But in the first half, we had to settle for field goals, and two turnovers led to 14 easy Ohio points. And all along, Ohio had a plan to set up the QB run and it worked when it counted.
Oh well. Move on. One of the great lessons of college football is you can never dwell too long on either your accomplishments or in your misery. There's always the next challenge, the next opportunity. Continually improve and keep going.
TL;DR version
Defense defense defense defense defense defense defense defense defense defense defense. Did I mention the defense?
The series
- BG and NIU have a record of spoiling each other's seasons.
- 2002, NIU ruined ours, and in 2003, we returned the favor with ESPN's GameDay at BG.
- 2013, we epically ruined NIU's season, and in 2014, they ruined #FalconFast.
- We met for three straight conference title games, and then neither team made it last year. It felt weird.
Rushing defense vs NIU
- We all know who NIU is. They like to run the ball. And run the ball they do, averaging 167 per game in 6 games. Their average in conference play is a hair above that average.
- The leading rusher is eighth year senior Jordan Huff. 450 yards on 85 rushes, but only 1 TD.
- Here's some bad news. NIU likes to run the QB. More on the QBs in the next section. Backup QB Marcus Childers is the second leading rusher with 202 and 2 TDs.
- Now these stats may seem a bit underwhelming. There's a reason, and I'll introduce a theme to keep in your head all through this preview. NIU is similar to our 2012 team.
- They rely upon the defense to win, and the offense to not make mistakes and occasionally score. It's not flashy but it's effective.
- I just have to highlight (or lowlight) our rush defense, game by game because these numbers are ugly. These are the amount of rushing yards yielded each week:
- Michigan State: 215 (season average: 192. Rushed for 112% average against BG)
- South Dakota: 214 (season average: 237. Rushed for 90% average against BG)
- Northwestern: 303 (season average: 135. Rushed for 224% average against BG)
- Middle Tennessee: 243 (season average: 115. Rushed for 211% against BG)
- Akron: 178 (season average: 125. Rushed for 142% against BG)
- Miami: 238 (season average: 149. Rushed for 160% against BG)
- Ohio: 335 (season average: 230. Rushed for 146% against BG)
- Yuck. Only once has BG held an opponent to under 200, and two have gone above 300.
- 6 of 7 opponents have rushed above their average, and most are significantly above average, and the one that was below was an FCS.
- If you have any questions as to why we are one play from 0-7, there's your answer.
- NIU is planning to run the ball against us. A lot. Take that to the bank. If we can somehow stop the run, I'll be one happy camper.
- NIU has lost 6 fumbles on the season. Fumble recovery is a strength of our team. Maybe there will be a turnover at an opportune moment in this one.
- Fun fact. The NIU RB coach is Jordan Lynch. Yes, that Jordan Lynch. Given the kind of leadership he demonstrated as the QB, don't be stunned if he has an awesome coaching career.
- Northern Illinois is in their third straight year with QB injury problems. I have to feel for them.
- The season starter was Ryan Graham. He was hurt late in the first game against Boston College, a close loss where his injury surely played a role. Coach Carey said he's not playing this week.
- Graham had almost 100 rushing yards in the BC game and is also a fine passer. No point in going over the Boston College stats as those are limited and deceiving low as BC has a great defense.
- If you remember Northern Illinois' run to the MAC West title in 2015, Graham is the one that came in against UT after the starter Drew Hare got hurt and rallied to the win. He also led a key win over Western Michigan, then got injured against Ohio.
- Graham also got hurt last year. I have to feel for the guy. Coach Carey got a bit emotional talking about Graham and missing so much time as a QB and leader.
- Instead, Marcus Childers will be the starter. He started against Buffalo.
- Bad news, folks. He's a running QB. Given what Ohio just did to us, I bet his legs will be part of the gameplan.
- For the season, he's completing 63% of his passes, 355 yards, 4 TDs / 1 interception.
- We also could see Daniel Santacaterina. He's more of a dropback passer. 65% completions, 642 yards, 6 TDs / 5 interceptions.
