Roger Lewis eligible for the draft

[Globetrotter]

That would be a big loss. I'm no expert, but it seems to me that Lewis could improve his draft position after another year in the program.

It really doesn't matter. Your second contract is the one that matters and you have an entire year of getting paid instead of being in school. Getting drafted later is actually sometimes good.

[Browns]

That would be a big loss. I'm no expert, but it seems to me that Lewis could improve his draft position after another year in the program.

It really doesn't matter. Your second contract is the one that matters and you have an entire year of getting paid instead of being in school. Getting drafted later is actually sometimes good.

Getting fired from your job is sometimes good, but usually it's not.

[hammb]

That would be a big loss. I'm no expert, but it seems to me that Lewis could improve his draft position after another year in the program.

It really doesn't matter. Your second contract is the one that matters and you have an entire year of getting paid instead of being in school. Getting drafted later is actually sometimes good.

True and not true.

It's only true IF you're good enough to be drafted AND make a roster right away. If you're good enough to get drafted, make the roster, and stick for the whole year yeah you're probably better off. You get a year of league minimum pay and a year of NFL coaching. Those are the good.

It's NOT true if you're a borderline draft prospect that's gonna get taken in the 5th-7th rounds. If you end up in that range of the draft you're no lock to make the roster and could be looking at practice squad time which will get you a small salary (I think it's in the 110k range), and a year of NFL coaching, but you're far from priority during the season as they're focusing on the guys that will play on Sundays.

It's also NOT true if your ceiling is as a prospect in the top 2 rounds. Yes, you're correct that the 2nd contract is the one that REALLY matters, but don't discount the amount of money they get early. The last pick in the 1st last year got a $7 million contract, many 1st rounders will get their dollars guaranteed, and all 1st rounders get a 5th year team option (no other round does). 2nd rounders still will make in the millions for their rookie contracts, and again will have a decent shot of getting guaranteed dollars.

By the time you get to the 3rd, 4th round you're talking guys getting a 4 year contract for a total value of under $2 million most likely.

The gist is that while the 2nd contract is where you have a shot to make real money, it will take you 5+ years to recoup the difference between being a 2nd rounder and a 5th rounder. And keep in mind just how difficult it is to stay healthy for 5 years in the NFL. And of course there is also the fact that you must be PRODUCTIVE to get that 2nd contract...getting drafted in the 2nd round you're set for life (assuming good dollar management). Getting drafted in the 5th is way more money than most of us ever make, but it's a pretty big dropoff.


If I were advising Lewis I would probably tell him to go back for another year at BG, and the only reason I'm saying that is because he's getting another coach that is gonna throw the ball all over the place and give him a good shot at another huge statistical season. Given how under the radar he was going into this year I'm just not convinced he's gonna go in the first 4 rounds of the draft, and I would never advise a kid to leave school early where he'd be in a likely battle just to maintain a roster spot. Especially, since I think another big statistical season puts him in line to be a top 100 pick, which will mean a LOT more money.

Don't get me wrong I can absolutely understand why he'd go pro. I'll be rooting for him no matter what (and would LOVE to see him in Cleveland), but I think the kid will set himself up much better for his future by playing 1 additional year. He also has the HUGE advantage of coming back for another year and having an option of ANOTHER YEAR. He doesn't have to worry about getting hurt or dropping off a bit next year and becoming an afterthought.

I'll be anxiously following this.

[Globetrotter]

I think he ends up in the top 3 rounds right now. At the very least I would ask the committee.

[jpfalcon09]

I think he ends up in the top 3 rounds right now. At the very least I would ask the committee.

I think that's a bit ambitious. There's no doubt he's an NFL talent, but the question becomes is how NFL ready is he? The offense he played in may end up hurting him a little at the next level as he'll be asked to do more than run go routes or bubble screens. He'll need to be able to read defenses and be asked to run choice routes based upon what he sees and will need to be on the same page with his QB in that regard. I've looked a some draft boards and he's not even listed. If he's smart, he stays another year and uses it to parlay himself a better chance in the draft for 2017.

[hammb]

I think he ends up in the top 3 rounds right now. At the very least I would ask the committee.

The committee almost always answers on the low end so as not to persuade kids to leave early and then get drafted 2 rounds lower than the committee figured.

Lewis is an interesting case because I don't think most draft prognosticators have any idea that he's eligible this year, so he's not been included in any mocks, prospect rankings, or anything.

But I find it very hard to believe he ends up in the top 3 rounds given how under the radar he's been. If you can play NFL scouts will find you, but I wouldn't be at ALL surprised if there were a lot of teams that didn't attend a single BG game this year.

