NIU preview

[MarkL]

So for starters, I have to relay a fun story. I have a little nephew who has become quite adept at his ABC's. While at my folks' house for Thanksgiving, this little nephew of mine came across a stuffed Freddie the Falcon doll wearing a BGSU shirt. He properly read aloud the letters "B G S U", which was followed by cheering from both his proud parents and his proud Falcon uncle. His father then asked what kind of bird the stuffed doll was, to which he replied "a toucan!" So that's it folks, we are the BGSU Toucans.

So up next for our first post-season game is the Northern Illinois Huskies. NIU won the MAC West with a record of 10-2 (7-1). Their one loss was to CMU, and they won the west thanks to beating that team up north and a nice comeback win last week over a stunningly good WMU team. We've got a rematch of last year's MAC title game, but both teams are way different than last year at this time.

Offense
- NIU averages 30.6 ppg, which is basically identical to our 30.8. In conference play, they average 28.625 ppg, which is literally identical to our 28.625 ppg in conference play. Statistically these offenses are as evenly matched as possible.
- The main QB we'll be dealing with is sophomore Drew Hare. He has hit 150 of 250 for 60.0% (talk about some nice even numbers in the stats here!) for a bit under 1900 yards.
---- NIU is definitely not a pass first offense as the stats show, but something pops at me here. He has a 15 / 1 ratio.
------- That's correct, 15 TDs to only 1 pick.
- NIU is a run first team, and their leading rusher is also the leading passer, QB Drew Hare.
---- Hare is 6-1, 215, so a good sized runner, and he has 133 rushes for 790 yards (5.94 average) and 7 TDs. He's definitely not a Jordan Lynch, but when the QB is your leading rusher you have to be concerned defensively.
------- He's excellent at running the zone read, and we've been burned recently on zone reads by the QB.
---- The second leading rusher is senior Cameron Stingily. He's a big guy at 6-1 235 and reminds me a ton of Ball State's Edwards, who just shredded us to pieces. Stingily is tough to get to the ground.
------- NIU so often uses Stingily as a one-man offense in the second half. He physically wears out the opposing defense and breaks tackle after tackle while moving the chains and milking the clock. He makes it very hard to come back against NIU.
------- Stingily has 779 rushes on 160 for a 4.87 average and 11 TDs. I'm trying to find how many fumbles he has and am having a rough time finding a site which tracks fumbles in individual rushing stats, but I believe Stingily rarely loses the ball.
---- The third leading rusher is sophomore Joel Bouagnon. He's also a good sized guy at 6-2 222. He has 516 yards on 91 carries (5.67 average) for 5 TDs.
---- The fourth leading rusher is senior Akeem Daniels. He's a smaller guy at 5-7 189 and has 307 on 57 rushes and a TD.
---- The top three rushers are big, physical runners. In all three of our conference losses, we have faced big, physical rushers. I'd say we handled Jarvion Franklin of WMU well most of the game, but Hunt and Edwards just destroyed our D. Now we have an entire backfield of big, physical rushers to deal with.
------- If I'm NIU, I see a matchup to exploit. If I'm Kim McCloud, I stack the box to stop the run and force the pass.
---- I also have to point out that NIU, as a run first team, has only lost 8 fumbles.
- NIU does not pass much, but when they do, senior Da'Ron Brown is a pretty common target. He has more receptions (55) than the number 2 and 3 guy combined, more yards than the number 2, 3, and 4 guy combined (932), and 6 TDs. He averages over 16 a reception. Brown is 6-0 196, his 40 time doesn't exactly indicate a burner, but he gets open all the time. Think Freddie Barnes.
---- The second leading receiver is sophomore Aregeros Turner. He's a smaller guy at 5-11 172 and has 28 for 328 and 2 TDs.
---- Behind him is a big bodied guy, Juwan Brescacin, 6-4 224. He has 22 for 322 and 4 TDs. He's the only big bodied receiver. We had to deal with two big bodied guys against that team up north and I was pleased that we didn't get torn up by those two. I'm not as worried then as I would have been about a 6-4 receiver.
---- The fourth receiver is another smaller guy, Chad Beebe at 5-9 171 with 21 for 219 and a TD.
---- NIU is a run first team, so the receviers just don't put up amazing stats, but when you have a guy with almost 1000 yards receiving in a run-first offense, you know you can't blitz all day.
- I absolutely must point out that the offensive line is a veteran line. Three RS seniors, two RS juniors. It should surprise nobody that NIU runs the ball so well. Also, the head coach Rod Carey was the offensive line coach before being promoted to HC.
- When I look at the offense, I see a recipe for success in the MAC. Not a lot of turnovers, a lot of efficiency, and the ability to move the ball effectively on the ground.
---- Our rush D has been rather ineffective these last two weeks and I am definitely concerned about our ability to stuff Stingily. I feel like if we allow him to gain 5 yards consistently on first down carries, we are in big time trouble.
- The key to stopping the offense is to stop the run. I'm hoping to see us stack the box a lot and force NIU to pass. We did this strategy last year and Lynch was unable to beat us through the air. I'd try it again.

