Thoughts on 2015 opponents and the MAC

[MarkL]

I have done a page like this for most of the past few years and have consistently received good feedback. Here's my initial thoughts on all of our opponents. I'm not making predictions, just thoughts about each team.
Note: Please, don't carry the debate over the merits / concerns of playing Tennessee into this thread. That discussion already spans ten other threads and is beyond the dead-horse-flogging phase. In 2011 I did not make such a request and this thread turned into a five page thread on the merits or concerns of playing one opponent (Morgan State) instead of looking at all of the opponents.
And fans of other schools: please join in! I'd love to hear your thoughts about your teams.

Tennnessee
Butch Jones wins everywhere he goes. So far his job at Tennessee is looking very similar to what he did at Cincinnati. His first year at both programs was rough but achingly close to successful as new starters on both sides of the ball were being tested year long. In both teams year 2 was a nice turnaround. UC won the Big East in 2011 where Tennessee became bowl eligible for the first time in years and stomped a good Iowa team.
Tennessee had been a trainwreck of a program ever since the 2008 season until Jones came along and provided stability. Stability is here. The team looks athletic and the offense looks scary, even scarier if the offensive line comes along. Defensively they'll be good and return most starters from last year. Offensively, Joshua Dobbs (QB) is probably the most electric player we'll see all year long. He's also a kid of high character ... and a great mathematical mind.
There's an excellent writeup on the team here by a Tennessee fan. I really can't add more than already is there. I'm looking forward to a fun game and I cannot wait to see our team fully healthy take the field.

Maryland
Randy Edsall is doing far better at Maryland than I initially thought he would. I frankly thought after his first year he wouldn't see 2013 as the head coach at Maryland. That all being said, 2015 will be a bit of a down year. Maryland has lost a lot of starters, including QB CJ Brown who guided the team for the past couple of years. Defensively Maryland should be excellent. Offensively this could be a struggle of a year.
I know we play Maryland again soon. I don't know exactly how soon. I say this because Maryland, while down this year, could be excellent in 2016 and beyond. There will be new starters all over the place in 2015 but we have personal experience seeing what an investment a rebuilding season can be. 2010 to 2013 anybody?

Memphis
Memphis is a solidly coached team. Like Maryland they lose a lot of talent and will be learning the ropes when we welcome them to the Doyt. Memphis was a great defense last year but loses most of their defensive starters so they've got some building to do. Offensively they've got an enormous QB (he's legit 6'7!) who is efficient and a good set of backs and receivers.
Now I know some people around here are saying that Memphis may be the best non-conference team we play. 2014 Memphis may be better than 2015 Tennessee, Maryland, and Purdue, but 2015 Memphis will be a step back. They'll be a good team but this is a bit of a building year.

Purdue
My MS is from Purdue, so I have a soft spot for this team. My career has been quite healthy so far and my Purdue Cyber Forensics degree was the starting point.
Anyways, what do the 2014 UT, NIU, and BSU teams have in common? They were all teams led by physical, experienced offensive lines who ran all over us. Why bring that up? Because all of Purdue's 2014 offensive line returns, and they are very good. No, Purdue, was not a great team last year by any stretch. But that offensive line was excellent and it will be better this year.
I want to beat Purdue. I think we can. Purdue in 2015 will be much better than 2013 and 2014. Coach Hazell will get the job done there, I am fully confident in him. I do worry about that line of theirs. I do worry that the offensive line and the run game can control the game and the clock and thus counteract the hurry-up offense.
That all being said about the offensive line, the rest of the team has problems everywhere. I can't name a single Purdue receiver. The QB situation is a mess. Defensively they are experienced but not all experience is necessarily good experience.
All in all, I'd say Purdue may be a way tougher opponent than anybody thinks. Not because the team is great, but because the matchup might be a nightmare for us.

