latest Bracket Projections

[gmartin]

Even though I knew it would be a shock to see BG name mentioned anywhere as a 'bubble' team or as in the 'first four out' group I went over to College RPI site to see the latest projections. The past 3 years they guy has been pretty accurate. More accurate than Charlie Creme. (61/64, 63/64, 62/64) in the past three years so I use his predictions over ESPN.

After looking at his teams in the field I really only have two arguments. Every at large team is we'll deserving and the other teams are current conference leaders. The only two problems I have is Rutgers and Michigan. I cannot stand Rutgers. All the Rutgers coach does is complain, complain and complain. Does a 17-11 Rutgers team deserve a bid over a mid major? How about a 17-11 Michigan team, which I believe is only 5-5 in its last 10 games. Does a 17-11 Michigan deserve to be in the field.

This year it is even more difficult to get an at large bid. Toledo is a #13 seed. BG is not even in the first 8 out of the field. Heck I even think if we even won at Evansville or. WMU we still would be on the outside looking in. I think no matter what the MAC will always be a one bid conference. It has been 15 years Coach Miller said since the MAC has had multiple teams. I am not saying BG deserves to be in this year but I think a 24-4 team should at least be in consideration over a 17-11 team.

[Class of 61]

My biggest concern with being passed by yr. after yr. would possibly drive certain coaches to another league...one with a "larger footprint" shall we say.... Don't care if T.Cullop goes, or B. Lindsay for that matter (he won't, by the way)... But we could possibly lose Curt and/or some assts. if we can't get to the dance with the kind of records we've had.... BTW, am I wrong, or do we now "automatically qualify" for the NIT as a result of clinching the E. Div.

[nwofalconfan]

The WNIT only offers one automatic bid to the team in the conference who finishes with the best record (if they don't go to the NCAA). Thus, Toledo, would be the team from the MAC at this point who is assured of a postseason spot.

[gmartin]

Correct! Toledo is the automatic qualifier to go to the NIT and let's leave it that way. BG wins the MAC Tournament and goes dancing and UT can keeps its NIT bid.

[bgsufalcon24]

Correct! Toledo is the automatic qualifier to go to the NIT and let's leave it that way. BG wins the MAC Tournament and goes dancing and UT can keeps its NIT bid.

The only way BG doesn't go to the WNIT is if somebody other than Toledo or BG wins the MAC Tournament. If Toledo wins it, BG would receive the automatic bid from the MAC since Toledo goes to the NCAA tourney.

Oh, and by the way, Michigan doesn't deserve to make the NCAA tournament, they've lost to 3 teams with RPIs worse than 100, BG's only lost to 2. So you can throw out the "bad loss" theory on that one.

[gmartin]

Just listened to Coach Miller on 1470 The Ticket. He was talking about the upcoming game on Wednesday about the 6 seniors getting recognized and closing out the arena and hoping for the largest crowd of the year.

He then went on talking about the NCAA and NIT births. He said if Toledo makes it through and wins the MAC Tournament BG would then get the automatic NIT bid as they finished second in the conference. If someone other than UT wins the MAC tournament then UT would take the automatic NIT bid and BG is in a wait and see.

He then went on to saying that he believes BG should be in a strong consideration for an at large bid if we win on Wednesday and make it to the MAC final. With a loss in the MAC final BG would be 27-5 and RPI around 40. BG current RPI as of today was 43.

He then went on and said UT RPI took a major hit with their loss at Northern. UT RPI dropped down to 68.

Coach Miller said 3 of BG 4 losses were by 1 pt and the committee does look at how you fared in your losses. Let's hope they don't look at our TWO bad losses (1 pt to Evansville and the bloodbath at WMU). He said ever win Vandy gets will help us and he hopes Vandy does well in its SECOND Tournament.

I would like to have whatever Coach Miller is smoking as we the chance of us getting an at large bid is just as slim as UT men's ending its 40 plus road/neutral losing streak and somehow win 4 road games to win the MAC Tournament.

If we do make it to the MAC final then these seniors will have won 110 games in their 4 year career. That's an average of 27 wins per year. I don't care if your UConn, Duke or OSU. 27 wins per year is impressive.

On a side note, the latest ESPN projection has UT a #13 seed and it could possibly face OSU in Columbus.

[bgsufalcon24]

On a side note, the latest ESPN projection has UT a #13 seed and it could possibly face OSU in Columbus.

That would be one case in which I would feel compelled to root for the Rockets. Screw OSU.

[gmartin]

Sorry for my typo's. Was sending my messages from my phone. Here is a comparison you can make

Which resume looks better?

24-4, 12-3, 8-2 last 10. 2 in point road losses. RPI 43
17-11, 10-6, 5-5 last 10 games. Most road losses were by double digits, RPI 42

Of course BG is the fist team. Michigan is the second team. Michigan is projected in whereas BG isn't even listed within the first 8 teams out. We are not even close to the bubble but comparing the two lines I would select BG over Michigan.

