Ohio preview

[MarkL]

Ohio is a banged up team. And for the last few years, Ohio has slumped down the stretch. November games are here, we are in the stretch. And the MAC East title is all-but-ours with a win.

TL;DR version
If we played OU before injuries set in, this could be a real challenge. But OU is a thin team with some key injuries and they have played poorly these last two games. We should be able to win.

The Series
- We are on a three game winning streak over Ohio, which follows a three game losing streak
- We lost a heartbreaker in 2009 when Freddie Barnes dropped a game-winning pass in the end zone. That loss kept us out of the MAC title game
- We lost a heartbreaker in 2011 when OU kicked a FG as time expired. Their game-winning drive was extended by an offsides penalty on 4th down which even the TV announcers thought was a bad call
- We physically rocked them in 2012. OU's QB called our defense the best MAC defense he had ever seen
- We shut them out in 2013
- Our maligned defense in 2014 was on the field for over 100 plays and only allowed one TD in it all

Injury Report
Normally I would start out with detailing the offense, but I'm going to change gears a bit here. Ohio has so many injuries, so I'll start up by listing all players who have missed at least one game this year due to injury. Note: some of these players have since returned, but as anyone who plays sports knows, an injury sticks with you well after you return.
Position ... Name ........................... Injury ................. Period
DL .............. Brandon Purdum .... Undisclosed ..... "?"
TE .............. Connor Brown .......... Illness ................. "?"
CB ............. Curtis Brunson .......... Undisclosed ..... "?"
RB ............. Papi White .................. Knee ................... "?"
DE ............. Trent Smart ................ Foot ................... "?"
WR ............ Herman Brunis ......... Knee ................... "?"
OL ............. Joe Anderson ............. Undisclosed ..... "?"
OT ............. Joe Lowery ................. Groin .................. "?"
FS .............. Kylan Nelson ............. Groin .................. "?"
FS .............. Nathan Carpenter ... Groin .................. "?"
LB ............. Quentin Poling .......... Knee ................... expected to miss 2 weeks
QB ............ JD Sprague .................. Shoulder ........... out indefinitely
TE ............. Troy Mangen .............. Knee ................... out for season

Ouch.

Offense
- OU averages 25.5 points per game. Which is padded a bit by playing FCS Southeast Louisiana and FCS-caliber Idaho and MU.
- OU is a run-first yet balanced attack. They have slightly more run plays than pass plays on the season, though there would be far more run plays had OU not been trailing UB all game therefore attempting 54 passes.
- QB Derrius Vick has put together a decent season so far. He is currently 140 / 218 (63.5%) for 9 TDs/6 ints. Ohio is not a pass first offense as he only averages 200 a game, but he is an efficient passer.
... - Vick is a senior this year. I am glad for him that he is putting together a solid season.
... - He originally was supposed to split snaps with JD Sprague, but Sprague got injured early and has not returned. I do not believe we will see anyone but Vick.
... - He gets sacked a lot. OU has given up 18 sacks this season. More on sacks later.
- Ohio is a run-first offense and they divide up the runs to keep players fresh. They have three backs with over 100 yards rushing.
... - Senior Daz'mond Patterson leads the way with 78 for 335 and 7 TDs. He is a small, quick guy at 5-7 177. I am guessing he is not overly durable as he has never carried more than 13 times in a game this season.
... - Sophomore A.J. Ouellette is a bit bigger at 5-10 195. He has 65 for 269 and 2 TDs.
...... - His carries have dwindled some recently, partly due to his playing some LINEBACKER due to injuries. However he had 21 rushes for 77 in the win over Marshall.
...... - As OU has a week and a half off, maybe we'll see more of Ouelette. Which I would like to see. He is a fun, physical runner.
... - Freshman Papi White has seen significant play time with 24 for 146 and 2 TDs. His average is inflated after a nice day against Southeast Louisiana.
...... - White is a smaller, quicker guy at 5-9 166. I expect he'll bulk up significantly in his career.
- OU always has good receivers and this year is no different. Their top three guys all have some good size, so our secondary will need to be secure on tackles.
... - Junior Sebastian Smith leads the way with 40 receptions for 492 and 5 TDs. He is a tall guy at 6-3 183. The tall trend will continue.
... - Sophomore Brendan Cope has 24 for 367, averaging over 15 per. His average is helped with a 65 yard TD against Idaho and a 67 yard TD against Southeast Louisiana.
...... - Cope also is tall at 6-2 189.
... - Junior Jordan Reid has 29 for 353 and a TD. He also is a tall guy at 6-3 198
... - This WR corps has size. They have explosive potential. Our secondary has played tremendously recently but they will still be challenged.
...... - And do consider that the secondary's best game came against Kent, with a freshman QB in his second start. He previously faced UMass, which has no pass rush, and then faced our defensive line. So while our secondary played great, we will only see better QBs and offenses as we go.