He's just so under the radar at this point I'd find it pretty remarkable if he ended up in the top 3 rounds. If he gets a 3rd round grade from the committee I'd tell him to bolt in a heartbeat. I think that's VERY optimistic at this point. Especially given the offensive system, his relative youth, and the fact that I'm not convinced he's as fast on the track as he plays.

[Globetrotter]

I think that attending games is meaningless at this point. If he declares they can just watch the tape and call the coach. There is a very recent history of people being successful in this system not including a guy projected as a first or second day WR this year. It will all come down to how fast he runs. The hands, size and body control are all there to be a high end number 2 wideout in the league. This isnt the typical BG wideout. This is a former OSU recruit who led the country in receiving. He is listed as running a 4.42 by Rivals. That could be meaningless.

You also have to consider he could get injured at BG.

[sum1udontknow]

No I'm not a paid draft analyst, but it is one of the things I am most passionate about each year. From my knowledge and scenarios I have seen turn out in the past. I think it's hard to see Roger Lewis coming back next year.

Matt Johnson won't be coming back, he has accepted an invite to the NFLPA Senior Bowl.

This is relevant to the case of Roger Lewis because:

#1 Roger had a year statistically that will be very tough to repeat. (His NFL Draft Stock will not be higher)
#2 QB Situation....Knapke is the clear cut starter right now probably unless the rumors of a TTU QB transferring.
#3 Coaching Staff....as much as I am excited about the staff coming in, it will still take time to learn the nuances and tendencies of the new system

Final Verdict: Roger Lewis declares and is drafted 3rd-5th round in the draft. Small school WRs are catching on more and more in the NFL and if Roger declares he LIKELY will get an NFL Combine invite.....which is where he(being a freak athletically) will standout and improve his draft stock more.

I hate to say it but I think Dec 23rd vs. GaSo will be the last time we see Roger Lewis in Brown and Orange.

[Flipper]

Allow me to be a contrarian....

At 5-11ish and 200lbs he's not a prototypical "big" outside NFL WR. Does he have the speed to be an elite slot? He doesn't seem to. He looks like a guy you line up opposite the guy you regard as your #1. What is that worth...depending on need from team to team....3rd round is the high end, 5th round the low end.

I hope he comes back....I think he and Knapke had good chemistry, but I don't think another year would change where he sits because so much of the draft is based on measurable.

[Globetrotter]

Allow me to be a contrarian....

At 5-11ish and 200lbs he's not a prototypical "big" outside NFL WR. Does he have the speed to be an elite slot? He doesn't seem to. He looks like a guy you line up opposite the guy you regard as your #1. What is that worth...depending on need from team to team....3rd round is the high end, 5th round the low end.

I hope he comes back....I think he and Knapke had good chemistry, but I don't think another year would change where he sits because so much of the draft is based on measurable.

You need to revisit recent drafts and the reality of who are the best players in the league right now. That size thing does not matter as much anymore. And guys you lineup opposite your number 1 guy are going in round 1.

[kdog27]

#1 Roger had a year statistically that will be very tough to repeat. (His NFL Draft Stock will not be higher)
#2 QB Situation....Knapke is the clear cut starter right now probably unless the rumors of a TTU QB transferring.

It's not like Knapke didn't know how to get him the ball. He had 73 receptions for 1,100 as a freshman. He's obviously better and Knapke should be better so there is no evidence that suggests his numbers would fall off next year.

He will put up biletnikoff type numbers up regardless of who the QB is. The question is will another year of those numbers at BG help his stock any, now that I have no idea.

[hammb]

Allow me to be a contrarian....

At 5-11ish and 200lbs he's not a prototypical "big" outside NFL WR. Does he have the speed to be an elite slot? He doesn't seem to. He looks like a guy you line up opposite the guy you regard as your #1. What is that worth...depending on need from team to team....3rd round is the high end, 5th round the low end.

I hope he comes back....I think he and Knapke had good chemistry, but I don't think another year would change where he sits because so much of the draft is based on measurable.

You need to revisit recent drafts and the reality of who are the best players in the league right now. That size thing does not matter as much anymore. And guys you lineup opposite your number 1 guy are going in round 1.

???

What are you basing that on? The top 20 in receiving yards this year just Antonio Brown, ODB, TY Hilton, and John Brown are under 6' tall.