Buffalo
Buffalo fired Jeff Quinn mid-season last year ... which I still think was a massive mistake. Quinn inherited an empty cupboard in 2010 and in 2013 the team was a loss to us from the MAC title game. 2014 was clearly going to be a down year with all the graduating players.
That all being said, Lance Leipold was an outstanding hire. He was a miracle man at Wisconsin Whitewater and now he is jumping from DIII to FBS. Of course there will be growing pains as FBS includes so many challenges (recruiting, scholarships, egos, politics, changing environment) but Leipold has succeeded everywhere so I expect he will do the same here.
I can't say much about UB. I thought their defense was clearly in rebuilding mode last year and their offense took off late. Running back Anthone Taylor had a great season and nearly led his team to a win over us. Beyond him I don't know what to think of their 2015 offense. What I do know is Leipold built his reputation at UWW starting on defense. UB's defense could be drastically improved in 2015.

UMass
Last year I said that EMU had the biggest coaching upgrade in the conference. I was wrong. Mark Whipple was the biggest coaching upgrade for the conference in 2014. UMass quickly found an identity - they could pass, pass, and pass some more.
UMass in 2012 was awful and in 2013 showed some signs of life. They erupted on offense in 2014 and though they didn't win many games, they were in just about every one of them. Now they return nearly their entire offense including one of the best receivers we'll see all year. Make no mistake, UMass is dangerous. They are one of the biggest challengers to us for the east title. It's a good thing this is a home game.

Akron
Everybody thought 2014 would be Akron's year. Akron was a solid team early but they fell apart late. Now they have most of the pieces coming back in 2015. They are well coached and have an experienced backfield and one of the better defenses in the conference.
Akron is also a serious threat to our third straight east title. Again, we are lucky to have this one at home. Though I don't think Akron will be a great team, I think they'll be a fine team. It is possible that 2015 Akron will be what everybody thought they'd be in 2014, which is an east contender and a bowl team.

Kent State
I truly feel bad for Kent State football fans. 2012 was a purely magical season. Just three years later, it feels like ancient history. Kent has been awful since that 2012 season. They were disappointing in 2013 and in 2014 they were good at nothing.
If you all remember, what triggered the 2012 season were three things ...
- a powerful back (Durham) and the fastest back I've ever seen in the MAC (Archer)
- a veteran QB who made all the right reads
- a disruptive defense with a dominant line and a smart secondary.
Now ...
- Archer is long gone, though Durham is still around. Durham has been ineffective since 2012, which to me means he was made more effective by the threat of Archer's speed ... and Archer was made more effective by the threat of Durham's raw power.
- Kent has iffy QB play and has no clear starter going into the season.
- The defense could actually be decent and the linebackers could be among the conference's best.
Kent shouldn't be worse than last year. They have to be a better team. Head coach Paul Haynes took over a team with all the momentum in the world and tanked it. I believe he's got to improve Kent to bowl eligibility or close to it or else Kent will be coach searching again.

Ohio
Frank Solich is a great coach. Every year his team is solid. Also, every year his team falls apart at one point or another. This year's Ohio team looks like it has a ton of potential, but so has every team for the past few years.
The question to ask is when we host them ... is Ohio gelling, or is Ohio falling apart? If Ohio is gelling, they are a legit chance to win the east. Yet again, we are thankful to have this game at home. On the flip side, if OU is slipping when we play them, this could be the fourth consecutive win in the series.

WMU
I don't have anything to say about the recruiting and the turnaround Fleck has accomplished at WMU that hasn't been said endlessly on AZZ. All I can say is this ... if WMU improves from last year, Fleck will be a Big Ten or another big conference coach in 2016. If things don't work out for Kevin Wilson this year, Fleck may be the type of personality to attract top level talent to Indiana.

