Bracketology 1/20

[AyZiggy97]

Charlie Creme is out with Bracketology for 1/20 and has BG in the Next Four Out, also what could be seen as the last 8 at-larges under consideration. He answered a couple of my tweets after I saw his post that BG's non conference schedule was not good enough to get in by at-large bid.

Creme: Teams are evaluated as teams, it's not, & never has been based on what league they are from. Marist profile much better than BG

Q: Marist's profile is "much better than BG" ?? They have head-to-head, but slightly better at most aside from that.

Creme: SOS isn't close.

Q: I guess if the BG NC sked is prohibitive, it seems counterintuitive to have them Next 4 out.

Creme: Not necessarily. Dsn't mean BG isn't considered,all relative to everything else. Teams aren't evaluated in bubbles.


I don't know what his track record is, but ESPN has him back every year to do WBB Bracketology. I also have no idea whether BG should be in consideration for an at-large spot or not. I'd hate to think that a season ending with a 4th loss in the MAC championship would come down to not winning at Purdue.

The Women's Basketball State site had BG's current RPI at 44, non conference RPI at 16, overall SOS at 155, and non conference SOS at 145.
Marist has and RPI of 43, a non conference RPI of 105, SOS of 62, and non conference RPI of 14.

Maybe BG shouldn't have played Niagara, UMass, or St. Francis, but they had to get some home games. I'm guessing it's not the easiest thing for them to do. Marist somehow scheduled home games against Kentucky and Oklahoma. So, maybe that is BG's fault.

[BG.WBB.Fan]

New "guess" by Charlie out today - BG is now in and interestingly we are a 10 seed while CMU is an 11.

[BG.WBB.Fan]

Bracketology link

http://espn.go.com/ncw/bracketology" target="_blank

[BGFalconfromCincy]

and look who the first team out is

[Class of 61]

All of this, of course, means absolutely NOTHING at this time an place....just a supposed "educated" guess as to which teams will be in and where they will go.... I don't follow this guy so I don't really know...how accurate has he been in the past few yrs.?

[gmartin]

BG wins twice last week by an average margin of 35 pts and CMU wins by average of 7 pts.

BG drops from 30 to 35 this week in the rpi ratings and CMU goes from 38 to 31. Guess a 20-3 record just isn't good enough yet. At least if we beat CMU we will get another quality win.

[bgsufalcon24]

Our RPI was hurt this week by the fact that a lot of teams important to us lost this week. Iona lost to a HORRIBLE Rider team (RPI 233), and Marist was stung by a marginal Fairfield team (RPI 96) at home. Meanwhile, Ohio State is now just 14-13 after getting flattened by both Purdue and Penn State, neither result of which was completely unexpected, but still it leaves the Buckeyes just 4-7 in B1G play. Michigan lost this week too, also to Purdue, though they did beat Northwestern which was good to see.

Bottom line, these teams losing, especially the two MAAC teams, is causing our schedule to not look as good as it was last week. Our SOS dropped from 139 last week all the way to 165 this week. That's a big drop, especially for this late in the season.

I really thought at 20-3 we wouldn't be sitting on such thin ice, but some external factors are really not going our way.

[BGFalconfromCincy]

I really thought at 20-3 we wouldn't be sitting on such thin ice, but some external factors are really not going our way.

While we are 20-3 we've lost to probably the three best teams we've played, as you noted our SOS isn't very good, and we're a MAC school. Not surprised at all that we are on "thin ice"

[BGFalconfromCincy]

Latest update now has BG as an 11 seed (last team in) in College Park, Maryland against Texas, with CMU a 10 seed

[bgsufalcon24]

I really thought at 20-3 we wouldn't be sitting on such thin ice, but some external factors are really not going our way.

While we are 20-3 we've lost to probably the three best teams we've played, as you noted our SOS isn't very good, and we're a MAC school. Not surprised at all that we are on "thin ice"

I would disagree with the assertion that Marist is better than Ohio State...OSU did beat Marist head to head earlier this season, but I definitely see what you're saying. I can identify 6 games this season against teams in the top 100 of the RPI, Michigan, Iona, Purdue, Marist, Ohio State, and Central Michigan...and BG has gone 3-3 against those teams. That's likely not any better than any of the other bubble teams have fared against teams of that caliber, though I'd have to investigate further to know for sure.

