NIU = BCS

[hammb]

But, if the MAC performs well out-of-conference, then it makes the conference look good. The year College Gameday came to BG, they talked about all of the success the MAC had that year against the BCS schools. I'm sure that played into getting Gameday in Bowling Green, OH for that game. They had other options I'm sure, with bigger named opponents, but the fact that both BGSU and NIU were performing extremely well that year, and the MAC was having such huge success, helped sway them to coming here for their telecast.

Now granted, one year doesn't make a big difference, but if we can continue to get those big name wins then it'll say something. If BG had beaten even one of IU or MSU, BG would be very close to ranked and the MAC would have a slightly higher opinion in the national landscape. If Akron has pulled off the win over Michigan, or Buffalo over Ohio State, that would have said something. Besides, if Buffalo had beaten Ohio State, then a win over Buffalo for us is "bigger" nationally than if they didn't beat OSU, simply due to strength of schedule. Would NIU be higher in the BCS standings had Akron beaten Michigan? NIU beat Akron. Northern and Toledo play tomorrow, and Toledo lost to Mizzou. What if Toledo had won that game?

If NIU has proved anything it's that positive national perception can be gotten on the cheap. They've risen high in the national polls without a monumental, earth-shattering non-conference win. They've played the Akron that didn't beat Michigan and it didn't hurt them at all. You would think perception and quality of opponent would matter more but it clearly doesn't in the eyes of the pollsters. A gaudy record alone is good enough for them.

On the flip side, their showing against Florida State last year in the Orange Bowl is also leading to pollsters to intentionally hang them back in the Coaches Poll from getting into the Top 16. They're better than Fresno but apparently those who vote are going to give Fresno the chance to be the BCS-buster school.

Fresno has a possible top 50 pick playing QB for them as well. That doesn't hurt in the eyes of the voters.

Yeah, but if you look at the BCS standings, NIU is behind Fresno because of the human polls. The computers put NIU ahead of Fresno. The computers have NIU ranked 12th on average compared to the average ranking of 16th for Fresno. One computer even has NIU ranked 3rd in the nation.

That was my point. I think the voters are also putting Fresno a touch higher based on having a marquee player. NIU doesn't have that. Not on the same level as Carr is for Fresno.

[hammb]

About 20 years ago NIU got too big for their britches and decided to flee the MAC and go independent.....they came crawling back.

This. Don't expect the MAC to gain anything as a conference if they get to the BCS.

Go BG!

This is false.

The distribution of BCS money is set in stone by the BCS. Every school in the MAC stands to get about an extra million bucks if NIU makes a BCS game again.

How they use that money is obviously up to each individual institution, but if it's put towards keeping existing coaches, expanding recruiting budgets, or the like then it most certainly will have an impact on the conference as a whole.

Anybody that is a fan of a MAC team should be rooting for NIU to make a BCS game. Now obviously I'll be rooting against them if BG matches up in the Championship game, but in any other scenario, getting a MAC team into the BCS qualifies as a financial windfall for every member of the conference.

[Schadenfreude]

The other MAC schools are BG's direct competitors. They actively recruit against us. The moment they get a big non-conference win they call, text, Facebook and Tweet that news to their recruits with the expressed purpose of swaying them away from BG and any other schools that might be in play. I'm not going to smile when a competitor amasses and deploys ammunition against us.

What is good for them is more often than not bad for BG on the field and in the recruiting wars. Screw 'em.

Fair point. There is something to that. But a couple of other things to think about:

First, think back to 2003. Northern Illinois beat Alabama, Iowa State, and Maryland that season -- and yet I would rather have been in Gregg Brandon's shoes during the following recruiting season. That's because, Miami aside, he took care of business in conference play. The Falcons won the west and they finished nationally ranked. I would submit that the Falcons' national ranking probably would not have happened had Northern Illinois and other MAC schools (Toledo beat a ranked Pittsburgh and Marshall beat a ranked Kansas State that season) not done so well in nonconference play.

