Is now the time?

[hammb]

We've had a thread on here since our season ended that now was the time. There have been various other threads where people have claimed we must can everybody in our coaching staff...and those threads have mostly devolved into a couple people claiming this program is awful and beyond repair (by the current staff), arguing with others who state we need to shut up and support the team/players/coaches/program.

I haven't chimed into these threads too much, as I really haven't formed a solid opinion yet. However, I do definitely agree that now is the time for one thing, at the very least: Discussion of the future of this program. As we get ready to move into a shiny new arena, that will probably be one of the best in the MAC, is the program ready to start taking steps forward on the court as well? This is the question that I cannot yet answer myself, so I thought it'd be an interesting topic to discuss.

For starters let's look at the results, no better place to start a discussion than with what really matters:

2007-08 -- 13-17
2008-09 -- 19-14 (MAC regular season champ, NIT loss in Rd 1)
2009-10 -- 14-16
2010-11 -- 14-19

The first thing that jumps out at me here is that these seasons are all VERY comparable. I'm not seeing a program that is really moving at all...not forward or backward. None of these years are terrible, but none of them is truly great either. The best season culminated with a MAC regular season title and NIT berth, but was still an early exit from the conference tournament, and still wasn't exactly a great year. No 20 win seasons, nor any 20 loss seasons. I really think that based on the record there is no other word to describe what we've had in Orr's tenure than mediocrity.

Based on record alone I could certainly see the need to move in another direction. The program isn't a dismal failure under Orr, but it sure hasn't shown to be moving forward either.

The next thing I want to look at is recruiting/player development. There is no doubt in my mind that this is the single biggest factor in running a successful college basketball program. What level of talent is being brought in, and are those players improving after they arrive on campus? Systems and gameday decisions are great, but it's the ability to recruit and develop talent that got Dakich run out of town, and it's what needs to be the focus of any coaching staff, IMO. So let's look at Orr's classes:

2007 - Joe Jakubowski, Cameron Madlock
2008 - Austin Calhoun, Dee Brown, Scott Thomas
2009 - Luke Kraus, James Erger, Danny McElroy, Jordon Crawford, DaVon Haynes
2010 - Cameron Black, Craig Sealey, Anthony Henderson, Torian Oglesby

Hmmm...I think in some cases we're moving in the right direction here, but tough to say for sure. The '07 class was basically a wash. Jakubowski played a lot because we had nobody else, but never developed into even an average MAC PG. Madlock transferred. The '08 class gave us 2 decent contributors in Thomas and Brown, and a guy who has the talent to dominate this conference, IMO. Grades pushed Calhoun's development back a year, but this guy can and will be a dominant MAC player if he keeps his head on straight. The '09 class is, unfortunately, looking similar to the '07 class. Kraus, McElroy, and Crawford will all play and contribute, but none really has much upside, IMO. Haynes is already gone, and Erger should not be a D1 player, IMO. Obviously the jury is still out on 2010. Oglesby is a good JuCo pickup, but will never be more than solid. I think Black & Sealey both have tremendous upside, so their development will be key to this class. Henderson has redshirted, but he looks to be a pretty good athlete (possibly the most athletic guard we've had since Lewis), but until we see him play who knows what we'll get.

Overall, Orr has had some hits and misses in recruiting, but he has yet to really recruit and develop a guy into somebody that can consistently take over games. I think Calhoun has the talent to be that player, but his grades held him back. He's had a couple guys transfer out, but I don't think that's probably that uncommon. At least it hasn't been contributors bolting like it was for Dakich...the guys that have left under Orr never played much. He has yet to recruit and develop a guy into an All MAC caliber player, and that is very disappointing. However, I do think there are players here with some very good upside. Calhoun, Black, Sealey, and Henderson all have ALL MAC potential, IMO. Crawford's size will always be a limitation, but he can be an average MAC PG, IMO.

Finally, any discussion about the state of the program and the direction we should head has to include a discussion on the finer points of coaching. Offense and Defensive systems, how a coach plays matchups, substitution patterns, etc. And when you get to this part of the discussion I really think we've hit on the biggest weakness of this current staff.

For starters, all too often the team comes out flat. It has been an ongoing issue thoughout Orr's tenure, and it continued this season. We'll occasionally get our doors blown off by other MAC teams, even on our home floor. That cannot happen. The ability to motivate a team is definitely not their strong suit.