UT
As I said in the Purdue section, UT beat us mainly because of the offensive line ... and our offensive woes. UT's entire offensive line has graduated. Matt Campbell is a great offensive line coach and he no doubt will have the line ready to go when we play in November, but you can't expect to replace 5 5th year seniors and find success in a single season. UT has exciting playmakers, an experienced set of QBs, a competent defense, and may well be the west's best team ... except the O line is the big question.
We get these guys at home. We need to beat them. No excuses. This is a must win game. All four of our home MAC games are must win games. We get the biggest three east contenders and our top rival at home. We must sweep our home MAC schedule this year. Most of all, we have got to beat UT and end this slide. I'm sick and tired of losing to these guys. I believe they will be ready and their offensive line, though inexperienced, will be at least fine when we play. We've got to bring our best game and end these guys.

Ball State
Ball State suffered all kinds of injuries last year which allowed young players left and right to play. At the end of the season they were a complete team and whipped us by dominating the line of scrimmage and choking us in time of possession. I know they've got to replace an experienced running back, but beyond that I think BSU is in pretty good shape. They'll find a good running back, they'll pass efficiently, and they'll play their normal bend-but-don't-break defense.
It was a bit embarrassing seeing our team essentially lay down against BSU last year. It looked like the team wasn't mentally into the game. BSU will be a better team this year. We'd better improve too because BSU is looking to me like a MAC west darkhorse.


And now for the rest of the MAC teams we don't play
MU
In 2013, you could make the argument that MU was the worst MAC team in the past 20 years. Just look at Bill Connelly's excellent 2014 preview of the team for a look at the awfulness of the 2013 team. Chuck Martin performed a minor miracle improving the team to 2-10 and hanging tight with some far better teams.
We won't play MU again until 2016. I wish we played them in 2014 and 2015 to get some more butt-kickings in because come 2016 they could be much improved. They have talented youngsters and a good coach. We have proven that formula works in this conference. Don't be stunned if MU is in the upper half of the MAC east very soon.

EMU
Poor EMU. In the MAC there is bad, and there is EMU. Every time a coach gets something working, the ground falls out from under him. Genyk sparked the offense to be damn good in 2008, but the defense was pathetically bad. Ron English had a nice 6-6 season in 2011 but 2012 proved it to be a mirage. Now Chris Creighton gets to try.
I like the Creighton hire a lot. He's done all the right things so far. Nobody could perform a miracle turnaround in a year at EMU, but I think Creighton is the guy to do a serous building job there. He has the attitude and the administration has the patience.
EMU won't be good in 2015. They have a young QB they can build around. They've got depth problems on defense but just enough defensive talent to work with. At some point EMU will get it figured out. I've said that for a decade now but dammit it's still true.

CMU
Besides CMU's thumping of Ohio, win over NIU, and exciting bowl loss to WKU, I don't know too much about CMU. I know they have a good QB returning but most of the rest of the offense is graduating. I know their defense hasn't been good since Butch Jones was around. And I know their head coach ditched the team to be the OC at Arkansas knowing he was probably getting canned after this year.
I know basically nothing about the new head coach. I know he was a special teams coach at the Lions and has not been a college coach or coordinator in forever. I know he's an alum and is ecstatic to be coaching his alma mater. I know nothing at all of what he has planned for the team.
The one thing I do know ... CMU's schedule is fit for a sleeper MAC west team ... if they have good coaching.

NIU
Don't buy into the WMU or UT hype just yet. NIU is stll the team to beat in the MAC. They have the deepest squad on both sides of the ball. Their offensive line was the strength of their team last year and though they lost some starters, they have depth.
Their QB Hare played far better against us in the MAC title than Jordan Lynch the previous year. Hare is a far better passer than Lynch was and is also a pretty dangerous runner. NIU has to replace their big running back and top receiver but they certainly have the depth to manage.
NIU is still the best of the west and probably the best overall MAC team. They have the formula for how to win in the MAC - build depth, build an offensive line, control the LOS and the clock, be at least competent on D.