Defense
- OU gives up 23 points per game, though they have given up 40+ the last two games.
... - Injuries have hurt OU badly, especially in the LB corps. I kid you not when I say running back Ouellette started at LB against Buffalo.
... - I hope for their sake the time off helps the team heal. I want to beat these guys, but I want to beat them at full strength, not a patchwork team.
- The top two tacklers are linebackers. Junior Blair Brown is the leader with 57 tackles (32 solo). He has 4.5 TFL though no sacks. He is good at keeping plays from getting into the secondary.
... - Sophomore Quentin Poling is second with 40 tackles (31 solo). He also ties for sack lead with 3 and is in a four-way tie for interceptions lead with 2. He is a disruptive linebacker.
- Tied with Poling with 3 sacks are defensive ends Tarell Basham (6-4 250) and Kurt Laseak (6-4 236). Neither are overly big but they are tall and explosive.
... - OU has 15 sacks on the season. This is a disruptive defensive front.
- OU has 9 interceptions on the season. Four players - two linebackers and two safeties - have two interceptions each.
... - Four of the interceptions were against MU. Against far better teams in WMU and Buffalo, Ohio has no interceptions.
... - The LBs and secondary have been hit by injuries badly. This may account for lack of disruption in the passing game recently.
- Overall this is a good defense but they have been lit up recently as they have been injured. If Ohio is at better strength when we play them, this will make yet another good MAC defense we play ...
... - And hopefully light up.

Special Teams
- OU primarily uses their running backs as returners.
... - Papi White is the leading PR, averaging about 7.5. He's a quick and speedy type.
... - Daz'mond Patterson is the leading KR averaging over 23 per return. While our kick return defense has improved, I still always worry when you have players who are starting-caliber returning kicks.
- Senior placekicker Josiah Yazdani is 5/7 on kicks. He is one of OU's most important players because they so often play tight, close games.

Ohio's season so far
- A healthy Ohio team handled Idaho with ease.
- A healthy Ohio team handled Marshall just after Marshall beat Purdue.
- A semi-healthy Ohio team blew out FCS Southeast Louisiana.
- A semi-healthy team took Minnesota down to the wire. And they got screwed by the refs. Home cooking if I've ever seen it.
... - Ohio was significantly out-passed and out-rushed but their special teams allowed them to beat Minnesota in the field position game.
- In Elton Alexander's MAC East title game, Akron passed for 231 (against Ohio's 179) and held OU to 48 yards rushing (Akron rushed for 88).
... - Though OU was out-yarded, they came up with two touchdown drives and held Akron to four field goals.
- Ohio blasted MU. No surprises.
- Injuries really started to show when Ohio was blasted off the field by WMU. WMU rushed for over 400 on OU, including two different players having 50+ yard bursts. OU's running game never got going and the pass game could not keep up.
- Buffalo took advantage of a sore Ohio team. The defense was so thin that a RB started at linebacker for OU. Predictably the OU running game never got going and the team was destroyed.