Beyond that the systems we play have me scratching my head. I hated Dakich for his insistence on fitting every player into a pure Man to Man defense...he never even considered playing a zone no matter how bad his team was getting beat up and no matter how much foul trouble players got into. Orr is the exact same about his 2-3 zone. We can have a VERY good zone defense, but when it's getting shredded Orr never switches to a man or even a different zone. I really don't understand the insistence to play every possession of every game in the same defensive set...really seems to be giving up something. Offensively, I oftentimes have no clue what the hell we're trying to do. A lot of times they'll isolate Calhoun on the block, but when they do they give him no options when the double comes. Rarely is anything created on the perimeter, where they'll either pass the ball around the outside, or just keep coming off screens even though we have no players that can consistently hit a shot off a screen. Occasionally they'll run a nice looking Pick 'n' Roll, but that is all too rare. The base defense is solid, but stubborn, and the offense is just mind numbing...

The substitution patterns are the same thing. Players will have a good game and play 20 minutes one night only to sit the bench the entire game next time. They refuse to play matchups, insisting on players only at the positions where they are deemed to be. This part really makes no sense to me whatsoever.


So, when I look at the overall picture I still don't know what to think. On one hand I'd like to see a new coach in here, but I'm not completely sold that's the right answer because I know we could do far worse. As maddening as the mediocrity has been, we've at least been mostly competitive every year. As much as I don't like this staff on gameday, I do see some high upside talent. I still think that is what this comes down to: Can this staff develop that talent? And, perhaps more important, can they continue to bring in more high upside talent? I believe Jehvon Clarke might fit that bill going into next year, so that's something to watch as well.

I think, right now, I still want to see one more year with this staff. Calhoun seems to have his grades in line and I want to see how he can develop as a basketball player. I think Crawford can be an average MAC guard, which is (unfortunately) an improvement over what we've had in recent years. I think Black and Sealey can give us some very good minutes, and have good upside. The big key for me is what steps do these players take going into the '11-12 season? This team MUST put together a 18+ win season next year and they MUST show individual improvement from these key players. If we don't see progress in those guys a change absolutely MUST be made next year. That being said, I definitely think there is a strong case to be made for making the change now.

So what say you? What do you all think needs to be done...and WHY. I don't wanna hear we need to change just because we've been mediocre. I also don't want to hear we need to stay with the status quo because we need to support the team. I'm curious what things you like and what things you dislike about this staff and the direction of the program. Is now the time?

[Globetrotter]

I say that's a good analysis. I agree with everything there but I think you downplay Crawford's talent. I think he can be a first team MAC guy.

To fire or not to fire? I think he is closer to a pink slip then an extension. I think that you said why in the above perfectly. Why I think that firing might be in the best interest for the program has less to do with him then the current situation with the program. With the gigantic gift and the opening of the Stroh we have somewhat of a perfect storm to 1) Get more and more funding 2) Get a coach that might not have come here in the past.

1) Get more funding
The Stroh itself will lead to more interest in the program. To take advantage of that interest I think we need a very charismatic CEO of the Basketball program. Orr and Miller may be those men. I have seen very little of both speak, especially Miller. As I have said I have seen little of Orr but in terms of a charismatic figure head that will get people to follow the program, I think he leaves a lot to be desired. I just don't see him as overly well spoken and the "To god be the glory" thing that starts his press conferences turns me off so I am sure it does others. I would love to hear others take on his overall ability to connect with fans and Donors. Grant and Hammb among others will have a much greater awareness of his ability in this area. I do think its a bit telling that he has been here for 4 years and I don't know. It is a new era in BG basketball, taking advantage of that is important.
2)Get a coach that might not have come here in the past. Great facilities, we can likely pay more than we have and, however ridiculously cut throat and unloyal this is, Orr has built a pretty athletic/talented team. (I felt gross even typing that)

I don't think he has been bad enough to deserve firing, but if we wait a year we could be wasting a huge opportunity.

[Hdog]

Now is not the time. However, I agree with Globetrotter, Orr should be close to a pink slip.

He deserves our full support this coming year, but the results have to be there [winning record, MAC tourney finals at minimum]. 5 years of status quo is more than enough to judge a program's direction.

I see problem's with: 1] recruiting and 2] Orr setting the right tone [sense of urgency from players].

I do agree we have more talent than in recent years, but I think some of us are looking at our program in a vacuum. Our expectations need to be WAY higher than this if we want to compete with the Butlers and Gonzagas of the world as Mr. Frack so aptly said.

I think I’m alone when it comes to Orr's game day coaching decisions. I believe most of his decisions would work well IF he was a better leader on NON-game day. What kind of practices does he run that we would EVER come out flat on our home floor and get beat by 20 or 30 points? That is really the heart of the issue in my opinion: If you are overly laid back, I think that translates to BOTH recruiting and the current team taking on your personality over the course of time.

