24's 2010 BGSU season predictions

[bgsufalcon24]

In what is pretty much a yearly tradition for me, I look ahead to our upcoming season, as well as that of the Mid-American Conference. This season is strange. For one, it's totally crept up on me. Second, it's probably the hardest year that I can remember trying to make a prediction on since I started doing this in 2005. Maybe it's because I'm not in BG every day any more, not watching practices, not getting to know the ins and outs of the team, etc, but it could also be that we lost a lot of players from last year's teams and there are question marks abound. Interestingly enough, I feel a lot more confident about my picks for the conference than I do with our team.

So here is BGSU's season, as I see it just days before the season opener. (As a preface, I've been very good some years, hitting 2007 and 2009 perfect, and very bad in others, missing badly in 2005 and 2008)

September 4 - @ Troy
This should be a tough contest, probably the toughest out-of conference game BGSU will play this season. Troy is fast, well-coached, and are very talented. BG's 31-14 season opening win last season was probably the best game they played all season in 2009. BG has a history of coming strong out of the gates, but against a tough opponent away and with a new quarterback and offensive scheme, I'm going to say we drop this one. L (0-1)

September 11 - @ Tulsa
This is a winnable game as Tulsa isn't the imposing force that we've seen in recent years, which BG should know better than anybody thanks to a 63-7 beatdown in the 2007-08 GMAC Bowl. Depending on how BG comes out of the opener offensively, the Falcons could have a good shot at this one. I'm still going to say that the defense is giving up points in gobs in the early going though, and that allows Tulsa to win. L (0-2)

September 18 - Marshall
Marshall is a middle-of-the-pack CUSA team, not really dissimilar to Tulsa, except that Marshall is more running & defense based as opposed to a spread passing team like Tulsa is. That fact alone I think helps BG, as a decent offensive showing, particularly with the ground game, will score enough to win as BG's linebackers are the one area of the defense that I think is truly improved this year. I'm really concerned about the secondary. So it was a loss at Tulsa, but BG notches their first win of 2010 at home. W (1-2)

September 25 - @ Michigan
This is an extremely winnable game. Michigan is in the midst of their worst down cycle that I can ever remember, although some college historians will probably point to one prior being worse for all I know. Michigan's offense is lacking at best, though they have some stability at quarterback, which is always a concern for the BG defense. The key to winning this game will be the passing attack, it Schilz (sp?) has developed well in the first three games I could definitely reverse my position on this come gameday, but for now, I think Michigan wins it. L (1-3)

October 2 - Buffalo
I think with Turner Gill moving on and with a large class of players gone, hard times are likely to set in on Da Bulls this season. The Falcons have played some real thrillers with Buffalo in recent seasons, including a triple overtime thriller in 2006, the double overtime heartbreaker in 2008 that could've cost BG a MAC title in my opinion, and the come-from-behind win in 2009. If the Falcon offense has developed well in the non-conference slate, I don't see this one being quite so close. BG wins. W (2-3, 1-0)

October 9 - @ Ohio
Most publications have the Bobcats doing well this season, as they land mostly in the #2 hole in the MAC East. They are a team built mostly on running the ball in an option style attack, though losing Theo Scott might impact their attack somewhat. For whatever reason, BG has never had trouble winning in Athens, though winning at home recently has been another matter. This one's in Athens, so I'm going to go out on a bit of limb and pick BG to beat the Bobcats and reach .500. W (3-3, 2-0)

October 16 - @ Temple
This is the one game that I am absolutely convinced BG will lose in the conference slate. Temple is a rising program under coach Al Golden, a team that has come from the depths of the abyss to playing meaningful games down the stretch. Their defense is extremely good, and would be a load even for last season's BG offense. Plus the game is on the road. I like Temple here. L (3-4, 2-1)

