Looking ahead to Nov 17 and Dec 4th

[jpfalcon09]

FWIW, the site TeamRankings which does predictive analysis lists BG as having a 97% chance of winning the division and has them favored in all the remaining games this season.

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-fo ... rojections" target="_blank

[Flipper]

MJ is the straw that stirs the drink...you don't taste the straw...but you sure can tell when you don't have one. The mix is just wrong...

[kdog27]

I'm very interested to see how we look against WMU. We've been beating up the East for about 4 seasons now. The West left a bad taste in my mouth last season.

I'm not completely writing off OU or anything, but I will be surprised if they make it a game.

[Tech2000]

Ok, I'm going to show some stupidity but really is confusion. Have seen some different thoughts on winning the East. So here is my understanding: We beat Ohio that makes us 5-0. We are in the championship even if the others win out. We have a better east record and also have beaten the other teams no matter how the games against the west goes (and yes for good measure just beat them all). Even if should we lose vs Ohio, we would still be in because that would be only one lose vs all others with at least 2 loses no matter the remaining schedules. Correct? The only time the non east games come into play is if there was a first place east tie, which there can't be. Or am I missing something as this was the case last year.

[TG1996]

Ok, I'm going to show some stupidity but really is confusion. Have seen some different thoughts on winning the East. So here is my understanding: We beat Ohio that makes us 5-0. We are in the championship even if the others win out. We have a better east record and also have beaten the other teams no matter how the games against the west goes (and yes for good measure just beat them all). Even if should we lose vs Ohio, we would still be in because that would be only one lose vs all others with at least 2 loses no matter the remaining schedules. Correct? The only time the non east games come into play is if there was a first place east tie, which there can't be. Or am I missing something as this was the case last year.

All MAC games count.

If we beat OU, the only way we don't go to Detroit is if OU, Akron, UB or Kent St. wins out. UB, Akron and Kent St. all play each other still and OU is eliminated if we beat them 11/4. Unless my brain is fried at this late hour, with a win over OU, we win any East tiebreaker among 3-loss (in conference) teams. But one of the others could theoretically finish with 2 losses, which means we have to win one against the West opponents we have left.

UB is at Miami(OH) on Thursday 10/29 and Akron hosts CMU this Saturday. If they both lose, we just have to pull for Kent State to lose one game.

We could clinch 11/5 (UB loses to Miami, then beats Kent St.), but not by beating OU on 11/4.

We're at the "clear the calendar for Detroit" stage, but not quite to the "book the trip" stage.

[jpfalcon09]

Ok, I'm going to show some stupidity but really is confusion. Have seen some different thoughts on winning the East. So here is my understanding: We beat Ohio that makes us 5-0. We are in the championship even if the others win out. We have a better east record and also have beaten the other teams no matter how the games against the west goes (and yes for good measure just beat them all). Even if should we lose vs Ohio, we would still be in because that would be only one lose vs all others with at least 2 loses no matter the remaining schedules. Correct? The only time the non east games come into play is if there was a first place east tie, which there can't be. Or am I missing something as this was the case last year.

All MAC games count.

If we beat OU, the only way we don't go to Detroit is if OU, Akron, UB or Kent St. wins out. UB, Akron and Kent St. all play each other still and OU is eliminated if we beat them 11/4. Unless my brain is fried at this late hour, with a win over OU, we win any East tiebreaker among 3-loss (in conference) teams. But one of the others could theoretically finish with 2 losses, which means we have to win one against the West opponents we have left.

UB is at Miami(OH) on Thursday 10/29 and Akron hosts CMU this Saturday. If they both lose, we just have to pull for Kent State to lose one game.

We could clinch 11/5 (UB loses to Miami, then beats Kent St.), but not by beating OU on 11/4.

We're at the "clear the calendar for Detroit" stage, but not quite to the "book the trip" stage.

Here are the conference opponents for each team:

Akron - vs. CMU, at UMass, at Miami, vs. Buffalo, vs. Kent (3 home, 2 away)

Bowling Green - vs. Ohio, at WMU, vs. Toledo, at Ball State (2 home, 2 away)

Buffalo - at Miami, at Kent, vs. NIU, at Akron, vs. UMass (2 home, 3 away)

Kent - vs. Buffalo, at Ohio, vs. CMU, at Akron (2 home, 2 away)

UMass - at Ball State, vs. Akron, at EMU, vs. Miami, at Buffalo (2 home, 3 away)

Miami - vs. Buffalo, vs. EMU, vs. Akron, at UMass (3 home, 1 away)

Ohio - at BG, vs. Kent, vs. Ball State, at NIU (2 home, 2 away)

Analysis:

Akron, Buffalo and Kent have the best "chance" of winning the division of the remaining teams but they all play one another in November, meaning one of them would need to run the table and hope BG loses three of their last four games. A BG win coupled with a loss by any one of these teams eliminates them.

Akron appears to have the easiest remaining schedule as they get CMU, Buffalo and Kent at home. The UMass game will be interesting.

Buffalo has three road games left but gets NIU at home which will likely be their toughest challenge.

Kent gets CMU at home but have to travel to Athens and Akron which will be difficult games.

If Ohio loses to BG next week, they are out. Simple as that. However, if they pull out a win things will get interesting as they will hold the tiebreak against BG and would only need to go 2-2 if BG goes 1-3 to finish the season to win the East.

Miami and UMass are both out with either one more BG win or a loss.

So, if BG gets by Ohio this week, they'll have to lose out and someone would have to win out to win the division. It's extremely unlikely that happens.

As I posted earlier, BG has a 97% chance of winning the division.

[Falconfreak90]

Just beat Ohio and we should pretty much be in the clear...CRUSH THE KITTENS!

[MarkL]

The best way to guarantee a trip to Detroit: beat OU, beat WMU, POUND UT INTO THE GROUND, and beat Ball State.

[Falconfreak90]

The best way to guarantee a trip to Detroit: beat OU, beat WMU, POUND UT INTO THE GROUND, and beat Ball State.

I really like that plan...sounds good to me.

[Flipper]

I think we can all agree on that one....

[TG1996]

Beat OU and only Buffalo or Kent can catch us. And one of them will lose the next night.