NCAA Tournament Watch

[TommyG]

There is a good chance the committee just takes teams that seem to have a decent record and not focus much on resumes. You put Denver in WCHA they maybe lose 4-5 games. It’s a really bad conference.

[jpfalcon09]

There is a good chance the committee just takes teams that seem to have a decent record and not focus much on resumes. You put Denver in WCHA they maybe lose 4-5 games. It’s a really bad conference.

Possible. I still believe they're going to take schools where travel is going to be minimal for the regional sites which will favor the big conferences. NCHC stands to gain the most IMO.

[unfalconbelievable]

BG doesn't take of business today, it justifies the sub 500 NCHC and east coast hockey biases teams to get in. 20 wins means little if you can't get past the opening round of your league tournament. Ask the women's basketball team, they just won the league and 75 percent of their games. NIT or sitting at home because they lost the final.

[mbenecke]

BG doesn't take of business today, it justifies the sub 500 NCHC and east coast hockey biases teams to get in. 20 wins means little if you can't get past the opening round of your league tournament. Ask the women's basketball team, they just won the league and 75 percent of their games. NIT or sitting at home because they lost the final.

I mostly agree with this. I still don't think it justifies putting in sub .500 teams, but BG needs to take matters into their own hands here.

[Critical Thinker]

I think you have to say Bemidji and Lake State are the better teams now. Better head to heads, made it out of the first round. No way the WCHA makes 4 teams in. We're done.

[jpfalcon09]

I think you have to say Bemidji and Lake State are the better teams now. Better head to heads, made it out of the first round. No way the WCHA makes 4 teams in. We're done.

This is correct.

[jpfalcon09]

Falcons are 16th in both polls. I think BG are 50/50 at making the tournament if all chalk win their respective conference tournaments and if Bemidji beats Lake. Lots of things have to break the right way.

Teams to root to lose in my opinion:

Army/Canisius (prefer Canisius beats Army then loses to AIC)
Colgate/St. Lawrence
Denver
Lake Superior
UMass-Lowell
Niagara
Northern Michigan

Again it's a lot to ask for but at least gives us something to watch.

[mbenecke]

I think BG is right there on the edge of the bubble and if favorites win the conference tournaments, we’re going to be compared to teams like 10-13-1 Denver and 11-8-5 Providence for the last few spots.

It doesn’t feel like we deserve to be in based on how we played the last month of the season, but I don’t see how you can justify putting either in over us, with clearly inferior records. I think it’s crap to penalize us for staying healthy and playing more games.

[Critical Thinker]

It'll be interesting to see what they make of the NCHC. NoDak, UMD, and SCSU all look like locks. According to Pairwise, the 4th best team is Denver, with a losing record of 10-13-1. After them is Omaha, with a winning record of 14-10-1. Denver also has the better head-to-head winning 3 of 5. It would be hard to argue Omaha should be in over Denver, but I don't think a team with a losing record should make it in at all.

And if we're still in consideration for our record, then the committee will have to take a good look at AIC (13-3-0) and the Army (15-5-1). Though, neither has an impressive win except against the other, and AIC was swept by Quinnipiac. Still, they can take care of teams beneath them when they need to, while we got clubbed by Northern in an elimination game.

[mbenecke]

It'll be interesting to see what they make of the NCHC. NoDak, UMD, and SCSU all look like locks. According to Pairwise, the 4th best team is Denver, with a losing record of 10-13-1. After them is Omaha, with a winning record of 14-10-1. Denver also has the better head-to-head winning 3 of 5. It would be hard to argue Omaha should be in over Denver, but I don't think a team with a losing record should make it in at all.

And if we're still in consideration for our record, then the committee will have to take a good look at AIC (13-3-0) and the Army (15-5-1). Though, neither has an impressive win except against the other, and AIC was swept by Quinnipiac. Still, they can take care of teams beneath them when they need to, while we got clubbed by Northern in an elimination game.

AHC - 1 (Army/AIC winner)
Big Ten - 3 (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan)
ECAC - 1 (Quinnipiac)
Hockey East - 3 (Boston College, UMass, Boston U)
NCHC - 3 (North Dakota, St. Cloud, Duluth)
WCHA - 2 (Minnesota State, Bemidji/LSSU winner)

Those feel like the locks.