Which all leads me to ....
Ohio at Bowling Green
- We are currently favored by 16. That sounds a little high, but we have beaten our last two opponents by a combined 100-10.
- Weather should be beautiful. How many times can you say that one in Bowling Green in November evening games?
- Obviously Ohio's health is a concern. I do believe we will see a much healthier team on Wednesday than Buffalo saw last week. Still, this is a thin team.
- Ohio is especially thin on defense but when at full strength, they have a solid D.
- This is a disruptive defense front and we give up a lot of sacks. The offensive line will have their hands full.
- Just for fun I did some statistical analysis. Skip this section if stats do not interest you. One should not be surprised that I enjoy statistics.
... - On average, a MAC team's sack-to-pass-attempt ratio is 4.88%.
... - We pass a lot and we get sacked a lot. Our sack-to-pass-attempt ratio is 6.63%, which is .8 standard deviation above the mean.
... - Ohio has given up fewer sacks than we have on far fewer pass attempts. Their sack-to-pass-attempt ratio is 6.72%, which is .85 standard deviation above the mean.
... - We have a front seven which has recently become rather effective at getting to the backfield. Our defensive sack-to-pass-attempt ratio is 4.82%, which is just below the mean.
... - Ohio has an aggressive defensive front. Their defensive sack-to-pass-attempt ratio is 5.79%, which is .4 standard deviation above the mean.
... - What this all means is there could be a lot of sacks in this one. You have two defenses that give up nearly a standard deviation more sacks than the mean and one defense which is average and another that is better than average at getting sacks.
... - Aren't statistics fun?
- I mentioned that Ohio's red zone defense was the difference against Akron.
... - Ohio so often plays these tight games. Much of their success is due to red zone defense. On the season, Ohio has allowed TDs on only 11 / 26 red zone attempts. Though they have also allowed 11 red zone FGs.
... - We have a tendency to skip on the 3's and go for 6's. Just something to consider when we're playing a pretty good red zone defense.
... - Maybe we should take the points when we can, especially if we have the lead.
- Ohio's run game has gone nowhere the last two weeks. And our running defense has been spectacular most of the season.
... - I'm sure I'll have to duck behind some rocks for saying this one, but playing Tennessee and that big set of backs ended up being a huge blessing. We found a glaring defensive weakness and corrected it. The run defense has become a real strength of this team.
- At full strength Ohio could make this game annoying. They could make us have to work on offense and could put together long drives that either score or pin us deep.
... - But with all the injury and depth problems Ohio has, I think we should cruise.
... - Just a quick thought. It seems every year Ohio has injury problems. I may not be an expert, but I would suspect there is something going on wrong with strength and conditioning.
- I like Frank Solich a lot. He is easy to respect. Dave Clawson looked up to Solich for how to run a MAC program. Solich recruits well, builds depth, and generally plays mostly juniors and seniors while allowing his young players to develop.
... - The problem is Solich's teams have begun slumping late in the season since 2012. If we smash them on Wednesday, it will officially be four straight seasons where Ohio packs it in late.
... - I do feel like Solich is close to retirement. In fact, there is a distinct possibility this will be the last time we play him, or at least the last time he comes to the Doyt.
... - Solich revived a dead program. He won the east three times from 2006 to 2011. But since that last east title, he has dealt with the rise of Bowling Green.
... - I would imagine he believes he has a MAC title team still in him, but he won't get there until he beats BG.
- What I want out of this game ....
... - A third straight MAC East sweep!!
... - Another solid showing by the defense
... - An explosive and efficient offense that does not give much away, especially with big west games looming
... - No injuries. None for either team. Ohio has been banged up enough this year and seeing that Kent State jerk trying to intentionally injure Matt Johnson just boiled my blood.

Let's finish off the east season with a bang! Then it's time to dominate four straight west teams.

[WhiteBarksdale]

This was well done. I appreciate your effort.

I agree with the Tennessee point. The rush defense was such a problem last year, just down right awful. Some of the biggest holes I've ever seen. What really sticks out in my mind from the rush defense last year, was when I consumed many beers at a local bar watching Kareem Hunt run for 265 against us for TSUN's fifth straight win against us. YET, it was only a 1 score difference, thanks to a few interceptions we were gifted.

With that said, and our improved rush defense, this all bodes well for the TSUN matchup. Valdez has just been tremendous in the middle along with Royster and Colvin and the rest of that front 7. I think we get a good chance to polish that run defense more against an Ohio team, and then a "pre-test" if you will with Western Michigan and Jarvion the following week. Should be a nice tune up/Test for us. I think we can keep TSUN 1 dimensional and force Ely to beat us through the air with no ground support, things will be much less stressful for the BG defense, and in turn for the offense.

