Memphis predictions

[jpfalcon09]

BG 51
Memphis 45

I expect this to be a shootout of two high-powered offenses. BG gets the nod for being home behind a big crowd and makes enough plays on defense and forces a couple turnovers to come out on top. This will be fun!

[Beaker]

I think this one's too close to call as far as picking a clear favorite. May come down to an untimely turnover or penalty that makes the difference.

I think we'll see a good, entertaining game and hopefully everyone comes out of it with no serious injuries and we don't have a 3rd game in a row with lightning delays, ugh! Looking forward to being at the Doyt tomorrow!

[Falconfreak90]

Really could go either way. But I like the home crowd and excitement after the win over MD to carry BG to the win... close game, or at least it should be. BG will cling to a 48-45 lead late in the 4th as Memphis drives to tie or take the lead. Big pick six by clINT Stephens to ice it.

Falcons win, 55-45.

[MarkL]

[BGSU33]

I think this one's too close to call as far as picking a clear favorite. May come down to an untimely turnover or penalty that makes the difference.

I think we'll see a good, entertaining game and hopefully everyone comes out of it with no serious injuries and we don't have a 3rd game in a row with lightning delays, ugh! Looking forward to being at the Doyt tomorrow!

Those are essentially my thoughts too. But I think it's going to be a play made by one of the defenses that'll decide the game like an INT or fumble recovery. Nothing new to us but the wind looks like it's going to be a factor tomorrow too (weather said 15-25 mph) and that depending on the direction, that could make for some tough sledding for two quarters for the offenses. This could also be a game decided by a kicker like a big FG attempt at the end (hope Tate is back to his old form). I felt in the preseason that this was our second toughest non-conference opponent, and I still feel that way now. Our defense showed promise last week but this Memphis offense is way more potent than Maryland's was. For some reason I just feel like Memphis is going to win. Hope I'm wrong.

UM - 48
BG - 41

[Falcon137]

BGSU - 52
Fighting Penny Hardaways - 45

Memphis wins the AAC after losing to UC. That's a brutal turnaround. Especially when you consider there defense very well may see 100 plays, tomorrow.

[kdog27]

Touchdowns, no field goals and no going for 2.

BG 56
MEMPHIS 35

[tigerfanbritt]

Stolen from a local site

Three Keys to Memphis Victory:

Avoid a sluggish start

Last week in Lawrence the Tigers offense started off slow. Early turnovers led to a quick 10 point deficit. On Tuesday Memphis coach Justin Fuente was "furious" over his teams apparent lack of focus in practice and stated, "nothing" when asked what the Tigers did well. As the week has progress, Fuente's reports have gained in optimism for his teams focus. It is key that the Tigers highly important that the Tigers come out strong from the start of the game. You can afford sluggish starts against Missouri State and Kansas. However, if the Tigers dig a early hole against Bowling Green climbing out may be more difficult.

Control the clock/keep the ball out of Matt Johnson's hands

Bowling Green is going to score in this shootout of a game. At least that is the prevailing thought. The Falcons passing game has simply been on fire so far this season. Consider this, the Falcons quarterback, Matt Johnson, has completed nearly 61% of his passes for 915 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Johnson is having a storybook senior season to cap off a phenomenal collegiate career. The less time the Tigers, largely untested, secondary has to deal with Johnson, the better. The Tigers will be tasked with staying within their system while keeping their defense off the field.

Win two phases of the game

The focus on this game clearly will be the offensive display. Both Bowling Green and Memphis have very highly ranked offenses coming in to this game. Both offenses will be expected to score almost at will. So if we consider the offensive side of the game to be a toss up then the game, naturally, should come down to defense and special teams. Which defense gets that critical stop? Which teams return game puts their team in the best position to win?

To help determine which team has the edge I turned to ESPN and their team efficiency ranking. What I learned is that Bowling Green is largely carried by their offense. ESPN defines the team efficiency rankings as follows:


Team efficiencies are based on the point contributions of each unit to the team's scoring margin, on a per-play basis. The values are adjusted for strength of schedule and down-weighted for "garbage time" (based on win probability). The scale goes from 0 to 100; higher numbers are better and the average is roughly 50 for all categories. Efficiencies update daily during the season.

So lets compare the Tigers and Falcons defense and special teams:

Memphis Bowling Green
Defense Efficiency (ranking) 71.1% (42) 42.6% (92)
Special Teams Efficiency (ranking) 69% (35)
13.3% (122)




Advantage clearly goes to Memphis but how much is fool's gold? Lets keep in mind that the Tigers biggest question mark leading in to the season was the Tigers defense. Although, on paper, one could argue that the Tigers defense has played well it is still a valid point to wonder if it was due to competition. To win the game the Tigers will need to solidify their identity on defense against a more formidable foe. This will be the week where we find out what the Tigers defense is made of.

Score prediction

Memphis - 45

Bowling Green - 38

[Flipper]

They've played nobodies...we've played somebodies. edge to us.

BGSU 49

Memphisto 31