Does he really try to hard sell some of these recruits? You’ve got to seem like your OVERTLY interested in them or they may think you’re NOT interested. There is an art to this so you don’t come across as a pest. Some people have that personality, some don’t. I’m not convinced Orr would come across like he truly WANTS the recruit he’s talking to. BIG PROBLEM

[orangeandbrown]

My biggest worry is that I don't think Thomas or Brown were much better as juniors than they were as Sophomores. Your players need to get better. Kent has a lot back and Akron brings in some transfers....just getting a year older will not get this team in the East hunt.

[hammb]

I say that's a good analysis. I agree with everything there but I think you downplay Crawford's talent. I think he can be a first team MAC guy.

I really like Crawford's game. He's lightning quick with the ball, and equally quick defending the ball. I think he'd probably be more valuable as a man to man defender against the opposition's PG. He can really pick a pocket, and he always finishes on the break. I don't see him as a first team all MAC guy just because he's not a great natural shooter (very streaky), and his size really hurts his ability to finish in half court sets. If he improves his jumpshot drastically then I could see him at that level, but I just never count on a guy to improve his jump shooting.

To fire or not to fire? I think he is closer to a pink slip then an extension.

Definitely agree there. I would absolutely NOT be thinking contract extension. While my conclusion is that I think he deserves at least one more year, I'd rather see him fired than extended at this point.

As I have said I have seen little of Orr but in terms of a charismatic figure head that will get people to follow the program, I think he leaves a lot to be desired. I just don't see him as overly well spoken and the "To god be the glory" thing that starts his press conferences turns me off so I am sure it does others. I would love to hear others take on his overall ability to connect with fans and Donors. Grant and Hammb among others will have a much greater awareness of his ability in this area. I do think its a bit telling that he has been here for 4 years and I don't know. It is a new era in BG basketball, taking advantage of that is important.

I don't like to hear the "To god be the glory" thing either. It doesn't really bother me, but I don't think it has any place in an interview either. I realize it's his belief and he's a Christian, but I've never been fond of having religion brought into places where it has no business, but that's just me.

As for how he is connecting with donors and whatnot, I'm probably not the best to answer. I'm just a nobody who loves the program, goes to a whole lot of games, and wants to see them succeed. I don't go out of my way to talk to or get to know the coaches, nor do I really attend many of the schmoozing type events/banquets/etc. If I had to give my impression of this I would say that Orr seems like a quiet guy who would be friendly and more than willing to talk to anyone who wanted to chat with him. However, I also don't think he's the personality type to be rah-rah and be somebody that I would genuinely enjoy hearing speak.

I do agree with you that with a school of our size having this personality to draw people in is a VERY underrated skill. It's something Urban & Dakich both excelled at. It was by FAR Dakich's greatest strength, and was one of Urban's best attributes as well. I just don't get that same vibe from Orr, and I do think it's something that needs to be said. At BG the coach needs to be the face of the program and needs to sell the program. I know that winning is always the bottom line, but I do think there's something to be said for this personality trait, especially at a school where we struggle to get more than 1500 fans and a couple hundred students to a game.

I don't think he has been bad enough to deserve firing, but if we wait a year we could be wasting a huge opportunity.

That's what I'm afraid of too, and why I think this certainly merits discussion. I personally lean towards giving the staff another year, but I'd hate to look back in a few years and realize we waited a year too long.

[hammb]

My biggest worry is that I don't think Thomas or Brown were much better as juniors than they were as Sophomores. Your players need to get better. Kent has a lot back and Akron brings in some transfers....just getting a year older will not get this team in the East hunt.

This is definitely something that worries me as well.

Brown & Thomas have not really improved. Jakubowski never really improved either. I kinda get the impression that Calhoun is the same guy on the court today as he would have been the past 2 years as well if he had played. You can't build a program if your players (especially guys like JoJak, Thomas, Brown getting all that experience) don't get better.

All of us talking about higher expectations next year (completely justified, IMO) are doing so because we expect guys like Crawford, Calhoun, Black, and Sealey to get better next year. I do worry though, because we really haven't seen any players in Orr's tenure make those big steps. We also want Brown or Thomas to become team leaders, but if they were going to be that, wouldn't they have been this year when they were Juniors and our most experienced guys on the court?

I think the staff gets one more year to show they can develop talent after they get to BG; failing that you can bet I'll be adamant about making a change a year from now.