[UTWinz]

Last year Toledo, Eastern Michigan, and Kent St all got WNIT bids. Having said that Toledo and BG would def both get a bid in the case someone else wins the tourny. Id think we will have 1 NCAA and 3 WNIT teams again this year. Hopefully the MAC makes some noise in both.

[bgsufalcon24]

Last year Toledo, Eastern Michigan, and Kent St all got WNIT bids. Having said that Toledo and BG would def both get a bid in the case someone else wins the tourny. Id think we will have 1 NCAA and 3 WNIT teams again this year. Hopefully the MAC makes some noise in both.

Here are the MAC teams that conceivably could reach the NCAA (via MAC tournament win assuming no at-large bids) and WNIT tournaments:

Bowling Green - 24-4, RPI 42, SOS 162 - possible NCAA, WNIT lock if no NCAA
Toledo - 21-7, RPI 51, SOS 120 - possible NCAA, WNIT lock if no NCAA
Central Michigan - 19-8, RPI 82, SOS 146, outside shot at NCAA, very likely WNIT bid if no MAC tourney win
Kent State - 18-8, RPI 93, SOS 194 - exceedingly slim chance at NCAA, on bubble for WNIT if no MAC tourney win
Eastern Michigan - 18-11, RPI 118, SOS 151 - unlikely to receive WNIT bid (I don't give them any shot of winning the MAC tournament)

[gmartin]

Well Michigan probably played its way OUT of the tournament. They just lost in the Quarters of the Big 10 Tournament to Illinois. Illinois was 8-22 on the year and won only one game in its last 12 I believe. Illinois RPI was TERRIBLE. Illinois at one time was winning by 24 points

Michigan finishes as 17-12, and their RPI should really drop. It was 44 starting the day. If Michigan gets in over BG I am going to go postal. I am not saying BG should get in if they make the MAC final, but if UM gets in with 17 wins over BG with 27 then that is robbery.

Let's just hope more bubble teams play their way out.

[JoeFalcon]

All the Rutgers coach does is complain, complain and complain.

If we end up with a 40-ish RPI Christopher needs to throw his weight around the committee room and make it happen.

[gmartin]

Greg Christopher is not allowed in the room when the committee discusses BG resume'. Just like any other AD of a team being discussed in the field. But knowing that Christopher is the chairman of next years committee maybe they will take BG in more consideration than they previously would have. Regardless let's just end all the bubble talk and win the tournament.

[gmartin]

As of this morning's projections, Sun Mar 6, Charlie Creme and Jerry Palm each have Michigan as one of its last 4 teams in the field. Michigan is 17-12, 10-/ in Big 10. They lost to Illinois in the Big 10 quarters. Illinois has lost 12 straight games and its RPI at that time was 187. Illinois RPI now is still 163.

Michigan as said is 17-12, 10-6, 6-4 in last 10 games. Two bad losses in those last 10 games and RPI is currently 65. Rutgers isn't much better but they have quality losses and its RPI is low 20s so I know longer have an issue with them. I am not saying BG should replace Michigan as there are other teams with just as good or better resume but the bottom teams in the Big 10 are bad and Michigan feasted on the bad and had a 50/50 record against the rest. Curious to see how AD Christopher would do next year. Would he be for or against the power conferences?

[bgsufalcon24]

As of this morning's projections, Sun Mar 6, Charlie Creme and Jerry Palm each have Michigan as one of its last 4 teams in the field. Michigan is 17-12, 10-/ in Big 10. They lost to Illinois in the Big 10 quarters. Illinois has lost 12 straight games and its RPI at that time was 187. Illinois RPI now is still 163.

Michigan as said is 17-12, 10-6, 6-4 in last 10 games. Two bad losses in those last 10 games and RPI is currently 65. Rutgers isn't much better but they have quality losses and its RPI is low 20s so I know longer have an issue with them. I am not saying BG should replace Michigan as there are other teams with just as good or better resume but the bottom teams in the Big 10 are bad and Michigan feasted on the bad and had a 50/50 record against the rest. Curious to see how AD Christopher would do next year. Would he be for or against the power conferences?

Here's the strangest thing I saw on Palm's bracket. Three of his last four in appear to be mid-major schools, Northern Iowa, Gonzaga, and Duquesne, all of whom are seeded either 11 or 12. Northern Iowa and Gonzaga's resumes are almost identical to ours, so I don't see how they're in the field and we're not even in the last four out. Our quality wins are better than Northern Iowa and Gonzaga as well.

The only explanation I can see is that Palm is looking at our losses to Evansville and Western Michigan, and discrediting us as a result. (Can't necessarily blame him, both of those games were absolute backbreakers to our overall resume, if we won those we'd probably be ranked and looking at a 6 or 7 seed.)