to " guy all the time either as he was here at BG, with not a lot of solid WR help to take pressure off.

Don't get me wrong, I am not questioning his hands, heart or route running ability. I love the guy.

I am just wondering how much a speed coach can make at this point? I might have been high at 4.9 but I think you're low at 4.6. If he was already running a 4.6, they wouldn't be so concerned about his speed. I think he's more of a 4.75 or 4.8 guy.

[BillyLP]

Last time he was timed it was at 4.65 and for WR in the NFL they look for about a 4.4 to 4.5 max, although there are obviously exceptions. I think he'll get drafted in the last couple of rounds for sure but his speed isn't going to improve that much by the time the draft gets here. NFL scouts already know about him whether he goes to the combine or not and there are a few out there who will push for him to get drafted.

Then again I'm just like everyone else here who doesn't really know what they are talking about and has no clue what will happen until draft day.

[daspollak]

With a speed coach he could easily drop .1-.2 of a second. They can teach proper starting mechanics and other things many top track athletes have to do. This can be a big help, which is why I think the 40 is overrated. The better test is the shuttle run, which shows a players agility and acceleration.

[kentuckianacoach]

I realize I am probably one of the oldest on this message board, but that being said I think we are over rating the 40 times. Freddie brings to the table his ability to run routes, get separation and has unbelievable hands. I would have to agree with Lou Holtz when he made this comment recently about Freddie on ESPN: "Guys, I remember another player who people thought because of his slow 40 times he would not be that good in the NFL...his name was Jerry Rice!" I think that says it all!

[SidelineScouting]

The difference between running the 40 yard dash in 4.6 as opposed to 4.5 is 7.2 inches per second. If a particular pass play takes, say, four seconds to develop, that's 28.8 inches - close to two-and-a-half feet. In other words, the man you are covering is wide open.

[1987alum]

This has been gnawing at me for a few days ...

When I hear people - including myself - talk about Freddie, this is what I hear - not as big as you'd like, not as fast as you'd like, but he's got great hands and runs great routes. He returns kicks and played QB in high school.

Turn the clock back a few years and many people - including myself - were saying the same things about Cole Magner when he graduated.

I think Freddie has a much, much better chance at making it in the NFL than Cole did, but I don't think it's wise to dismiss the measurables. Let's face it, if the NFL didn't use that data as at least part of the evaluation process, they wouldn't collect it.

[Warthog]

The difference between running the 40 yard dash in 4.6 as opposed to 4.5 is 7.2 inches per second. If a particular pass play takes, say, four seconds to develop, that's 28.8 inches - close to two-and-a-half feet. In other words, the man you are covering is wide open.

I see a slight flaw in your logic. You are assuming that the cover guy is also a 4.6 speedster. So If both are 4.6, they are running stride for stride with each other. But if the WR is 4.5 against a 4.6 CB, then yes, you create that theoretical 28.2 inches of seperation. But if that WR is 4.6, lines up the slot and is covered by a 4.8 LB, well you do the math.

Also, the DB lines up at lease one yard (36 inches) in front of the WR. So the WR has to be at least 0.2 seconds faster to just get by the DB.

On top of that, that's all straight line, no pads, no helmet running. Football speed is WAY different than a track speed 40 time.

Honestly, I think 40 time is one of the most over-rated statistics for a football player.

[hammb]

Oh I think 40 times are completely overrated by fans, but the fact remains that NFL scouts do use them.

The thing to remember is that there are countless collegiate players that have had great production at the college level. Sure, most not as good as Freddie's, but still there are a lot of guys that produce.

The NFL draft is about projecting players to the next level. When doing that you certainly want to look at game film and see what they do on the field, but actual stats don't mean that much. Teams use the tests like 40 yard dash, shuttle, lifting, etc to determine the overall athlete that a prospect is. That will help them determine what his ceiling is at the next level, and that will determine draft position.

There are so few truly elite talents, and they are so valuable, that teams will take guys that have a higher ceiling, even if they don't have a very high likelihood of reaching that ceiling. Barnes has had great production, and I think that if a team were to commit to him in the slot he'd probably be pretty likely to put up 500 yards running against LBs. However, he's not going to be a big play threat at the NFL level, and he's not going to ever be a guy you line up on the outside against CBs. So then the question for an NFL team becomes taking a sure, steady player like Barnes, or a higher ceiling guy that is quite likely to never even be as good as Barnes will be right away.

More times than not the NFL team is going to take the guy with the higher ceiling. When you finally "hit" on a pick like that it is a big deal and such a huge reward that teams see it as worth the risk.

I guess I just look at is a fan. If I watch the Browns draft I don't want them taking questionable athletes that had good collegiate production. I want them to take elite athletes who, with proper coaching & scheme, can potentially become stars. Production at the college level is important, but when it comes to the draft it takes a back seat to evaluating the actual skillset that a player can bring to the table. As a Browns fan I wouldn't be excited about having Barnes on the team, other than the fact that he's from BG. I certainly want nothing to do with similarly productive college players like Toby Gerhart & Colt McCoy either. Production on the college level just doesn't translate that particularly well to the NFL.

