NCAA Tournament Watch

[pdt1081]

Denver is done. There is no justification for them to be in under any circumstance.

I tend to agree with this, but who do you then put in?

Any team with a winning record. The only argument for Denver is "they play in the NCHC." Well, who cares. They lost more games than they won.

[BGhockeyfan94]

Here's how my bracket looks up to this point. Subject to change with tournaments finishing up this week.

1 seeds - North Dakota, Minnesota, BC, Minnesota State
2 seeds - Wisconsin, UMass, St. Cloud, Michigan
3 seeds - UMD, BU, Quinnipiac, Omaha
4 seeds - Bemidji, Denver, Providence, AIC

Last four out - BGSU, Notre Dame, Lake Superior, Army

I agree with this. I like Denver in, their SOS is 6th according to the RPI. They beat North Dakota twice and then lost in OT to them in the playoffs. They didnt lose in the first round of their tournament either. With the above .500 record not being a thing this year, I think this team would be competitive in the tournament and make it fun to watch. I don't know what the criteria the committee will be following, but I can see them being included.

For the last spot, I am not sure about Providence, but I don't mind it either. We are 18-10-1 against D1 opponents, but I really don't think BG should get in with our abysmal record against the top teams in our league and our 26th SOS (in the RPI). I don't like Notre Dame in there, Army has a good record (winning 74% of their games) but their SOS is horrible. I think it's really a toss up, but I do think that we have a small chance of getting in if there are no league upsets.

I don't think anyone can be upset if the committee does not pick us, we played less than .500 hockey in the second half and got knocked out in the first round.

[jpfalcon09]

Can I ask why you put 10-13-1 Denver and 11-9-5 Providence both in ahead of BG?

I guess I can understand one, but I disagree with both. I also think there's a chance the committee really looks at Denver and Omaha and chooses one or the other, not both. In a year like this, I don't think the NCHC deserves 5 bids, but maybe that's just me.

1. Denver's history in making the tournament. I understand they're below .500 but their SOS and record against UND can be enough of an argument to get them in.

2. The more I've thought about it this week I don't really see a way BG gets in. Their record against the Mavs, BSU, and LSSU is 1-7 with two of those losses in overtime. The sweep against Quinnipiac was early enough in the year to be overlooked. They're simply not an attractive option.

3. PC is always a favorable pick given their proximity to regional sites on the east coast. Make no mistake if Lowell wins the HEA tournament then PC is out. They're not a for sure thing.

[jpfalcon09]

As we all suspected, NMU is up 3-0 on the Mavs midway through the game.

[mbenecke]

As we all suspected, NMU is up 3-0 on the Mavs midway through the game.

If we're "eliminated" by losing to NMU, why isn't Mankato?

I know that's ridiculous logic, but shouldn't the rules be applied evenly across the board? Boston U only played 15 games this year and they choked in the first round of their conference tournament against an inferior team. Why isn't that applied to them, too?

[mbenecke]

As we all suspected, NMU is up 3-0 on the Mavs midway through the game.

If we're "eliminated" by losing to NMU, why isn't Mankato?

I know that's ridiculous logic, but shouldn't the rules be applied evenly across the board? Boston U only played 15 games this year and they choked in the first round of their conference tournament against an inferior team. Why isn't that applied to them, too?

It's 5-0 now. Dryden McKay has been pulled.

[jpfalcon09]

As we all suspected, NMU is up 3-0 on the Mavs midway through the game.

If we're "eliminated" by losing to NMU, why isn't Mankato?

I know that's ridiculous logic, but shouldn't the rules be applied evenly across the board? Boston U only played 15 games this year and they choked in the first round of their conference tournament against an inferior team. Why isn't that applied to them, too?

There's definitely an argument there for BU. Mavs having a bad game during what was a dominant season isn't going to change things.

At this point the concern becomes NMU running the table and stealing the AQ bid. I think we all need to root for Bemidji to win the tournament now. Anyone else means probably 3 WCHA teams make it and BG won't be one of them.

Pisses me off that BG could have won the league tournament this year without needing to go through the Mavs.

[TommyG]

I understand getting upset if BG got legitimately screwed, but they were a lock and then played horrendous hockey down the stretch. They don’t deserve to get in....
If they want at large bids they need to schedule stronger non-conference opponents and need to win games down the stretch. The year they got the at large they won games going into and in the tournament until they collapsed in the final against Mankato. It’s not a hard formula...play a better schedule and don’t struggle in the second half.

[mbenecke]

I understand getting upset if BG got legitimately screwed, but they were a lock and then played horrendous hockey down the stretch. They don’t deserve to get in....
If they want at large bids they need to schedule stronger non-conference opponents and need to win games down the stretch. The year they got the at large they won games going into and in the tournament until they collapsed in the final against Mankato. It’s not a hard formula...play a better schedule and don’t struggle in the second half.

I’m with you there. We obviously have played ourselves into this position. I’m just annoyed with the idea that other teams with far worse records are considered locks over us.

I’m going to be able to live with it because we did it to ourselves and could’ve avoided it by playing to our potential, but it’s frustrating to never get the benefit of the doubt.

[jpfalcon09]

I understand getting upset if BG got legitimately screwed, but they were a lock and then played horrendous hockey down the stretch. They don’t deserve to get in....
If they want at large bids they need to schedule stronger non-conference opponents and need to win games down the stretch. The year they got the at large they won games going into and in the tournament until they collapsed in the final against Mankato. It’s not a hard formula...play a better schedule and don’t struggle in the second half.

I’m with you there. We obviously have played ourselves into this position. I’m just annoyed with the idea that other teams with far worse records are considered locks over us.

I’m going to be able to live with it because we did it to ourselves and could’ve avoided it by playing to our potential, but it’s frustrating to never get the benefit of the doubt.

Comparing records is futile. If BG is in the NCHC or Hockey East, they're probably under .500 for the year. Their play down the stretch speaks for itself, along with their record against the other top teams in the WCHA.

[jbakerifm]

Denver is done. There is no justification for them to be in under any circumstance.

I tend to agree with this, but who do you then put in?

Literally anyone with a winning record. I'm fine with bg not making it - they probably don't deserve it. But letting teams under 500 in the tournament is stupid.

Also forget about pairwise, krach. They are next to meaningless this year.

[jpfalcon09]

Lakers up 3-0 late in the 2nd. WCHA guaranteed at least two teams and that will probably be it. Army also lost in overtime to Canisius.

[jpfalcon09]

Denver is done. There is no justification for them to be in under any circumstance.

I tend to agree with this, but who do you then put in?

Literally anyone with a winning record. I'm fine with bg not making it - they probably don't deserve it. But letting teams under 500 in the tournament is stupid.

Also forget about pairwise, krach. They are next to meaningless this year.

Going to be one or two schools winning auto bids tomorrow to keep the bubble extremely limited to a few teams.

[jpfalcon09]

Lakers are going to win, WCHA guaranteed two teams. Bemidji has a case but they laid an egg tonight.

[jpfalcon09]

Here's how things look today in my opinion, lots still to unfold.

1. No Dak
2. Minnesota
3. BC
4. Mankato
5. Wisconsin
6. St. Cloud
7. UMass
8. Michigan
9. UMD
10. Quinnipiac
11. AH Champ
12. WCHA champ
13. At-Large
14. At-Large
15. At-Large
16. At-Large

Need to win today to get in and would steal an at-large:

St. Lawrence
UMass-Lowell

Bubble:

WCHA - BGSU, BSU, LSSU (if they lose tonight)
AH - AIC (if they lose)
Big Ten - Notre Dame
NCHC - Omaha, Denver
Hockey East - BU, Providence