Defense
- NIU defensively allows 24.2 ppg, which is significantly better than our 32.5 ppg allowed. In conference play we are much more even though they still allow fewer points than us, 23.25 compared to 26.75.
- This is a defense with a lot of birthdays. Of their top 8 tacklers, 2 are seniors, 5 are juniors, and one is a sophomore.
---- Of note also in tacklers, 3 of the top four tacklers (when you consider total tackles, not just solo tackles) are defensive backs.
- The leading solo tackler is junior linebacker Rasheen Lemon, with 52 solo tackles. He also has 2.5 sacks. He seems to be in on a ton of plays.
- NIU does not really have an interceptions leader. They do have four defensive backs (three corners and a safety) with 2 picks each. The team has tallied a total of 11 interceptions.
- The defense has recovered a total of 9 fumbles, which is not a ton for 12 games in. They have forced a total of 20 turnovers.
---- Of note, they have only given the ball away 10 times, so they are +10 in turnovers. Impressive.
- NIU has recorded 26 sacks. That is a good number. (For reference, we have come up with 21 sacks and have allowed 22.) The sack leader is senior DE Jason Meehan with 7 sacks.
- Overall, NIU allows 4.14 per rushing attempt and has given up 20 TDs. (We rush 4.59 per attempt). They have allowed 2755 passing yards and 14 passing TDs against intercepting 11 passes.
- This looks to me like a solid defense. They do allow a lot of plays into the second level and they do not force a ton of turnovers, but they also do not allow that many points.

Special Teams
- I'll make this section short and sweet.
---- Punt returns: NIU's punt return unit is not scary.
---- Kick returns: NIU's kick return unit is not scary.
---- Punting: NIU's punting is decent, averaging 41 a punt.
---- Kicking: NIU has placekicking problems. It seems they've tried multiple place kickers, and the leader in attempts is 8 / 15 (53.3%) and leader in percentage is 3 / 5 (60%).

Overall
- Statistically, BGSU and NIU look very, very similar. If you break it down some, you'll see some vast differences.
- NIU is a run first offense, and you absolutely must prevent their power runners from chewing up your defense and the clock if you want to win.
---- We have been running a lot recently but we do not have a power runner. NIU does not give up a ton of yards per run, but they also haven't seen speedy rushers like Greene and Box, so we've got a chance to exploit their D with the speed run.
- NIU last year dominated the regular season with Jordan Lynch. This year they are nowhere nearly as dominant a team, but Stingily is able to help put away teams.
- Last week NIU had to come back from a 14 point deficit to beat WMU. It was mostly rushing as Hare only hit 9-20.
---- As a rushing team, NIU is not really built to win in comebacks, but normally they don't have to come back. They control the line of scrimmage and the clock.
- The way I see to beat NIU is the exact way we did it last year. It requires you to do three things:
---- 1. Get out to an early lead
---- 2. Stuff the run play
---- 3. Do not turn the ball over
- I genuinely believe that if we force Hare to pass on us by taking away the run, we will win.
- If ... if we can prevent Stingily and company from controlling the game, our BGSU Falcons ...er ... Toucans ... will win a second straight MAC title. If we play like last week, we will lose but it will be close. NIU does not seem to have blowout potential in them.

X Factors
- In lieu of my normal "be happy if / worry if" section, I'll point out some X Factors which can determine the game.
- Our offense has been dry recently and I think the weather has been a big factor. Knapke has looked bad passing in the cold. Now he gets to play in a dome. We might see his best performance since UMass.
- Last year, we came storming into the MAC title game with all the momentum behind us. We come limping in this year. The psyche is different right now and I hope the team does not mentally limp into this game.
- NIU was whipped last year and I know some players took it personally. They might be out for some personal payback this year.
- Babers has called the offense awfully vanilla for a few weeks. With the exception of Moore in shotgun, we haven't seen anything new. I see two possibilities
---- 1 - Knapke is about at his roof. Though I don't buy the Knakpe doom-and-gloom seen all over this board. I consider him, and the whole team, in transition this whole year.
---- 2 - Babers has something up his sleeve for this game. He's a gambler - he's gone for two earlier than needed, tried a fake onside kick, gone for it on fourth down instead of an easy field goal, etc. He may have another gamble we have yet to see ready for NIU.
- The MAC West is currently 15-3 against the East. Two of the East's wins are over EMU, and EMU played three East teams. The west is just so, so dominant over the east this year that I must remember to think about strength of schedule when looking at these stats.