Yes, the Falcons took care of business. They won at Purdue, which was a good win, and Northwestern was a decent win. But other schools' nonconference wins definitely helped Bowling Green and Miami get taken seriously. I don't think either of our schools would have been ranked anywhere near that high without all the other schools felling some serious lumber in September.

I think we saw some of that last season, too -- except that Kent State and Northern Illinois were the beneficiaries, this time, of the strong nonconference play.

I would also submit that Northern Illinois' Orange Bowl bid helped us at least as much as it hurt us. The fact that the Huskies could pull that off -- and that Kent State very nearly did -- shows that other MAC schools could make that happen too with a few more players and a few breaks. That's a point we definitely should be making to recruits, especially when going up against a Minnesota or a Cincinnati. We are not as far away from the bright lights of a Fiesta Bowl or an Orange Bowl as we may have seemed before. It can be done from Perry Stadium.

I hear what you are saying. Yes, I wince when Toledo beats a Michigan for the obvious reasons. But, overall, I think the Falcons are better off when the MAC is doing well in nonconference play. I don't think it's any different for us then it is for Connecticut in the American or Ohio State in the Big Ten. A rising tide lifts all boats. I'd rather succeed (or at least try to succeed) in a strong conference than a weak one.

[mscarn]

Fair point. There is something to that. But a couple of other things to think about:

First, think back to 2003. Northern Illinois beat Alabama, Iowa State, and Maryland that season -- and yet I would rather have been in Gregg Brandon's shoes during the following recruiting season. That's because, Miami aside, he took care of business in conference play. The Falcons won the west and they finished nationally ranked. I would submit that the Falcons' national ranking probably would not have happened had Northern Illinois and other MAC schools (Toledo beat a ranked Pittsburgh and Marshall beat a ranked Kansas State that season) not done so well in nonconference play.

Yes, the Falcons took care of business. They won at Purdue, which was a good win, and Northwestern was a decent win. But other schools' nonconference wins definitely helped Bowling Green and Miami get taken seriously. I don't think either of our schools would have been ranked anywhere near that high without all the other schools felling some serious lumber in September.

I think we saw some of that last season, too -- except that Kent State and Northern Illinois were the beneficiaries, this time, of the strong nonconference play.

I would also submit that Northern Illinois' Orange Bowl bid helped us at least as much as it hurt us. The fact that the Huskies could pull that off -- and that Kent State very nearly did -- shows that other MAC schools could make that happen too with a few more players and a few breaks. That's a point we definitely should be making to recruits, especially when going up against a Minnesota or a Cincinnati. We are not as far away from the bright lights of a Fiesta Bowl or an Orange Bowl as we may have seemed before. It can be done from Perry Stadium.

I hear what you are saying. Yes, I wince when Toledo beats a Michigan for the obvious reasons. But, overall, I think the Falcons are better off when the MAC is doing well in nonconference play. I don't think it's any different for us then it is for Connecticut in the American or Ohio State in the Big Ten. A rising tide lifts all boats. I'd rather succeed (or at least try to succeed) in a strong conference than a weak one.

These are sound arguments.

Was cracking the BCS ever really that difficult to begin with, though? There are six conferences that automatically qualify and four others that are eligible if they perform well enough and the math works out. A sizable part of that formula is the polls, polls which are disproportionately and simplistically based on W/L records. Run up a showy record from one of these conferences and into the BCS you go. We just have never done it.

The MAC has been its own worst enemy by failing to exploit this mile-wide opening for the non-automatic qualifying schools that Boise (WAC), Utah (Mountain West) and TCU (Mountain West) demonstrated was attainable. NIU was our exemplar but my contention is that we never really needed one. We just had to win games. If any one of our past champions had gone undefeated they’d have likely been in:

2011 NIU-3 losses
2010 Miami-4 losses
2009 CMU-2 losses
2008 Buffalo-6 losses
2007 CMU-5 losses
2006 CMU-4 losses
2005 Akron-6 losses
2004 Toledo-3 losses

It ain’t the Rosetta Stone; going undefeated (or as close to it as possible) is the formula that gets you there. The real trick is getting into the national championship picture, and if the conference has to knock off enough of the big boys to force itself into that discussion, I suppose the net value for BG would be worth it.