Roger Lewis goes undrafted

[Beaker]

Making the NFL is such a long shot for anyone. I understand that he probably felt this was his best shot and he wanted to pursue his dream and that's his decision to make. Maybe he got some bad advice that factored into that decision. I just hope that in a few years he doesn't end up regretting walking away from a college degree and all the great experiences that would have gone with it, as well as having his name completely dominate the BG receiving records. I can only see this as a big mistake, from my point of view.

I do wish him the best and hope he's able to pull it off.

[kdog27]

Making the NFL is such a long shot for anyone. I understand that he probably felt this was his best shot and he wanted to pursue his dream and that's his decision to make. Maybe he got some bad advice that factored into that decision. I just hope that in a few years he doesn't end up regretting walking away from a college degree and all the great experiences that would have gone with it, as well as having his name completely dominate the BG receiving records. I can only see this as a big mistake, from my point of view.

I do wish him the best and hope he's able to pull it off.

Agreed

[Globetrotter]

Making the NFL is such a long shot for anyone. I understand that he probably felt this was his best shot and he wanted to pursue his dream and that's his decision to make. Maybe he got some bad advice that factored into that decision. I just hope that in a few years he doesn't end up regretting walking away from a college degree and all the great experiences that would have gone with it, as well as having his name completely dominate the BG receiving records. I can only see this as a big mistake, from my point of view.

I do wish him the best and hope he's able to pull it off.

I know that many schools have programs for athletes who go pro to complete their degrees for free.

[Flipper]

Re staying on to improve strength and conditioning, the new guy did actually play in the NFL...might have been able to provide some better ideas. At any rate, none of our conjecture matters now. Let's just hope Hardy, Huettell, Johnspn, Greene and Lewis get fair shots and open some eyes

[Globetrotter]

I expect Greene-Johnson and Lewis all to make rosters.

[mscarn]

If the advisory committee he supposedly consulted told him 3rd to 5th round then that's where the blame should be laid.

How could Daniel Braverman and the RB at EMU get drafted and Roger Lewis and Travis Greene not? They are victims of an unscientific, obsolete, flawed charade that they call a scouting system that fails more often than it succeeds when you look at the UFA's that make rosters and the Day 3 draft picks that do not.

[hammb]

If the advisory committee he supposedly consulted told him 3rd to 5th round then that's where the blame should be laid.

How could Daniel Braverman and the RB at EMU get drafted and Roger Lewis and Travis Greene not? They are victims of an unscientific, obsolete, flawed charade that they call a scouting system that fails more often than it succeeds when you look at the UFA's that make rosters and the Day 3 draft picks that do not.

Lmao.

I find it very difficult to believe he received that grade. It's quite unusual for them to over value anybody. Especially not by that much, unless something unexpected happens in the pre draft process.

I thought he should be drafted but it was hardly a shock when he wasn't. And at no point was Greene ever a prospect or look like anything remotely resembling an NFL RB. Did anybody actually think he would be drafted!?!?

Your take on NFL scouting is just horrible wrong. On average every team gets 4-5 picks on the 3rd day. They typically sign about 20 udfas. The averaged is about 1.5 udfa making the roster while I'd bet it's similar for late draft picks with a much lower sample size.

Moreover that same system you think is so flawed produces about 30% starters from rounds 2-3 and close to 50% from the first round. Pro bowlers found follows a very linear downward trend the later in the draft. Yeah you'll find more pro bowlers from udfa than from the 7th round but trans will sign far more udfa than draft picks so it's basically a numbers game.

The truth is that on any given year there are usually about 100 bona fide real NFL talents. Give or take, obviously. After the 3rd round the rest of the draft picks are basically preferred walk ons and then udfas. It's basically a crap shoot and mostly luck trying to predict which marginal talent will make the strides necessary.

Scouting college talent is an inexact science to say the least, but it's hardly a failure of the system as a whole because the one marginal prospect and ask if our non prospects failed to be selected. They'll be given every opportunity to prove that scouting community wrong and I hope they do. We're desperate to produce a legit NFL talent somewhere other than the lines or kicker.

[Flipper]

The NFL collectively doesn't know how to evaluate talent? I'm at a loss....