[Falconfreak90]

Mark,

As always, very in depth and informative. The key for me is psychological. Will this team be able to rise up from the last two weeks and perform to their capability? We know the talent is there. Very little separates the Top of the MAC from the middle. Anybody can beat anybody.

GO FALCONS

[zete]

Mark L, this is impressive work you do as part of the week leading up to games. I see you are from DC area, thus erasing thought I had indicating you must be BGs SID. Anyway, thanks for the in depth and insightful postings.

[MarkL]

Thanks! It's been fun putting this together so far. It represents a good break each week and also an opportunity to learn more about each team in the conference. I can confirm that I am in fact not the SID. Our SID posts around here sometimes and he has way more insight into our Toucans than I ever could.
And Freak, I agree, the team's mindset will be a huge key to this game. Last year our team came storming into the game having won four straight blowouts. This year, they come limping in having lost two straight games to west teams.

[jpfalcon09]

NIU is going to load up Stingily and Daniels and try to win this game up front, similar to what Toledo did. BG's game plan should be to get an early lead and force Hare to throw.

As for the mental state of BG, I believe it's extremely difficult to get an entire team on the same page in only one week. I hope I'm wrong but the team has yet to put together a consistent effort all season and I don't see that changing Friday. I really, really hope I'm wrong.

[AyZiggy97]

NIU is going to load up Stingily and Daniels and try to win this game up front, similar to what Toledo did. BG's game plan should be to get an early lead and force Hare to throw.

As for the mental state of BG, I believe it's extremely difficult to get an entire team on the same page in only one week. I hope I'm wrong but the team has yet to put together a consistent effort all season and I don't see that changing Friday. I really, really hope I'm wrong.

I posted this in another thread, but I think it's fair. The team did bounce back after the blowout at Wisconsin with 3 straight wins and by winning the East after losing to Western Michigan. Heck, they even rallied to beat Indiana after the shellacking against Western Kentucky.

None of that guarantees a good performance against NIU. They probably aren't as good as 2013. But they have shown they can turn the page.

[mscarn]

Mark,

As always, very in depth and informative. The key for me is psychological. Will this team be able to rise up from the last two weeks and perform to their capability? We know the talent is there. Very little separates the Top of the MAC from the middle. Anybody can beat anybody.

GO FALCONS

Excellent point. Clawson used to talk about this a lot. He'd even take it a step further and claim the talent was fairly even from top to bottom, which I found a bit hard to believe with how Miami, UMass, EMU and WMU were so thoroughly dominated last year. 2014 rolls around and lo and behold EMU is beating Buffalo, UMass loses by 5 to Toledo at their place and Western looks like a different team.

The talent is there. It's a confidence/mental thing.

[thewebboy]

From the presser at Ford Field just now...

Coach Babers says BGSU will not practice on Ford Field today. Feels the team's ready.

Ready for what? I'd say we need all the practice we can get

[jpfalcon09]

From the presser at Ford Field just now...

Coach Babers says BGSU will not practice on Ford Field today. Feels the team's ready.

Ready for what? I'd say we need all the practice we can get

Not much to practice when you run the same five plays on offense. I can only imagine the posts on here tomorrow and this weekend if the team plays lackluster again. Babers and the team better back up the we're ready talk.

[Schadenfreude]

Perhaps Babers is looking at this like prepping for a college entrance exam. There isn't much point in cramming the night before for the ACT. Either you know the material, or you don't. Same for this team. They've had all season to get to this point. One more practice isn't going to make or break them.

Also, perhaps Babers thinks he has a couple of things that will catch NIU by surprise. (Will Ronnie Moore start throwing the ball? Do they have some inside slants worked out? Do they have a Poe Ditch Rat package? Is Callaway the super secret starter?) Maybe the Ball State game plan was intentionally vanilla, or something.

All that said, I am surprised the Falcons didn't get out on the field and at least do a light practice so that everyone could reacquaint themselves with the facility.

[thewebboy]

My expectations for this game are about what they were for last year's game...

--- NIU is the better team
--- We had an easy schedule in the East division
--- Don't get embarrassed

Our game plan should be similar to what we did last year too..

--- Get an early lead and make them pass.
--- Finish with TDs not FGs
--- Cause turnovers

[thewebboy]

Last game of the year, Brent, can't hold anything back now...