So there's my thoughts on all of our opponents and the MAC teams we don't play. Overall I think the MAC can be summed up in a few quick thoughts ...
- The West was far superior to the East last year mainly because of physicality. Where the east teams are more built on offensive finesse, the west teams are built on offensive lines and running games. The trend may continue this year.
- 2003 was of course the best year for the MAC in recent history. That being said, 2012 and 2014 were both good years for the conference. Part of me thinks 2015 could be the deepest the conference has been in a decade.
- The team with the best offensive line has the best chance to win the MAC. That has been the trend the last few years and should be the same again this year.
- The talent level across most of the MAC is pretty similar. This explains how UB can rise out of nowhere in 2008 and MU in 2010 and win it all. The exceptions are EMU and NIU. EMU isn't going anywhere just yet. NIU has the best depth and has had the best depth for years and the results show.
--- It will be interesting to watch WMU for the next few years. They've brought in 3 and 4 star recruits left and right and though they had a terrific season, they had a disappointing conclusion. It will be interesting to see if all their talent translates to quality depth. Also interesting will be when Fleck inevitably leaves if the recruiting wins leave also.
- The conference schedule did us a real favor. Our four home conference games are the three best east teams and our big rival we must beat. We have to win our home conference games. Go 4-0 in home conference games and the rest will take care of itself.

So there's my thoughts. I hope this thread has some good discussion and insights about our opponents.

[mscarn]

Great analysis.

When's the last time we've had a schedule where there's not a single game you can point to as a surefire, definite win? Every team presents challenges, but then again there's no one on the schedule that would be completely impossible for us to beat. In the ESPN magazine preview, their formula gives us a 6% chance of beating Tennessee and below 50% chances for the rest of the non-conference teams with a high of 42% for Memphis. They've also got 3-win UMass winning the East so take them with a grain of salt.

We somehow manage to avoid the worst, lowest win teams in both divisions again in EMU and Miami. If the MAC is going to stick BG with 3 teams from the West and avoid playing a natural East division rival in place for decades (Miami) then the entire concept of divisions should be done away with because they're meaningless.

[footballguy51]

Great analysis.

When's the last time we've had a schedule where there's not a single game you can point to as a surefire, definite win? Every team presents challenges, but then again there's no one on the schedule that would be completely impossible for us to beat. In the ESPN magazine preview, their formula gives us a 6% chance of beating Tennessee and below 50% chances for the rest of the non-conference teams with a high of 42% for Memphis. They've also got 3-win UMass winning the East so take them with a grain of salt.

We somehow manage to avoid the worst, lowest win teams in both divisions again in EMU and Miami. If the MAC is going to stick BG with 3 teams from the West and avoid playing a natural East division rival in place for decades (Miami) then the entire concept of divisions should be done away with because they're meaningless.

I agree with your last sentiment wholeheartedly.

As for Memphis being the easiest win, that's simply ESPN being ignorant as always. [sarcasm]Memphis is from a non-P5 conference, so they must suck.[/sarcasm] If those hacks ever did a bit of work they'd realize the truth about many of these teams.

[MarkL]

They've also got 3-win UMass winning the East so take them with a grain of salt.

Not as far fetched as you may think. Their offense was incredible last year and only fell apart late when the QB was injured. They return basically their entire offense like we do. All they need is some defensive improvement and they can win the tight games.

Last year our game came down to the wire and involved both teams chucking the ball all over the place. It was the longest non OT BG game I think I've ever seen. Could be another great long game this year. I do think we've got better defensive talent so if our new DC works out we should be far improved.

[ZuluWarrior]

Great analysis, but where's Michigan?

[kdog27]

This is the first year we don't play Michigan.

[Falconfreak90]

Great write up Mark...Every game is winnable yet we could lose almost every one of them as well. Very difficult non conf schedule. D is the BiG ?

GO FALCONS!!!

[tvosra87]

Tennessee should be a good early test for our defense, especially going up against Jalen Hurd and Marquez North, both highly touted recruits. I just hope that our D, and especially our DL is much improved from a year ago, and up to the task. I think we had trouble last year against bigger run oriented offense due to our DL being so small, anyone have an idea of what the DL depth chart will look like heading into week 1?