[ZuluWarrior]

I've been vocal and I'll keep my comments condensed.
We've been mediocre if we use the MAC as our point of reference the last four years. We've been a bad basketball program if we are comparing ourselves in Division 1 College Basketball.
In 4 years:
1 honorable All Mac Player --
An OOC schedule that is soft with a record that is awful (particularly this year) --
A .500 or so record in the MAC which has been as weak a MAC as I can remember in 20 years
Mediocrity in the MAC today is a bad program if you compare to the overall college basketball picture.
Would I say 1 more year if the MAC was as strong as 7-8 years ago? To be honest, probably not. We move into a new building, we start fresh next season. We drew 2,500 fans for the closing of Anderson Arena which I believe was caused by a decade of a bad Men's basketball program.
I really love our Women's program, have since Fran Voll, but they should not be outdrawing the men.

[Globetrotter]

My biggest worry is that I don't think Thomas or Brown were much better as juniors than they were as Sophomores. Your players need to get better. Kent has a lot back and Akron brings in some transfers....just getting a year older will not get this team in the East hunt.

This is definitely something that worries me as well.

Brown & Thomas have not really improved. Jakubowski never really improved either. I kinda get the impression that Calhoun is the same guy on the court today as he would have been the past 2 years as well if he had played. You can't build a program if your players (especially guys like JoJak, Thomas, Brown getting all that experience) don't get better.

All of us talking about higher expectations next year (completely justified, IMO) are doing so because we expect guys like Crawford, Calhoun, Black, and Sealey to get better next year. I do worry though, because we really haven't seen any players in Orr's tenure make those big steps. We also want Brown or Thomas to become team leaders, but if they were going to be that, wouldn't they have been this year when they were Juniors and our most experienced guys on the court?

I think the staff gets one more year to show they can develop talent after they get to BG; failing that you can bet I'll be adamant about making a change a year from now.

I think that both Crawford and Calhoun were much better at the end of the year then what they were to start the year. Now I dont have any idea if thats coaching or not. It might just be pt and experience in situations. Calhoun in particular had a much better shot selection at the second half of the season.

[CrazyFan]

All good takes and good points, so here is mine, touching on a lot of hammb’s points:

1.) Our record. We’ve had 3 mediocre seasons and 1 good season, but were not showing any improvement. You look at ANY successful coach in college basketball that coaching record is going to show improvement, maybe not in year 1 or year 2, but the following years when that coach gets his own recruits and system in that team starts to fly. Here, we had a dismal first year, which is fine, had a good second year, which is great, but the third and fourth years are back to dismal. And hammb states we have been competitive in those years, but if you look back at some of our losses you can make a claim that we really haven’t. We play in a poor poor conference now a days and this is all we can muster?? Come on. So Strike 1.

2.)Player Development. Not really anything to write home about. Globetrotter thinks he saw a lot of improvement in Crawford and Calhoun but I really didn’t see it. There’s going to be more comfort in your game towards the end of the season because you just played 30 games with the same players, and that’s what I saw. But I really didn’t see improvement, especially when they allowed themselves to get blown out by 30 at home against Crackron. And I think Calhoun and Thomas are the keys to the development question. We all expected them to be studs when they were brought in, but they got what, 1 honorable mention between the two of them to show for it for the last couple of years? And the 09 Class is in my book has turned out to be horrible, so I wont even go there, in fear of upsetting a few people on this board. So in my book Orr and his staff can’t develop their players. Strike 2.

3.) Coaching (Offensive/Defensive Schemes & Substitution Patterns): Im right there along with hammb. Couldn’t have said it any better. On offense we look lost. We look like were waiting on one another to take over the play and make something happen and nobody does. Nobody has the kill mindset; to take over the play and drive to the basket and make something happen. I know damn well that we have a player or two on the floor that can do it, but the mindset isn’t there. Their not looking to do that, and that is completely the fault of the coaching staff. They aren’t teaching the players the kill instinct. I don’t think they can. There to laid back. Now I’m not saying that the players don’t have the know how or that they haven’t done it, but nobody does it consistently, especially when the team really needs it. The last player we had that would attack that basket from every angle and wasn’t afraid to attack it and take over a game was Nate Miller, and he wasn’t even a Orr recruit (And he won Orr his tie for the MAC Championship, but, again, I wont go there because I’ll ruffle a few feathers and get the “A Championship is a Championship” line). And on defense, it’s good when it’s good and it’s horrible when it’s bad. You live or die by the zone, and we sure can have a mass suicide with ours. As hammb stated, if we switch it up and run a few different sets at teams and confuse them a little bit, we’d be far better off. And substitution; well, you can say this is my biggest problem with Orr and why I believe he needs to go now. I have never seen a coach lose as many players on the bench as Louis Orr has. The only sense I can make of it is he forgets. And I don’t want a head coach who forgets to put his best players in at key times. Instead we get a 4-5 minute dose of Erger, which is like the kiss of death to any game. So Strike 3, but he’s still not out. There’s more…….