[Globetrotter]

The NFL does a pretty bad job of evaluating talent. I don't mean to say that Roger Lewis has been a part of that bad job.

But you are going backwards here in your logic, to an extent. Earlier round picks make it because they have more physical talent and ability often, but also because they are a greater investment in money and the high draft pick so they are afforded more time in practice and are given more time to develop. Someone like Roger Lewis is meaningless to the Giants. He cost them nothing. Sterling Shepard is meaningful. If Roger Lewis and Sterling Shepard look equally terrible in a week Roger Lewis will get cut and replaced. Sterling Shepard will run out his four year contract.

The NFL misses way more than they should because coaches play games. The teams that hit are the ones who never have the sneaky guys no one else knows about. When they do things like draft the guy who has never played football before from Germany, or draft 4 WRs in one draft that's when you start getting bit. The teams that consistently win go BPA at CB-DE-LT-QB until those spots are settled and then go BPA overall.

They also miss due to injury, poor scheme fit and lack of supporting cast. It's why it's the most popular league. It's so random and its connectable. There is one game a week. Tom Brady can rise from the ashes of Michigan in the 6th round to best QB ever.

[Redwingtom]

The NFL collectively doesn't know how to evaluate talent? I'm at a loss....

Yet somehow they found and turned a tiny QB like Julian Edelman into a stud WR.

I just don't get it either...

[hammb]

The NFL does a pretty bad job of evaluating talent. I don't mean to say that Roger Lewis has been a part of that bad job.

But you are going backwards here in your logic, to an extent. Earlier round picks make it because they have more physical talent and ability often, but also because they are a greater investment in money and the high draft pick so they are afforded more time in practice and are given more time to develop. Someone like Roger Lewis is meaningless to the Giants. He cost them nothing. Sterling Shepard is meaningful. If Roger Lewis and Sterling Shepard look equally terrible in a week Roger Lewis will get cut and replaced. Sterling Shepard will run out his four year contract.

The NFL misses way more than they should because coaches play games. The teams that hit are the ones who never have the sneaky guys no one else knows about. When they do things like draft the guy who has never played football before from Germany, or draft 4 WRs in one draft that's when you start getting bit. The teams that consistently win go BPA at CB-DE-LT-QB until those spots are settled and then go BPA overall.

They also miss due to injury, poor scheme fit and lack of supporting cast. It's why it's the most popular league. It's so random and its connectable. There is one game a week. Tom Brady can rise from the ashes of Michigan in the 6th round to best QB ever.

Certainly the higher picks get more opportunities to let it play out because of investment, but it's a circular argument because it is the fact that they appear to have more potential that got them picked that highly in the first place.

The curve of where starters, pro-bowlers, etc come from shows pretty definitively that the NFL system is FAR from perfect (no system could ever be when trying to predict the future), but at the same time they do their job overall pretty well. Certainly there are tons of UDFA that make it, and many that make it big, but that is largely a numbers game. There will be 2-3x as many UDFA signed as total players drafted.

What I disagree with is the logic that the NFL flat out "misses" talent. I don't believe there are many players out there not playing that would magically be quality NFLers, but were just not given a shot. The handful of BG guys that get a shot this summer need to make the most of it. If they truly have the desire, drive, and ability to become NFL players they can find ways to continue playing and working on their craft until getting another shot next year. Every year you'll find guys who have bounced around for a few years and eventually make it. Most UDFA types realize after a camp, or maybe 2, that they're just not good enough and will move on to starting the non-football part of their lives. Those that want to keep pushing though will always have that avenue with arena ball, CFL, etc.

And I think the NFL does a FAR better job evaluating and projecting talent than say, MLB does. Of course they are essentially drafting from the AAA ranks, so they SHOULD do better, but still...

As for the 4 WRS? I think that's probably the smartest draft move Cleveland has made in years. They had 14 picks and needed to add that sort of competition and depth over the entire roster. Teams typically carry 6-7 WRs, that's 11% of their roster, they used 28% of their picks on WRs, which I don't think is really that out of whack considering what they currently had. Best Player Available is the biggest myth in draft talk..only established good teams can afford to draft that way. The best way to draft, IMO, is to target specific positions/players that your roster needs and then manage draft capital by moving around to get those players at the spot in the draft that they make the most sense value wise. That's what Seattle & NE do every year...it's what the Browns have TRIED to do, and unfortunately they've been so poorly coached and so poor at evaluating which players to target it hasn't mattered.