- He didn't play at all against Buffalo and Childers did a fine job. Santacaterina was pulled due to interceptions.
- I have to give a lot of credit to our pass defense. Ohio's QB Rourke was having an efficient season. Then we held him to 7 / 22 for 105, and we account for 2 / 3 interceptions.
- He completed two long ones on the outside where his receivers had the size advantage against our corners. Beyond those two plays, Rourke was more of a liability than an asset through the air for Ohio.
- Give credit where credit is due: our pass defense took care of business against a running QB. We've likely got another one coming in this week.
- Rourke last week only completed 32% of his passes. In every other game, he's been 50%+.
- It was also his only multi-interception day, it accounted for 2/3 interceptions, it was his fewest yards by almost 50 (except a game where the backup played a lot), and it was his worst passer rating by a lot.
- Point is, for all the bad I can say about the run defense last week, I can say good about the pass defense. If that continues through the season, we may yet see an uptick in this team.
- Normally I go over the receivers but this preview is already running long. I'll only highlight the TE.
- Shane Wimann is the TD leader with 4 TDs. Reliable end zone target.
- The receiving corps is veteran.
- NIU has given up 13 sacks in 6 games against 188 pass attempts. That's actually a higher sack rate than ours.
- Here's the rub. If our defense can take care of business against the run and prevent the QB run, we've got a chance. I wouldn't bet on NIU's pass offense doing damage without the aid of their run offense.
- NIU's defense is excellent. They give up 93.5 rushing yards per game.
- They allowed 148 yards to Boston College in the season opener. The only other bad game was 127 to San Diego State, who averages over 200 rush yards per game.
- They've only allowed 3 rushing TDs on the season. 2 were by Nebraska, who only rushed for 85 against NIU.
- They allow 2.37 yards per rush, which is very low. That means to gain a first down in three attempts, you must put it up in the air on average.
- Buffalo only came up with 1.44 yards per carry last week.
- The TFL leader is sophomore DE Sutton Smith. He has 16 TFLs on the season. I'll be mentioning him a bit more in this preview, so remember his name.
- Amazingly, NIU only has recovered 2 fumbles on the season. Normally when a team is so solid against the run, there are some fumbles.
- These stats look much like our 2012 team. Great defense, all starting with stuffing the run.
- Our run offense has taken off in the last three weeks against MAC East opponents.
- 181 against Akron (they allow 177 ypg. BG rushed for 102% of their average).
- 275 against Miami (they allow 179 ypg. BG rushed for 154% of their average).
- 229 against Ohio (they allow 130 ypg. BG rushed for 176% of their average).
- So while our run defense is hideous, our run offense has been putting up similar comparative numbers against the competition.
- Don't be surprised if NIU's rush defense is not quite as impressive after this game. I think we've got a chance to shock them on the ground. It will depend on our pass offense. Next section.
- I said it last week and I still maintain this. Andrew Clair is awfully impressive. Keep this up and he may be a contender for MAC freshman of the year.
- NIU's pass defense is also quite impressive. They allow 188 yards per game, 5 TDs against 10 interceptions (!) in 6 games.
- Buffalo just passed for 344; previously, Kent only passed for 29.
- The top interception leaders are LB Jawuan Johnson (3 interceptions) and senior CB Shawun Lurry (2 interceptions). They each have an interception return TD, both against Nebraska.
- If the name Shawun Lurry sounds familiar, it's because he scored the pick six off the Matt Johnson screen pass in the title game in 2015. He was an interception monster that year.
- When a team can stuff the run, they can get after the QB. The team has 20 sacks on the season.
- The sack leader is that aforementioned DE Sutton Smith. 8.5 sacks in 6 games.
- Those are Chris Jones-like numbers. I told you to keep 2012 BG in mind when discussing Northern Illinois.
- Smith was originally a RB that converted to DE, so he's undersized and fast.
- Do you know what coach famously used the strategy of recruiting RBs and switching them to DL? Gary Patterson at TCU, pre-Big 12 days. It let him having an utterly dominant and lighting fast defensive line without being able to recruit dominant linemen.