No doubt in my mind, had we been able to beat Purdue, this would all be a moot discussion and BG would be a lock. Alas, it'll take winning out until the MAC tournament final or winning the tournament outright to get to NC's. I'm pretty much convinced that we're going to beat CMU at the Stroh next week...the real land mines, IMO, are the remaining road contests at Buffalo and at Akron. Those aren't going to be gimmes, and a loss in either will knock BG out of at-large contention. (Obviously a loss somewhere else will too, but that would require a real shock defeat against somebody like Kent or EMU)

[threestooges]

I really thought at 20-3 we wouldn't be sitting on such thin ice, but some external factors are really not going our way.

While we are 20-3 we've lost to probably the three best teams we've played, as you noted our SOS isn't very good, and we're a MAC school. Not surprised at all that we are on "thin ice"

I would disagree with the assertion that Marist is better than Ohio State...OSU did beat Marist head to head earlier this season, but I definitely see what you're saying. I can identify 6 games this season against teams in the top 100 of the RPI, Michigan, Iona, Purdue, Marist, Ohio State, and Central Michigan...and BG has gone 3-3 against those teams. That's likely not any better than any of the other bubble teams have fared against teams of that caliber, though I'd have to investigate further to know for sure.

No doubt in my mind, had we been able to beat Purdue, this would all be a moot discussion and BG would be a lock. Alas, it'll take winning out until the MAC tournament final or winning the tournament outright to get to NC's. I'm pretty much convinced that we're going to beat CMU at the Stroh next week...the real land mines, IMO, are the remaining road contests at Buffalo and at Akron. Those aren't going to be gimmes, and a loss in either will knock BG out of at-large contention. (Obviously a loss somewhere else will too, but that would require a real shock defeat against somebody like Kent or EMU)

I think the entire at-large discussion is moot, for several reasons:

First, no MAC team has gotten an at-large berth since 1995. That doesn't mean it couldn't happen in 2014. But, it's too early to think about it, because...

Second, BGSU would have to win every game from now until the MAC Championship. That would mean a home win over CMU and road wins vs. UB and UA, as was mentioned earlier. Not saying BG can't win all of them, but one stumble and the at-large conversation goes out the window.

Things like Charlie Creme's bracketology are good for stirring up conversation (obviously), but I think they can be taken with a grain of salt at this point. As has been the case every other year, BGSU can eliminate all speculation by winning the MAC Tournament. That's the option I'd recommend.

[AyZiggy97]

BG would have likely been an at-large selection in 2007. As a 7 seed, they were higher than other at- larges.

I'd also point out that BG isn't necessarily the "last team in." It's pointed out by the people who publish these that the committees look at teams in groupings. Hence the "Last 4 In" & "First 4 Out." At some point one team has to make it and one team has to be #65. But while BG's resume might be among the last 4 in the field, the Falcons being that last team isn't a given.

[musicman2343]

Updated bracketology as of today (March 3):

BG is an 11 seed playing #6 Texas in College Park

He has us in all caps which means "automatic bid"

[gmartin]

CMU is listed as 1st 4 out.

We each win out to the MAC final I could see both of us making it. Too bad we could play in West Layfette. Rematch with Purdue.

[bgsufalcon24]

Updated bracketology as of today (March 3):

BG is an 11 seed playing #6 Texas in College Park

He has us in all caps which means "automatic bid"

Notably...Central Michigan is still not in the field, listed under "Last 4 Out". One of the teams in the "Last 4 In" is Florida State, who is 6-8 in the ACC. I'm sorry, but if you're not even .500 in your own conference, you don't deserve a bid to the NCAA tournament. Period.

In all honesty, I would much rather draw a 10 or an 11 than an 8 or a 9 seed. If you draw 8 or 9, at best you're going down in round 2. If you draw a 10 or an 11, not only do you have a good chance at victory in round 1, but facing the 2 or 3 seed in round 2 is a hell of a lot different than having to face a 1 seed. I feel that if we bring our best on any given day, we could take out a 2 or 3 just like we did in 2007.