Everything right now imo is builing up to that TSUN matchup. Not that we are overlooking opponents but using these next 2 matchups to polish up our schemes in preparation for the biggest BG-TSUN game since 2003, and also what will ultimately be the biggest MAC game of the regular season, as probable rematch in Detroit looms.

One MAJOR thing that I would like to concur on is that WE COME OUT OF THIS GAME COMPLETELY UNSCATHED. NOT ONE DAMN INJURY. Ive been worked up since that play in the KENT game where the scumbag LB gator-rolled Matty and effectively tried to end the guys season/career. I want nothing but the normal bumps and bruises.

The goal for this game is get Knapke and the underclassman into the game.

[Falcon137]

Everything right now imo is builing up to that TSUN matchup. Not that we are overlooking opponents but using these next 2 matchups to polish up our schemes in preparation for the biggest BG-TSUN game since 2003, and also what will ultimately be the biggest MAC game of the regular season, as probable rematch in Detroit looms.

Western is playing as well as anyone in the MAC, BG included. There will be no polishing in that game, it will take a great game to get out of Kalamazoo with a win. It helps Western will be playing their 3rd game in 14 days.

Wouldn't be surprised to see Toledo lose to NIU and or CMU. Neither BG or Toledo have a walk to the November 17th game.

[jpfalcon09]

Everything right now imo is builing up to that TSUN matchup. Not that we are overlooking opponents but using these next 2 matchups to polish up our schemes in preparation for the biggest BG-TSUN game since 2003, and also what will ultimately be the biggest MAC game of the regular season, as probable rematch in Detroit looms.

Western is playing as well as anyone in the MAC, BG included. There will be no polishing in that game, it will take a great game to get out of Kalamazoo with a win. It helps Western will be playing their 3rd game in 14 days.

Wouldn't be surprised to see Toledo lose to NIU and or CMU. Neither BG or Toledo have a walk to the November 17th game.

Babers mentioned last week how the team needs to be mentally and physically prepared for the November games. He felt they hit a wall last year which was evident when they finished the regular season with two losses and then got smoked in the MACC. This group is going to be tested by playing Ohio, Western and Toledo within a 14 day period.

[WhiteBarksdale]

I guess polish was the wrong word.

Because I agree. Western will be tough. But that's what I like about the matchup. I of course think we are a stronger team and thus feel we will be victorious. But in that game I think it would be good for us to have a challenge but still play very well. I think that type of game is perfect game to have before TSUN. Go in to 11/17 feeling good about where we are as a team after beating arguably the 3rd best team in the conference. I guess thats what I meant by "polish"

Go up to Western, slow down Jarvion and have 500 yards of total offense + no injuries = polish

[Beaker]

"Standard deviation above the mean"? You're going to have to stop using these scientific terms and dumb it down for meatheads like me!

No, good preview, as always, Mark.

I agree that this could have been a very challenging matchup for us had it been played early in the season. With the injuries, the momentum of each team moving in opposite directions and the fact that Ohio must realize they don't have much of a shot at winning the division at this point, I'm not sure we'll see them at their best. Hopefully we will come out focused and sharp and put them down by a wide margin early and keep it that way. I would like to see coach get the key folks out as early as possible to keep them healthy and fresh as possible for the run of tough ones we're going to face after this week.

[Rollo83]

I guess polish was the wrong word.

Because I agree. Western will be tough. But that's what I like about the matchup. I of course think we are a stronger team and thus feel we will be victorious. But in that game I think it would be good for us to have a challenge but still play very well. I think that type of game is perfect game to have before TSUN. Go in to 11/17 feeling good about where we are as a team after beating arguably the 3rd best team in the conference. I guess thats what I meant by "polish"

Go up to Western, slow down Jarvion and have 500 yards of total offense + no injuries = polish

In case you forget what WMU did at our place last year...

Game 8 - WMU 26, BGSU 14

The Bowling Green State University football team could not put any points on the scoreboard after halftime and dropped a 26-14 decision to Western Michigan University on Saturday afternoon (Oct. 18). The game was held at Doyt Perry Stadium in Bowling Green, Ohio.