Last year Philip Dorsett was the only WR under 6' to be drafted in the first 2 rounds of the draft.
In 2014 Beckham, Cooks, and Jarvis Landry were the only guys under 6' to go int he first 2 rounds of the draft.

Of those 4 guys drafted that highly Dorsett, Beckham, and Cooks are in a different stratosphere athletically to Lewis. It's not even worth discussion. Jarvis Landry might be a good comparison athletically, but he was playing in the SEC for LSU...that's always going to carry weight with NFL teams.

I think Lewis can become a #2 WR, but those guys are NOT going in the 1st round, not sure where that came from either. When teams are taking WRs in the 1st it's either to find a true #1 or because they are trying to a 1-2 punch of having 2 #1 caliber guys. Nobody is taking a projected #2 WR in the 1st round unless it's a crap draft.

As to the size thing, I couldn't disagree more. If anything I think size is becoming even more prevalent at the NFL level. There are great WRs that don't have the prototype size, but the overwhelming majority of top targets are big guys.


But none of that is really relevant. In no world is Lewis a #1 WR prospect, nor is he a 1st round draft prospect. I believe another year of production and a good combine he could be a late 2nd-3rd round prospect. If he leaves this year I expect him to go in rounds 5-7. I'll never begrudge a guy for a payday, but if he leaves early he damned well better play well in training camp next year because he'd run the risk of being a preseason cut that never finds a spot onto a roster. If another year of production got him into the top couple rounds he'd be virtually guaranteed a roster spot (and thus a salary) for a year or two.

And if his timed speed isn't sub 4.50 he would run the risk of going UDFA this year.

Also don't think for a second that he won't be answering a LOT of questions about the circumstances that got him at BG rather than OSU...no matter how much BS I believe them to be I guarantee you every single pre-draft synopsis on him as a prospect will carry that dreaded asterisk of having an off the field past. Also don't for a second undersell a scout seeing a prospect live. Not GAMES live, necessarily, but scouts will typically show up to watch practices and meet with coaches during the season...they put a TON of weight on what they see in those live practice viewings.

I definitely think Lewis leaving early would be fighting an uphill battle to forge an NFL career. A quick look at the recent MAC WRs to go onto success in the league have had 3 seasons of top production at the college level. It's asking a lot to go from 2 great seasons in the MAC and get drafted very highly.

[Globetrotter]

Nelson Aghloar-Kendall Wright-Dorsett off the top of my head.

The WR position is becoming much more about getting off the line and hitting people on quick cuts or beating them deep. The big guys will always have a place but it's that second guy that teams are investing more heavily in early than they had been. Thats why if Lewis can run he will go high.

The big guys are the guys getting over drafted (Perriman is a perfect example).

[hammb]

Agholar is over 6' tall. I didn't go all the way back to Wright, but he was a 1st rounder (and he kinda sucks, FWIW). Dorsett I mentioned above.

And again, the guys that are sub 6' and getting drafted that highly are generally transcendent athletes. Dorsett ran a 4.33 at the combine and has change of direction ability unlike anything I've seen from Lewis. And for that matter Dorsett has done almost nothing as a rookie either.

Not going to deny Perriman was overdrafted, although I think it was probably more because he is 6'3 and also ran a sub 4.3 40. But the reason these guys get overdrafted is because the decision makers realize how valuable that size is.

The fact remains not many guys below 6' get drafted highly, and of those that have only ODB is having much success...and his vertical makes him irrelevant in the discussion because he plays like a guy a few inches taller. But I'm not really talking about Lewis's ability to find success in the league...I do think he can play. Right now I'm discussing his draft stock. And the fact that you admit guys that are tall are going to get overdrafted implies exactly what I'm saying: he is going to struggle to get taken in the first few rounds.

I would be beyond stunned if he goes in the first 3 rounds this year. And with the way the advisory committee typically grades I wouldn't be at all surprised if they tell him he's a 6th-7th round prospect. A #2 WR ceiling from the MAC, with only 2 years of production, and an off the field past? That's just not the type of guy that's going to move up real high on draft boards.

If he can clock in at the combine and actually be TALLER than 6' and run a sub 4.40 40 he'd start to move up draft boards, but I have a hunch he won't time nearly that fast and will come in below 6'. He's gonna need to make a career in the NFL off route running and savvy, and those things don't get you drafted highly.

[Globetrotter]

If you go just a little beyond your measure you have Brown-Maclin-Beckham Jr, Hilton, Cooks, Travis Benjamin, Baldwin, Landry, Snead, Sanders, Cobb, Tate. Its shifting from what was always giant guys on the outside small guys on the inside.