So there are 3 spots for the following teams (with projected records based on losing, I guess):

BG 20-11-1
Bemidji 15-9-3/LSSU 17-7-3 loser
Omaha 14-10-1
Providence 11-9-5
Denver 10-13-1
UConn 10-11-2
Army 15-6-1/AIC 13-4-0 loser

I don’t see why we couldn’t still be in... I think we'd be behind Bemidji if they lost to LSSU, but beyond that, I don't see why we couldn't get in over 2 of the rest. Maybe one gets ahead of us, but I struggle to find 2 more worthy teams from that list. Of course, if something happens and we get weird conference champions, we're likely on the outside looking in. But I've found that the more I look at our resume (10 road wins, including a sweep of projected ECAC champ Quinnipiac, only the third or fourth team in the nation with 20 wins, etc.) the more I feel like we may still have at least a prayer.

I think Bemidji beating LSSU may keep the Lakers behind us in the pecking order, so that's what I'll be rooting hard for on Friday night. But I guess we'll see.

[jpfalcon09]

It'll be interesting to see what they make of the NCHC. NoDak, UMD, and SCSU all look like locks. According to Pairwise, the 4th best team is Denver, with a losing record of 10-13-1. After them is Omaha, with a winning record of 14-10-1. Denver also has the better head-to-head winning 3 of 5. It would be hard to argue Omaha should be in over Denver, but I don't think a team with a losing record should make it in at all.

And if we're still in consideration for our record, then the committee will have to take a good look at AIC (13-3-0) and the Army (15-5-1). Though, neither has an impressive win except against the other, and AIC was swept by Quinnipiac. Still, they can take care of teams beneath them when they need to, while we got clubbed by Northern in an elimination game.

AHC - 1 (Army/AIC winner)
Big Ten - 3 (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan)
ECAC - 1 (Quinnipiac)
Hockey East - 3 (Boston College, UMass, Boston U)
NCHC - 3 (North Dakota, St. Cloud, Duluth)
WCHA - 2 (Minnesota State, Bemidji/LSSU winner)

Those feel like the locks.

So there are 3 spots for the following teams (with projected records based on losing, I guess):

BG 20-11-1
Bemidji 15-9-3/LSSU 17-7-3 loser
Omaha 14-10-1
Providence 11-9-5
Denver 10-13-1
UConn 10-11-2
Army 15-6-1/AIC 13-4-0 loser

I don’t see why we couldn’t still be in... I think we'd be behind Bemidji if they lost to LSSU, but beyond that, I don't see why we couldn't get in over 2 of the rest. Maybe one gets ahead of us, but I struggle to find 2 more worthy teams from that list. Of course, if something happens and we get weird conference champions, we're likely on the outside looking in. But I've found that the more I look at our resume (10 road wins, including a sweep of projected ECAC champ Quinnipiac, only the third or fourth team in the nation with 20 wins, etc.) the more I feel like we may still have at least a prayer.

I think Bemidji beating LSSU may keep the Lakers behind us in the pecking order, so that's what I'll be rooting hard for on Friday night. But I guess we'll see.

Here's my breakdown:

Locks

No Dak
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Minnesota State
BC
UMass
Michigan
St. Cloud
AH winner (I'll say AIC)
ECAC winner (I'll say Quinnipiac)

Bubble but likely

UMD
Boston U

Win one more game and in

Bemidji
Providence

Bubble and needs help

Army/AIC if they lose AH tourney
BGSU
Lake Superior
Omaha
Notre Dame

Needs to win conf tournament

Canisius
Colgate
UMass-Lowell
Niagara
Northern Michigan

If the committee looks at records alone then BG has a case. They lose the H2H to Lake, and outside of beating Quinnipiac don't have any other statement wins. If the committee digs deeper, I think they're out compared to the likes of Omaha, and I can see potentially Atlantic Hockey getting a second bid if AIC and Army get to the final.

Long story short, BG likely cost themselves a bid by losing to NMU and it now comes down to a beauty pageant.

[jpfalcon09]

Here's how my bracket looks up to this point. Subject to change with tournaments finishing up this week.

1 seeds - North Dakota, Minnesota, BC, Minnesota State
2 seeds - Wisconsin, UMass, St. Cloud, Michigan
3 seeds - UMD, BU, Quinnipiac, Omaha
4 seeds - Bemidji, Denver, Providence, AIC

Last four out - BGSU, Notre Dame, Lake Superior, Army

[mbenecke]

Can I ask why you put 10-13-1 Denver and 11-9-5 Providence both in ahead of BG?

I guess I can understand one, but I disagree with both. I also think there's a chance the committee really looks at Denver and Omaha and chooses one or the other, not both. In a year like this, I don't think the NCHC deserves 5 bids, but maybe that's just me.

[pdt1081]

Denver is done. There is no justification for them to be in under any circumstance.

[mbenecke]

Denver is done. There is no justification for them to be in under any circumstance.

I tend to agree with this, but who do you then put in?