October 23 - Kent State
As we well know, there are three things that are pretty much a given about BGSU football in the post-Urban Meyer era. First, BG will often win road games they shouldn't, which is why I gave a win against Ohio. Secondly, BG often loses home games that they shouldn't, so I'm looking for one of those. I'm going to make it this one because Kent isn't chopped liver, they started well last year and had they not come unglued against BG late they could've gone bowling, or even better. And I pick Kent also because thirdly, BG never wins on Parent/Family Weekend, a hex that dates all the way back to 2004. L (3-5, 2-2)

October 30 - @ Central Michigan
The Chippewas are probably the toughest team to figure out in this MAC mix. On one hand, they lost a ton of talent, including QB Dan LeFevour as well as coach Butch Jones. On the other hand, they've been very good almost every year lately, so it's not like their remaining players don't know how to win. This game could very well come down to which team develops their youth better and on how bad the injury bug has bitten at this point in the year, but BG can and often does win tough road games in the MAC. I say they beat the Chips here. W (4-5, 3-2)

November 10 - Miami
The Redhawks have really fallen on hard times, and are looking for really anything to hang their hat on. Their offense is incredibly inept, especially by MAC standards. While I could see a situation in which the BG defense totally no-shows like they did in 2007, this year, short of a mud-bowl in which neither team can throw (good luck with that on fieldturf), I think the Falcons make it 2 straight over the Redhawks. W (5-5, 4-2)

November 17 - @ Toledo
If this season plays out the way I envision, BG could still be in the division title chase at 4-2 heading to Toledo for their annual rivalry game with the Rockets. Much like BG, Toledo will be turning over lots of talent, including their quarterback. Rivalry games are always difficult to predict and especially with two younger teams. Again, player development and injuries will play a big role, but this much I know. When Toledo and BG meet up, lots of points go up on the board, and the team with the ball last often wins. BG has won the Peace Pipe 3 years in a row, but for some reason I have a bad feeling about this one. I say Toledo exacts some revenge and knocks BG out of the division and bowl mix at the Glass Bowl. L (5-6, 4-3)

November 26 - Western Michigan
Well, final game of the season, against the Broncos of Western Michigan, another team that has graduated lots of talent, including QB, and will likely fall in the standings a bit. Toledo and WMU are pretty much interchangeable in that they both usually have good offenses and that both teams will be very young at key positions, though WMU is usually better defensively. Maybe just out of spite toward WMU (still haven't forgiven them for the 2005 game) and because I don't see us finishing sub-.500, BG wins a close one at home to finish the season 6-6 and above .500 in MAC play. W (6-6, 5-3)

So that's where I think we'll stand when the season concludes. How about the rest of the league? Here's my predictions for the Mid-American Conference:

East Division
1.Temple
2.Ohio
3.Kent State
4.Bowling Green
5.Buffalo
6.Miami
7.Akron

Temple is clearly the top team in the East, with Ohio the probable #2, although personally I don't think they are much better than BG, if at all. Kent State is the one team that could surprise out of this group as they return more talent than most, including electrifying RB Eugene Jarvis. So 2/3/4 is pretty close. The bottom of the East is going to be downright awful. Akron and Miami are horrendous, and Buffalo isn't going to be much either, though they're arguably ahead of the other two doormats.

West Division
1.Northern Illinois
2.Ball State
3.Toledo
4.Central Michigan
5.Western Michigan
6.Eastern Michigan

The West is harder to project than the East, though there's no debate about the team at the top. Coach Jerry Kill is doing a phenomenal job in Dekalb, and the Huskies are the strongest, deepest team in the division. The other half of this equation is just how far will Central Michigan fall? That's tough to say. I put them 4th, behind BSU and Toledo, the former I put ahead because they have a true stud in RB Miquale Lewis and should be fairly strong defensively too. EMU is clearly the worst, but aside from 1 & 6, the 2-5 range wouldn't really surprise me no matter what order it came out in.

MAC Championship - Northern Illinois def Temple
Bowl teams - Northern Illinois, Temple, Ohio, Kent State