BGSU ran 64 plays and produced 274 yards of offense. Of those, the Falcons passed for 139 and ran for 135. The team was 5-for-13 on third down and 1-for-2 on fourth down, but managed just 14 first downs overall. WMU ran 74 plays for 361 yards, including 195 on the ground and 166 through the air. They were 9-for-18 on third down and accumulated 20 first downs.

Knapke finished 20-for-33 with 139 yards passing, no touchdowns and one interception. Greene finished with 46 yards rushing on 14 carries, while Knapke added 41 more yards.

Givens had three carries for three yards, but two of those went for touchdowns. Burbrink and Greene were the Falcons’ leading receivers with five catches each, for 42 and 32 yards respectively.

Ryland Ward and Gabe Martin led the Falcons’ defense with 14 and 13 tackles, while D.J. Lynch produced the team’s only sack of the game in his return from injury.

For the Broncos, Zach Terrell went 15-24 for and 166 yards and two touchdowns and an interception. Jarvion Franklin had 147 yards rushing on 37 carries with a touchdown.

[WhiteBarksdale]

I know they are a good team.

We are much improved last year, on both sides of the ball. Defense was nonexistent last year. This year is much better.

and... MATT JOHNSON

[Flipper]

The WMU game worries me quite a bit....but I think our offense will look better this year. Knapke looked off in that WMU game...I think he was dealing with an injury that limited his ability to throw. I don't think we're getting held to 139 yards on our first 20 completions against anyone this year.

Right now, I think BG, WMU and UT are the conference's best teams. NIU and CMU are a notch below. We're going to sort all that out pretty quickly. It'd be wild if we beat Toledo, lost to WMU and then beat NIU in the MACC....is that even possible?

[Falcon137]

The WMU game worries me quite a bit....but I think our offense will look better this year. Knapke looked off in that WMU game...I think he was dealing with an injury that limited his ability to throw. I don't think we're getting held to 139 yards on our first 20 completions against anyone this year.

Right now, I think BG, WMU and UT are the conference's best teams. NIU and CMU are a notch below. We're going to sort all that out pretty quickly. It'd be wild if we beat Toledo, lost to WMU and then beat NIU in the MACC....is that even possible?

NIU wins out. Toledo beats WMU and CMU. I think that does it?

That gives, NIU, and UT 1 loss. WMU with 2. NIU tiebreak over UT.

[WhiteBarksdale]

I just want to play anyone other than NIU in the Championship. I want to be beat TSUN twice in one year. At the minimum I want it to be the first BG v TSUN Championship game ever. So much HYPE.

[jpfalcon09]

I just want to play anyone other than NIU in the Championship. I want to be beat TSUN twice in one year. At the minimum I want it to be the first BG v TSUN Championship game ever. So much HYPE.

I'm hoping this happens too. The first MACC game against NIU was awesome with all the Lynch hype and BG coming in playing out of their minds. Ford Field was rocking.

Last year's game was simply flat because neither team was that impressive and worst of all, BG entered the game limping after getting blasted by Ball State and losing to Toledo.

A BG/Toledo MACC would likely draw 25,000 people and have an electric atmosphere.

[jpfalcon09]

Here's the injury list for Ohio, looks like they get some LBs back this week.

11/02/15 FS Kylan Nelson Groin Probable Wednesday
11/01/15 DL Brandon Purdum Undisclosed Questionable Wednesday
11/01/15 TE Connor Brown Illness Questionable Wednesday
11/01/15 CB Curtis Brunson Undisclosed Questionable Wednesday
11/01/15 WR Herman Brunis Knee Questionable Wednesday
11/01/15 DE Trent Smart Foot Questionable Wednesday
11/01/15 OL Joe Anderson Undisclosed Questionable Wednesday
11/01/15 OT Joe Lowery Groin Questionable Wednesday
11/01/15 FS Nathan Carpenter Groin Questionable Wednesday
11/01/15 RB Papi White Knee Questionable Wednesday
10/20/15 LB Quentin Poling Knee Out
09/19/15 QB JD Sprague Shoulder Out
08/26/15 TE Troy Mangen Knee Out

[MarkL]

Honestly I want either an NIU rematch or CMU. I don't believe rivalries should be played twice. Besides, if we get there and UT doesn't, it means we beat them and probably somebody else did too!