[hammb]

, but I don't think it's wise to dismiss the measurables. Let's face it, if the NFL didn't use that data as at least part of the evaluation process, they wouldn't collect it.

The bottom line is that history is littered with lower tier athletes that excelled in college and then did nothing in the pros. We hear about the hard workers that go on to become great NFL players, but for every one of them there are countless guys who didn't have the size, speed, strength, whatever, to make it on the next level.

It's a lot easier for a front office to take the guy that has the natural gifts and coach them technique, work ethic, etc, than it is to take the hard worker and hope he develops into a better athlete.

[Redwingtom]

I still don't understand why if the 40 time is so important, that the NFL combine does not have the players in full pads with helmet and timed from a two point stance like they would be in a game.

[SidelineScouting]

The difference between running the 40 yard dash in 4.6 as opposed to 4.5 is 7.2 inches per second. If a particular pass play takes, say, four seconds to develop, that's 28.8 inches - close to two-and-a-half feet. In other words, the man you are covering is wide open.

I see a slight flaw in your logic. You are assuming that the cover guy is also a 4.6 speedster. So If both are 4.6, they are running stride for stride with each other. But if the WR is 4.5 against a 4.6 CB, then yes, you create that theoretical 28.2 inches of seperation. But if that WR is 4.6, lines up the slot and is covered by a 4.8 LB, well you do the math.

Also, the DB lines up at lease one yard (36 inches) in front of the WR. So the WR has to be at least 0.2 seconds faster to just get by the DB.

On top of that, that's all straight line, no pads, no helmet running. Football speed is WAY different than a track speed 40 time.

Honestly, I think 40 time is one of the most over-rated statistics for a football player.

I don’t understand what you are trying to say here. What you said in your first paragraph is the exact point I was making. But, I’d speed up those times to represent actual NFL players. If a WR runs a 4.35, and a DB runs a 4.45, they can get that extra 28 inches when running a deep route. The same can be said if a WR runs slow, which is exactly why people get concerned about WRs who can’t run fast. A WR (like barnes is reported) runs in the 4.65 range, they have trouble getting separation. Even if they get open on a double move or a precise route, the faster defensive back will be able to recover quicker.

What you said about the DB lining up a yard in front of the WR makes no sense whatsoever. In most cases DBs line up about 5 yards off the line of scrimmage and start out in a backpedal. CB speed is more important in their hip rotation. If a CB has 4.2 speed but can’t turn quickly, then that 4.2 is null because they still let their guy get past them. WR’s don’t have to be 0.2 seconds faster than the corner they are facing, they just have to get separation whether that be from route running or speed. And this isn’t to say that a slow receiver wouldn’t be able to get open in the NFL, just look at a guy like TJ Houshmanzadeh. But the fact of the matter is, speed does matter in many instances, so it’s an evaluation tool that teams use.

I take a lot more stock in the 10 yard splits when I see them because players aren't running 40 yards straight very often. 10 yard splits give you a good indication of their short area explosion and acceleration which is more indicative of a game situation.

[Warthog]

What you said about the DB lining up a yard in front of the WR makes no sense whatsoever. In most cases DBs line up about 5 yards off the line of scrimmage and start out in a backpedal. CB speed is more important in their hip rotation. If a CB has 4.2 speed but can’t turn quickly, then that 4.2 is null because they still let their guy get past them. WR’s don’t have to be 0.2 seconds faster than the corner they are facing, they just have to get separation whether that be from route running or speed. And this isn’t to say that a slow receiver wouldn’t be able to get open in the NFL, just look at a guy like TJ Houshmanzadeh. But the fact of the matter is, speed does matter in many instances, so it’s an evaluation tool that teams use.

And by saying a CB lines up even farther off the ball and has to turn around is the point I'm making. You can't simply say that is the WR runs an x 40 and the CB runs an x + 0.1 40 that the WR will be 28 inches ahead after 4 seconds. There are so many other variables in the equation that speed is only one consideration.

What about bump and run coverage where the CB slows down the WR right off the line? What about the safety coming over to help? What if the defense is playing a zone? Then speed is almost completely irrelevant and it a matter of recognizing the coverage and knowing where the gap is going to be.

I take a lot more stock in the 10 yard splits when I see them because players aren't running 40 yards straight very often. 10 yard splits give you a good indication of their short area explosion and acceleration which is more indicative of a game situation.

That's more in line with my thinking. A fast 40 time is great, but most routes are not 40 yard patterns, much shorter. So a measure of how quick a player can cover a shorter distance makes more sense. But again, a lot of passing is timing. The WR has to be in the correct location when the QB is ready to deliver the ball.