Well, BG is virtually certain at this point to finish 11-5, since Ohio and Kent are the two worst teams in the MAC and have a combined 2 wins among each other. The trouble is that since the MAC is so top-heavy this year, 11 wins might not be enough to come up with a top 4 finish in the conference.
Akron and Miami play each other on Sunday. I'm inclined to root for Akron. An Akron win keeps them in the lead, while a Miami win creates a 3 way tie atop the East Division. Miami's final game is at Ohio, which they are virtually certain to win, so a Miami win tomorrow probably means both Miami and BG finish 11-5 and they drop the hammer on us head-to-head. Akron meanwhile has to play at Buffalo on Wednesday, so they could possibly lose there. Does anybody know who would win the tiebreaker between Akron and BG?
Even if we don't win the tiebreaker against Akron, we WOULD win a tiebreaker with CMU if they drop either of their final two games. They play a couple of lowly opponents in NIU and EMU, but both are on the road. The last possibility would be for Ball State to drop both of their final two games. BSU has to play at Toledo on Wednesday, but they have an easy one against Western on Sunday, so they'll probably get win #12 there.
It's looking bleak. That loss at Western KILLED us. No way in a million years we should've lost that game. That game is going to keep us out of the top 4, and maybe even out of the top 2 assuming Ball State loses to UT and Akron doesn't win out! That's how enormous that loss was...having to play possibly THREE more games in the conference tournament because of that one bad defeat. ARRGGGH!!!
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I already did the math and it looks ugly. Right now it's Toledo, Ball State, Central and Akron then Miami and BG, with 2 games to go. Assuming BG wins out, Central plays Western and Eastern on the road and has to lose one for BG to beat them. Akron has to beat Miami or Miami has to lose at Athens for BG to beat them, or Ball State has to lose to Toledo AND Western at Muncie.
I wouldn't bet on any of those options. Only BG can figure out a way to lose at DeKalb.<<---- Yeah, I meant K'zoo.
Replying, in order, to the two notes above this one...
bgsufalcon24: Akron wins a 2-team tiebreaker over BGSU, because the Zips would have a better record within the division than BG. It would help the Falcons to have Akron beat Miami tomorrow, because BG would then be ahead of Miami (who also holds a tiebreaker over the Falcons because of a sweep of the two regular-season meetings between the teams).
Hoopsfan: Not sure what you're getting at with your 'only BG can figure out a way to lose in DeKalb' remark. If you're saying this year's BG team has been inconsistent at times, I will not disagree with you. However, maybe you should have said 'Kalamazoo' instead of 'DeKalb' because I'm pretty sure BG hasn't lost in DeKalb since something like 2002 or 03.
Thankfully Randall is on her last year of her contract. She isn't a good coach and can't recruit. An entire class of recruits have not contributed (they aren't good). Winning 6 games is just plain awful. Hopefully they'll find someone at the conclusion of this season to help right the ship. Yikes.
Well, it all comes down to CMU vs EMU now...if the Eagles beat the Chippewas at home on Wednesday, that would move BG up from 5th to 4th. (Assumes BG beats Kent, which is basically a foregone conclusion)
Akron is 11-4, Ball State 12-3, Central Michigan 11-4. It's quite possible that all three of those teams will finish 12-4. That WMU game man...
24. Quality provider of the truth, for better or for worse.
If I'm not mistaken I think they did away with divisional champ being the guaranteed #2 seed. That's why OU on the men's side has already claimed the #2 seed. Ball State would be ahead of Akron on seeding.
, positive energy