- The sack leader is that aforementioned DE Sutton Smith. 8.5 sacks in 6 games.
- Jinks said Doege threw some in practice, but last word is he is leaning towards Morgan and maybe some Loy if needed.
- Hopefully Redding will be ready to go. He exploded onto the scene against Miami but got injured by a nasty hit early against Ohio.
- Here's how I see it. NIU plans to stuff the run and force us to throw deep. And they can probably stuff the run without stacking the box as heavy as Ohio did in the second half.
- That means if we go deep, we have to make it count. If we go 0/6 on deep throws again, I don't see how we have much success on offense.
- We have to get the pass game going. That way, NIU has to account for it, which will aid the running offense and give us good balance and unpredictability. This is basic football.
- Their kicker is 4 / 10 on the season. Yuck.
- Meanwhile, Suder is 12 / 13. I'm greatly enjoying this run. Great special teams at Bowling Green? Did I wake up in an alternate dimension?
- Not much else to say on special teams. Even if this season ends as a total train wreck, I am thrilled seeing STs work in our favor.
- NIU is 9 points from 6-0. They're an impressive bunch.
- They lost the season opener to Boston College on a missed kick that would have tied it at the end of regulation. And they lost their QB Graham along the way.
- Santacaterina took over as starter and NIU blew out EIU.
- NIU upset Nebraska, mostly on defense. They stuffed the Nebraska run game and returned two interceptions for TDs.
- Santacaterina threw 3 TDs but 3 costly interceptions in a 6 point loss to San Diego State. One of those interceptions was returned for a TD. NIU also allowed a kick return TD. NIU out-rushed and out-passed nationally ranked SDSU.
- Marcus Childers took over as the starter and NIU blew out Kent State. Kent only came up with 131 yards of total offense.
- Childers again started vs Buffalo. He found some rhythm early and led NIU to a 14-3 lead. Then UB made it 14-13 with some big plays of their own. Then after some turnovers and missed kicks, nobody scored in the second half and NIU held on to win a defensive slugfest.
- High of 76 on Saturday. Seriously, am I in another dimension or something? Nice weather and great special teams in Bowling Green?
- NIU is around 13 point favorites. I figured it would be more than that, but perhaps NIU's close win over Buffalo is the reason.
- First, just to say. BG aside, NIU is my favorite MAC program. They do it right every single year.
- As of the Buffalo game, NIU led the nation in defensive yards per play with 3.5. I haven't yet seen the updated stats this week for defensive yards per play but I'd have to think NIU is still way up there after holding Buffalo to under 1.5 per rush.
- This NIU defense is excellent. Remember our 2012 team? Excellent defense, simple, low risk offense. That is exactly how NIU is rolling.
- They swapped QBs to Childers because Santacaterina was throwing too many interceptions. They want clock control and efficiency. They are happy allowing their defense to do their thing and then be patient with the offense.
- After last week's 75 yard run by Ohio QB Rourke, I bet I know exactly what NIU's offense game plan will be. They will include the QB run. They will run with RBs and the QB against our leaky run defense.
- They probably will not throw it all too much, especially if they don't have to. And when they do throw, expect easier, low risk passes.
- And I bet defensively, they are coming after the run. They will probably want us to test them through the air, specifically the deep shot.
- I'd love to see Doege start. Morgan just is not completing enough passes. Now some of those deep incompletions were drops so you can't pin the entirety of the pass offense woes against Ohio on Morgan. Doege however just has the better touch.
- Anyone have any beat on either Doege or Redding? Redding's injury hurt last week badly.
- Honestly I do not have much to say here. Try to get the run game going, complete some passes to further open the run game, make the offense unpredictable so the NIU defense does not take control of the game.
- Watch out for Sutton Smith. He's a monster. I'm sure he's a candidate for defensive MAC player of the year.
- And when we're on defense, stop the damn run! Watch out for the QB, he'll want to get into the ground game. Force them to pass and if we defend as well as we did against Ohio's pass, we've got a chance.
- As always, no margin for error. No stupid interceptions, take care of the ball, and we've got a chance. Give NIU freebies and this thing is over.
