20 wins in 2017-2018?

[mbenecke]

Someone mentioned that 20 wins was not out of the question, so I'm going to present the rest of our schedule according to what Kenpom thinks about us after the win at Miami last night.

The current MAC Standings, according to Kenpom:
77. Buffalo
104. Toledo
144. Ball State
176. Central Michigan
179. Western Michigan
181. Eastern Michigan
202. Ohio
216. Bowling Green
233. Kent State
243. Northern Illinois
247. Akron
251. Miami

So, going through our schedule using their predictor:
vs. Central Michigan W 77-76 (W #13)
@ NIU L 78-76
@ Toledo L 87-75
vs. Ohio W 79-77 (W #14)
vs. Kent State W 81-76 (W #15)
@ Ball State L 83-74
vs. Eastern Michigan W 74-73 (W #16)
vs. Western Michigan W 77-76 (W #17)
@ Buffalo L 92-77
vs. Akron W 80-74 (W #18)
@ Kent State L 80-77
@ Ohio L 80-76
vs. Buffalo L 88-81

In this scenario, we would finish the season 18-13, and we would be 9-9 in the MAC. We would require 2 wins in the MAC tournament in order to reach 20. In my opinion, there are some that they picked us that I wouldn't have, and others that they didn't pick us that I would have. All in all, I think most can agree that the future is bright for this program, returning everyone but Matt Fox next year, and we're already way ahead of last year's 13 win campaign.

[JohnFloyd4Life]

I think 18 wins is very achievable and if we are 9-9 in the MAC we will be in a situation to win at least 1 MAC Tourney game. If we do that and we're at 19-20 wins we will get invited to one of the post season tourneys and maybe win another.

[Falconwriter]

Given today's result, especially combined with the home court failures we've seen so far this season, why would any "expert" think BG will win all those remaining home games?

[mbenecke]

Well... the predictor has been right about all of these games so far (picking the winner, anyways) except the first one against CMU. Funny that we pretty much would have won that one had they not gotten incredibly hot down the stretch from deep.

[mbenecke]

To update this, The current MAC Standings, according to Kenpom:
84. Buffalo
106. Toledo
166. Ball State
169. Western Michigan
183. Central Michigan
187. Eastern Michigan
192. Miami
207. Ohio
216. Kent State
221. Bowling Green
241. Northern Illinois
269. Akron

So, going through our schedule using their predictor:
@ Buffalo L 90-75
vs. Akron W 79-73
@ Kent State L 78-74
@ Ohio L 77-73
vs. Buffalo L 86-79

Honestly... I think we're beating Akron and Ohio. I also think we have a real shot @ Kent State.

[Eliano's Army]

I'm confused why Ohio is getting so much credit from KenPom and his numbers. They are bad this year. I too think that we beat Akron and get at least a split on the road between Ohio and Kent. .500 in the MAC would be a very respectable season especially from where this team was the previous two seasons.

[Class of 61]

I'm confused why Ohio is getting so much credit from KenPom and his numbers. They are bad this year. I too think that we beat Akron and get at least a split on the road between Ohio and Kent. .500 in the MAC would be a very respectable season especially from where this team was the previous two seasons.

Only thing I can think of is OU's non- conf. Schedule was much harder than BG's. I'm never sure how any of these rating systems work. Hockey's "pairwise " is a total mystery to me.

[Flipper]

Yep....I have no idea what that pairwise thing is all about.

I also think we can take OU and Akron and possibly Kent. If those games go our way...it could create the momentum needed to spring an upset on UB at home.

This team reminds of football under Clawson the year we became good again...went through part of the season as a "meh" team, struggled against,..Akron (?)...for a half and then became this juggernaut falling just short of winning the east.

That Mar 02 home game against UB looks like a potential "must see" game

[gmartin]

For those who want a good explanation of pairwise here is a good read. Since it is very unlikely mid majors get a fair shake I wish the NCAA would go this route. Pairwise is very similar to how computer points are awarded in Ohio high school football. You get points on your wins. Greater points for head to head wins. You also get points based on the opponent's you play and the opponents opponent. It's a more true system. Nice read if you have a few extra minutes.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sbncol ... -explained" target="_blank

[Class of 61]

For those who want a good explanation of pairwise here is a good read. Since it is very unlikely mid majors get a fair shake I wish the NCAA would go this route. Pairwise is very similar to how computer points are awarded in Ohio high school football. You get points on your wins. Greater points for head to head wins. You also get points based on the opponent's you play and the opponents opponent. It's a more true system. Nice read if you have a few extra minutes.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sbncol ... -explained" target="_blank

Gmartin,

Thanks for the heads up on this... but it seems like a glorified RPI to me . Probably works better in hockey with only 60 teams to rank.