4.) Team Leadership: As I previously mentioned in this post and in a previous thread 2 days ago (and hammb mentioned), this team has absolutely no leadership. And the part that worries me is if we had a person on this team capable of being a team leader, capable of being a Nate Miller and carrying a team on his shoulders, that person would have stepped up by now on a team that has been without a leader for two full years now. You would expect one of the upcoming juniors or seniors to step up, but they have already had that chance as sophomores and juniors on a team where there was no senior leadership to be heard of. And I again put this on the coaching staff; you can tie it to recruiting and you can tie it to coaching and the mindset they are instilling in these players with. How nobody wants to step up and be a team leader is something Ill never understand. Grab the chance when you can. So Strike 4.

I will take 1 strike back because I do believe Orr and his staff has recruited some good talent (except 09 class), which is something this program sorely needs, but he’s still got three strikes in my book and he should be outta here! We are opening up a brand new facility, a new chapter in Bowling Green State University Basketball, and we deserve the best chance going forward with this program, and another .500 season with inept basketball will drive all those fans trying to come back away again. Just remember, Crackron, Kent, Miami, Western and OU are all returning some really good talent, so as we get better, they get better. I just don’t see us blowing any roofs off next season with this current staff and system in place.

[Warthog]

I've become more of a casual fan over the last few years, so maybe I'm not the best one to comment here. BUT, I think part the reason I'm more of a casual fan is because Coach Orr has done nothing for me to get excited about. I can't even remember that last game I went to. And it has gotten to the point that I would rather go to the gym and work out than sit through 2 hours of painfully boring basketball.

And I do have to agree with several of hammb's point. Substitution patterns (or lack thereof), schemes, leadership, there are so many things that seem to be lacking.

Isn't there some kind of saying like 'If you aren't moving forward, you're moving backward' because everyone else IS moving forward? Seems like we are treading water at best. If we made a coaching change right now, I would be fine with that.

[BleedOrange]

We have 3 years remaining on Orrs contract. BGSU would have to pay Orr $504,000 (3 years X $168K per year). I doubt that we have that kind of cash available. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but all this discussion seems moot.

[Redwingtom]

@HDog...yes, Orr has to have a winning record, but I don't think anyone would expect him to be able to get them to the MAC Tournament Final next year. You need a really good team and everything to go right to get there. That's quite a bit to ask for next year and I could in no way see that as a requirement for him to remain.

@BO...if Orr needs to go, money will be found. I wouldn't even give that a moments thought.

[VDub26Falcon]

As someone who hasn't paid NEARLY enough attention to the goings on of Falcon Basketball over the past few seasons, the records speak volumes as to the stagnancy (is that a word?) of this team. The good players aren't getting better. JoeJak is a perfect example. He was a starter last season and this year, instead of stepping up and taking charge of the team as a leader, he ended up barely playing down the stretch. Is Orr not pushing the seniors and juniors to step up or is it something else? We may never know. All I know is one season of lucking into the regular season championship is not enough. I say give the man one more year to turn this ship around. Maybe playing in a brand new building will provide a spark of emotion and get this team going again! Forward Falcons!

[hammb]

We have 3 years remaining on Orrs contract. BGSU would have to pay Orr $504,000 (3 years X $168K per year). I doubt that we have that kind of cash available. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but all this discussion seems moot.

Wow. I had no idea that he still had 3 years remaining on his contract.

That's insane. I'm guessing that he must have been given an extension after the '08-09 season? Man, I hate giving contract extensions to a guy after one good year (and it wasn't even that great).

Well, I still think that if we wanted to fire him the money would probably be there. I sure as hell hope that the money is prepared to be there next year, because if this team fails to take a step forward then there will be no way you can justify giving him more time.

[Drago]

Rarely are contracts guaranteed for 100 cents on the dollar....My guess is he has a buyout for approximately one years salary....who gave him this extenstion? Oh it was our great AD...another great decision. I don't mind Orr, I think he will compete for a title every 4 or 5 years. I think Clawson was a bad hire, and none of his other hires have done anything to even show moderate improvement.