First Half Schedule/PWR

[apollo]

Our first half pairwise is 16 and our Strength of Schedule is 45th....Here are opponents and their current pairwise.


Huntsville 2-0-0 PWR 56
Canisius 1-0-0 PWR 55
OSU 2-0-0 PWR 54
RIT 0-0-1 PWR 52
LSSU 0-0-2 PWR 49
Bemidji 2-0-0 PWR 46
NMU 2-0-0 PWR 36
WMU 0-1-0 PWR 32
Anchorage 1-1-0 PWR 30
Tech 1-1-0 PWR 23
Mankato 0-0-2 PWR 17

Avg PWR of our opponents = 40

We do a nice job of beating teams that stink....which obviously good teams do....our record isn't quite as good against stronger teams.

The second half we have a stretch where we play at Miami, Home series against Anchorage, Home series against Tech, Away series against Mankato, home vs Miami......that stretch will most likely determine the league and if we have a chance at an at large bid. I think our schedule is so easy it makes our record deceptive. I think we have a good chance at winning the league....not so much at getting an at large bid. The WCHA will probably only get the tourney champ in.

[BGDrew]

It's too early to start looking at Pairwise. The Ivy's haven't even played 15 games yet.

[rood]

And the B!G have only had two weeks of conference play. I've always looked at PWR as worthless before February.

[apollo]

It's not worthless...it shows the quality of opponents we've been playing....obviously the numbers will change in the second half....we haven't beaten anyone of
any significance. One win at Tech and one win at Anchorage are our two best wins.

[BGDrew]

It's not worthless...it shows the quality of opponents we've been playing....obviously the numbers will change in the second half....we haven't beaten anyone of
any significance. One win at Tech and one win at Anchorage are our two best wins.

You can't judge the strength of a team based on a third or half of the games they've played. Look at WMU: on paper it looks like a "bad" loss because right now their PWR is 32. Problem is they're a top four team in the NCHC and will only go higher and higher as they play those conference games.

[rood]

You can't judge the strength of a team based on a third or half of the games they've played. Look at WMU: on paper it looks like a "bad" loss because right now their PWR is 32. Problem is they're a top four team in the NCHC and will only go higher and higher as they play those conference games.

Stop talking sense. Can't you see the sky is falling?

[BGDrew]

You can't judge the strength of a team based on a third or half of the games they've played. Look at WMU: on paper it looks like a "bad" loss because right now their PWR is 32. Problem is they're a top four team in the NCHC and will only go higher and higher as they play those conference games.

Stop talking sense. Can't you see the sky is falling?

I'm not saying he's necessarily wrong that we've played 50/50 hockey. But you can't use Pairwise as the decider for that.

[apollo]

If I'd have talked about Pairwise after 2 weekends I'd get it. At this point in the season it is a perfectly acceptable gauge to analyze who we've played. We'll see in 3 months I guess.....Bottom line, I wouldn't expect an at large bid with our schedule. Our record is more a product of who we've played as opposed to us being a legitimate top 15 team.

[jpfalcon09]

If I'd have talked about Pairwise after 2 weekends I'd get it. At this point in the season it is a perfectly acceptable gauge to analyze who we've played. We'll see in 3 months I guess.....Bottom line, I wouldn't expect an at large bid with our schedule. Our record is more a product of who we've played as opposed to us being a legitimate top 15 team.

That's silly to say that. As others have mentioned, other conferences have barely begun their conference schedules. The Nacho and B1G will likely beat up on itself enough to help BG out if they can beat WMU and Miami coming up, likewise with Ohio State. There's still way too much hockey to be played to get caught up in any scenarios.

[apollo]

Okay....you guys are right.....I'm wrong.

But we better win the tournament.....only one team is getting in from the WCHA. Mark it down.

[poltergeist]

Okay....you guys are right.....I'm wrong.

But we better win the tournament.....only one team is getting in from the WCHA. Mark it down.

It could happen that way, but it won't be because of the PWR in December.
but if you insist, both Mankato and BGSU are easily within bid territory based on PWR.

I'm gonna go with Dahl on this instead of getting all Nostradamus:

"Though PWR seems relatively stable in January, because week-to-week movements have settled down, those movements add up enough over the weeks that January’s PWR isn’t a spectacular predictor of the final PWR. On January 1 (about 90 days before the final PWR) teams have been an average of 3-8 ranks off from their final rank. Even 30 days out teams are only within 2-4 positions on average of their final rank."

Just win, baby. That's the only thing that matters.

[pdt1081]

Food for thought: OSU was the only opponent BG has played this season that played last night. They won over BC, and increased BG's pairwise by 0.017. Last season BG missed out by 0.002.

[Critical Thinker]

Jim Dahl had a good article today about the chances of each team to make the tournament: http://collegehockeyranked.com/2016/01/ ... -cutlines/" target="_blank

Based on teams around us, it looks like we can be in a top-16 position if we win about 12 of our remaining 16 games. We'd then have to keep winning in the WCHA tourney to hold on to our spot, but it's still possible to get an at-large bid this year.

[apollo]

Thanks for posting...pretty interesting

I don't think 12 out of 16 would get it done for us because we aren't playing other teams that are ranked high enough....The article shows the graphs for Western and Dartmouth and the relationship between their win total approximate chance to get in. They both have a chance if they finish strong because they have series left with other highly ranked teams.
We don't have those series to win, plus every loss hurts even more because the opponents will be ranked lower than us.

I think you need to finish with 14 more wins and advance to the conference championship....ultimately it really doesn't matter because BG isn't good enough to get an at large. Win the tournament and your in.

[Freddie]

I wish I could believe as Critical Thinker, but I just don't see it.

The flaw is CT's thought process is either in failing to take into account the weakness of our remaining schedule, or in lacking a complete understanding of how the PWR works. Today we are #22 in PWR, we have 8 opponents left, 16 games. Only ONE of those opponents is ranked above us in PWR (Minn State #17). We're NOT going to gain any ground by beating Huntsville (#58), Alaska (51), Lake State (46), Ferris (35), Anchorage (30), or even Miami (28) or Mich Tech (27). And any losses against the lower half of that list would cause us to drop like a rock.

Also, since 14 of 16 games remaining are inside the conference, AND since the VAST majority of those opponents' remaining games are also within the WCHA, no matter who beats who our respective opponents winning pct and opponents-opponents win pct won't change much between now and the end of the season.

My estimate is that it would take a minimum of 14 wins in those remaining 16 games to get us inside the bubble (which is ACTUALLY 15, not 16...as nobody in Atlantic will be top 16, but somebody will get that bid)...and that once inside that bubble, we'd be SOOO close that a loss in the conference semis, or even a loss to the wrong team in the conference title game could drop us out.

I know many of us (myself included) jumped all over Apollo for saying stuff like this, but he is getting closer each week to being proven correct. The WCHA is collectively, and unexplainably weak this year, and will only get (and only deserve to get) 1 NCAA bid.