What the bowl picture looks like right now

[jpfalcon09]

Who do you guys think will get left out? I have a feeling we will be odd team out regardless of what happens this weekend.

CMU is out already. Western Kentucky will likely be next, then you have three teams at 8-4, BG, OU and Middle Tennessee. Whoever is deemed the least attractive out of those three is out. Is it BG? Who knows. That's why fans need to hope both UConn and Pitt lose tomorrow so that there's no guessing game going on.

[BGFalconfromCincy]

Report is out that San Jose St. has accepted a Military Bowl bid, likely the one vacated by Army.

story on that

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/co ... story.html

[thewebboy]

Here is what needs to be done...

Figure out mathematically how many FBS teams can finish above .500 in a college football season (include all scenarios and championship games).

Take that number and divide it by 2.

That number should be the cap for amount of bowls.

Reward teams for WINNING seasons.

Done.

[jpfalcon09]

Okay, so I'll try to make sense of all this. Currently, there's six bowls out there who don't have their tie-ins met.

BBVA Compass - Big East
Liberty- Big East
Independence - ACC and SEC
Military - ACC
Pizza - Big Ten
Beef o' Brady - Big East

Three of the six bowls have Big East tie-ins, which is why Saturday's games are so pivotal. Its essentially a two team swing if UConn or Pitt win tomorrow, they get in and an at-large gets left out.

Here is the current, updated list of available at-large teams:
BGSU
Ohio
Ball State
W. Kentucky
Middle Tennessee
LA Tech
UL-Monroe

CMU is already out with GA Tech's BS waiver filing. So, if UConn or Pitt win, scratch one off that list above of going to a bowl game, period.

One would assume Ball State is probably the safest team on that list at 9-3 and three wins over BCS qualifying teams. Next is likely LA Tech as they defeated Illinois and Virginia and went to OT against Texas A&M. UL-Monroe defeated Arkansas and lost tight games to Auburn and Baylor. Ohio defeated Penn State and Middle Tennessee defeated our good pals at Georgia Tech. So, that leaves BG and WKU with winning records, and WKU has a "signature" win over Kentucky. BG has a close loss against Florida as the best non-conference showing, but also beat Ohio head to head.

So, there are the options that bowl committees have. They'll want to choose teams with good records but also who defeated recognizable names to sell tickets and generate interest. This is where BG falls short and honestly doesn't make them an attractive sell to many, outside of their top-10 defense. We need to hope like all hell the chips fall the right way or else there may be a good chance BG is sitting at home in December and January.

[kdog27]

Thanks for the info.

[BGFalconfromCincy]

WKU has a "signature" win over Kentucky.

If this was basketball I would agree

[jpfalcon09]

WKU has a "signature" win over Kentucky.

If this was basketball I would agree

Hence the quotations.

[bg1984]

I'm trying to simplify this because life is complicated enough. I checked almost all of the Bowl projection sites and each one have us in a bowl except for Phil Steele and he has
U. Conn. in. My gut feeling/hope is that if Cincy beats U. Conn we are good to go. I don't see USF beating Pitt but at least they have them at home. Pitt has been ALL over the map this season...lose to Youngstown State and get destroyed by Cincy then nearly beat Notre Dame. Who knows which team shows up in Tampa. If U. Conn wins, I'm not so sure about our chances. I would feel better if this game was in Cincinnati but at any rate, we ALL just became Bearcat fans!

[jpfalcon09]

Word is out of Cincy that Butch Jones has accepted the Purdue job. Better hope that doesn't distract the players at UC tomorrow.

[BGSU33]

Who do you guys think will get left out? I have a feeling we will be odd team out regardless of what happens this weekend.

I also have a bad feeling we're going to be cut out. After the Buffalo win, I felt about 90% sure we were in a bowl. Then after 9 of those 12 games last week went against us, it went way down. Then with Georgia Tech getting the waiver, I feel about a 10% chance right now. Unless Cincy or USF wins, I think we're F'ed. I think if we don't make it, we're going to be "the" last team not to get in and that it will be Ohio - a team we beat head-to-head and finished two games ahead of in the MAC standings - that will edge us. I hope I'm wrong, but that's my gut feeling right now.

[jpfalcon09]

Who do you guys think will get left out? I have a feeling we will be odd team out regardless of what happens this weekend.

I also have a bad feeling we're going to be cut out. After the Buffalo win, I felt about 90% sure we were in a bowl. Then after 9 of those 12 games last week went against us, it went way down. Then with Georgia Tech getting the waiver, I feel about a 10% chance right now. Unless Cincy or USF wins, I think we're F'ed. I think if we don't make it, we're going to be "the" last team not to get in and that it will be Ohio - a team we beat head-to-head and finished two games ahead of in the MAC standings - that will edge us. I hope I'm wrong, but that's my gut feeling right now.

Plain and simple, its 50/50 right now. We need help, and if we get it, we're in. Even if one of Pitt/UConn wins, I still like our chances above a 7-5 WKU team. If they both win? I think BG is out, no questions asked. The only way we're in is if the Pizza Bowl thinks a UT/BG Bowl game will be a better matchup than anything else out there and we luck out.

[BGFalconfromCincy]

there will be a MAC school in the Military Bowl - the MAC's twitter feed just sent out that the conference reached an agreement with the game to have a team play in it

[Falco_peregrinusana]

there will be a MAC school in the Military Bowl - the MAC's twitter feed just sent out that the conference reached an agreement with the game to have a team play in it

Hey, doesn't sound like the Military Bowl is a big fan of WKU...

[Schadenfreude]

It's been interesting to puzzle over whether Ohio would get placed in a bowl ahead of Bowling Green should it come down to us two.

Truth is, the bowls might find Ohio a bit more attractive, given their signature win against Penn State, their brief national ranking and their stronger home attendance.

But we did beat the Bobcats on their own field. That might matter more than conventional wisdom normally dictates. Remember, the MAC is in the thick of helping to engineer many (if not all) of these deals. The conference might be inclined to push us a bit harder, given that we were clearly the better team on the field. If either school is willing to help cover the cost of the ticket guarantee, it might not matter to the bowl that much which one it gets.

Also: This idea of a rematch with Toledo in Detroit is kind of cool the more I think about it. It's not ideal, of course (my personal preference would be a game in DC against San Jose State).

But I'd love a second shot at Toledo. It would certainly sell tickets. And it would certainly beat not playing in a bowl at all.

[jpfalcon09]

Just a note, with the Military Bowl agreement, if UConn and Pitt both lose tomorrow, BG is in no matter what. MAC has secondary tie-ins with the BBVA Compass and Beef o' Brady Bowls, both Big East slots.