Even still, I think that team will surprise some folks. There is more talent on that roster than people realize because they haven't had anybody that deserves an NFL coaching job in years. The culture needs to be changed though...it's a shitstorm

[apollo]

The NFL doesn't scout off production, especially at the MAC level...they evaluate size, speed, strength, and football awareness...

Travis Greene looked the most like an NFL prospect to me personally...it wouldn't shock me if he somehow sneaks on lot a practice squad.

Lewis and Johnson aren't good enough...Lewis ran like s$@& at the combine...scouts don't care how many catches you have in a system that doesn't translate well to the NFL...Johnson can't make NFL throws...it's pretty simple.

MAC football isn't real good...

[Flipper]

It's about projection....Roger Lewis was great here...but he doesn't project well for the next level. Same is true for Travis Greene. Their ceilings as players aren't very high because they have physical limitations. That doesn' t mean that they can't stretch those limitations nor does it take into account the notion that they'll reach their ceiling while other guys don't. That's how the league "misses" on guys...they see the material, they know what they have, but predicting the ability to maximize that is tricky. That's why a guy who is pictured in a gas mask hitting a bong can drop from the top five to the middle teens...the cheeba...the ganja...the weed...can limit your ability to do much of anything except devour Dorito's. There's a gazillion guys that come out of college each year and you only have so much time to evaluate them side by side in camp and exhibition games. Measurables vs production are the initial filter because...you have to have a filter

[Globetrotter]

The NFL does a pretty bad job of evaluating talent. I don't mean to say that Roger Lewis has been a part of that bad job.

But you are going backwards here in your logic, to an extent. Earlier round picks make it because they have more physical talent and ability often, but also because they are a greater investment in money and the high draft pick so they are afforded more time in practice and are given more time to develop. Someone like Roger Lewis is meaningless to the Giants. He cost them nothing. Sterling Shepard is meaningful. If Roger Lewis and Sterling Shepard look equally terrible in a week Roger Lewis will get cut and replaced. Sterling Shepard will run out his four year contract.

The NFL misses way more than they should because coaches play games. The teams that hit are the ones who never have the sneaky guys no one else knows about. When they do things like draft the guy who has never played football before from Germany, or draft 4 WRs in one draft that's when you start getting bit. The teams that consistently win go BPA at CB-DE-LT-QB until those spots are settled and then go BPA overall.

They also miss due to injury, poor scheme fit and lack of supporting cast. It's why it's the most popular league. It's so random and its connectable. There is one game a week. Tom Brady can rise from the ashes of Michigan in the 6th round to best QB ever.

Certainly the higher picks get more opportunities to let it play out because of investment, but it's a circular argument because it is the fact that they appear to have more potential that got them picked that highly in the first place.

100%

[Globetrotter]

It's totally about projection. But it's also a huge group think as well.

Travis Greene isn't drafted because of his size. He will get in camp and the team who has him will be like.....whaaaattttt?

Here is their lineup
31 Jones, Matt 15/3 25 Thompson, Chris 13/5 34 Brown, Mack SF15 00 Marshall, Keith 16/7

That's it. To be perfectly honest I wouldn't be surprised at all if he made their 53 man. Converted WR, ridiculous number of caused missed tackles. he fits Jay Gruden's offense perfect. He is an undersized Gio Bernard type. Now they drafted Keith Marshall who was the combine prince so that could be a hindrance but I can all but guarantee we see an article about Greene showing flashes in their camp.

My point is that player fits are super important as is the momentum around your name. Everyone watched Derek Henry play this year. I would bet that people briefly watched Greene, looked at his size and moved on. So many different variables.

I agree with much of what you are saying but opportunity matters a ton. There are people buried on rosters who are not playing. QB is a great example. McCarron-Glennon-Chase Daniel. Teams have not really given these guys a chance yet and they may never get it.