Expectations have been set

[Schadenfreude]

Head coach Scot Loeffler spoke at the Stone Ridge Golf Club this week, and it was interesting. He couldn't be more clear about expectations. As the Sentinel-Tribune paraphrased him:

Loeffler said this year, in year three, he wants to see the light at the end of the tunnel. This year should show some positive signs towards being a competitive team.

In year four, the team should be competitive. In year five, the Falcons should win the MAC, he said.

Anyway, it was interesting. The fact that he's being this clear about his expectations seems like a good sign.

https://www.sent-trib.com/sports/coach- ... c285b.html

[jpfalcon09]

Head coach Scot Loeffler spoke at the Stone Ridge Golf Club this week, and it was interesting. He couldn't be more clear about expectations. As the Sentinel-Tribune paraphrased him:

Loeffler said this year, in year three, he wants to see the light at the end of the tunnel. This year should show some positive signs towards being a competitive team.

In year four, the team should be competitive. In year five, the Falcons should win the MAC, he said.

Anyway, it was interesting. The fact that he's being this clear about his expectations seems like a good sign.

https://www.sent-trib.com/sports/coach- ... c285b.html

Lofty expectations. Agree the program is still a year away from being competitive in-conference. MAC championship in 2023? Feels like a tall order. The landscape of college football has changed so much though the past year that things could greatly improve or get stuck in neutral given the NIL legislation and transfer rule changes.

[MarkL]

Talk about bold and confident. Loeffler is really setting lofty goals here and has also given his defined measures of success. I hope it all works out because he is both displaying confidence in what he's doing, and also depriving himself of excuses should the build go awry.

Bold and confident.

[mbenecke]

I’m here for it, especially if it comes true.

When was the last time this program actually had lofty expectations? 2015/2016?

It’s time we start seeing some light. This year will still likely be tough, but we’ll see flashes of some young guys that are gonna be here for a while. I’m excited to see this through.

[Schadenfreude]

MAC championship in 2023? Feels like a tall order.

If he gets us into the 2023 title game -- a reasonable goal, in my mind -- I'm not going to nitpick whether the Falcons actually win it.

[FalconTurf]

MAC championship in 2023? Feels like a tall order.

If he gets us into the 2023 title game -- a reasonable goal, in my mind -- I'm not going to nitpick whether the Falcons actually win it.

If we have a shot to win the division in the last week it would be light years ahead of the previous 5 seasons

[OptionQB]

So if there isn't light at the end of the tunnel by December is it still too early to pull the plug?

[BillyLP]

So if there isn't light at the end of the tunnel by December is it still too early to pull the plug?

I actually think it was a pretty strategic way for him to word it. Unless we go 0-12 and lose every game by 50, there will be a way to spin it as light at the end of the tunnel. For a complete rebuild like this, year 4 is the true measuring stick where you have to win games, anyway. If BG ends up pulling off 3, 4, 5 wins, he's going to have people legitimately excited for the future. If he doesn't, he can coach-speak it into improvement.

[Falconwriter]

So if there isn't light at the end of the tunnel by December is it still too early to pull the plug?

I actually think it was a pretty strategic way for him to word it. Unless we go 0-12 and lose every game by 50, there will be a way to spin it as light at the end of the tunnel. For a complete rebuild like this, year 4 is the true measuring stick where you have to win games, anyway. If BG ends up pulling off 3, 4, 5 wins, he's going to have people legitimately excited for the future. If he doesn't, he can coach-speak it into improvement.

No. If they play as poorly as they did a year ago, there's no possible way to spin it as being positive. None. Zero. Zip. He can say the words but nobody -- and I mean nobody -- will buy in. Least of all the players. They'll just see him as some guy spewing BS to save his job.

[roguewarrior]

So if there isn't light at the end of the tunnel by December is it still too early to pull the plug?

I actually think it was a pretty strategic way for him to word it. Unless we go 0-12 and lose every game by 50, there will be a way to spin it as light at the end of the tunnel. For a complete rebuild like this, year 4 is the true measuring stick where you have to win games, anyway. If BG ends up pulling off 3, 4, 5 wins, he's going to have people legitimately excited for the future. If he doesn't, he can coach-speak it into improvement.

No. If they play as poorly as they did a year ago, there's no possible way to spin it as being positive. None. Zero. Zip. He can say the words but nobody -- and I mean nobody -- will buy in. Least of all the players. They'll just see him as some guy spewing BS to save his job.

I have to agree. I said it before, they cannot look like fall 2020, nor should they. The talent is there to win a few games we should, and 1 or two we shouldn’t. If we are a train wreck, there is a problem. You have to be good behind the scenes, which they seem to be, AND X’s and O’s.

[hammb]

AND X’s and O’s.

Therein lies the rub, eh

I've seen nothing to make me think they have a plan or playbook that works in this era. Let's hope they've been working on something new, because it's backs against the wall time.

[MarkL]

AND X’s and O’s.

Therein lies the rub, eh

I've seen nothing to make me think they have a plan or playbook that works in this era. Let's hope they've been working on something new, because it's backs against the wall time.

Loeffler's three QBs have been
- a guy pulled from Home Depot after retiring from CFB due to injury
- a guy with the frame of a TE and with HS footwork approximate to that of a water buffalo
- a guy playing all season with an injured throwing arm

His offensive line was so thin that four true freshmen played much of the Kent State game. A TE aside, no receivers to mention. Inherited an absurdly thin defense.

Urban Meyer tore up the MAC with a prior 2-9 team. Brian Kelly tore up the Big East with (checks notes) Tony Pike and Zach Collaros at QB. Ryan Day as OC set all kinds of passing records using a QB who has proven to be nothing but a headache and a turnover machine at the next level. These are all elite, rare coaches.

Point is, unless you are a truly top notch coach, you need talent before you can evaluate Xs and Os. Otherwise you have to play with what you have and call plays acknowledging your limitations. I cannot really evaluate the playcalling with any fairness, not until Loeffler has been afforded an honest chance to recruit and develop. And I have no delusions that Loeffler is a Meyer or a Kelly. Those guys are rare.

[hammb]

AND X’s and O’s.

Therein lies the rub, eh

I've seen nothing to make me think they have a plan or playbook that works in this era. Let's hope they've been working on something new, because it's backs against the wall time.

Loeffler's three QBs have been
- a guy pulled from Home Depot after retiring from CFB due to injury
- a guy with the frame of a TE and with HS footwork approximate to that of a water buffalo
- a guy playing all season with an injured throwing arm

His offensive line was so thin that four true freshmen played much of the Kent State game. A TE aside, no receivers to mention. Inherited an absurdly thin defense.

Urban Meyer tore up the MAC with a prior 2-9 team. Brian Kelly tore up the Big East with (checks notes) Tony Pike and Zach Collaros at QB. Ryan Day as OC set all kinds of passing records using a QB who has proven to be nothing but a headache and a turnover machine at the next level. These are all elite, rare coaches.

Point is, unless you are a truly top notch coach, you need talent before you can evaluate Xs and Os. Otherwise you have to play with what you have and call plays acknowledging your limitations. I cannot really evaluate the playcalling with any fairness, not until Loeffler has been afforded an honest chance to recruit and develop. And I have no delusions that Loeffler is a Meyer or a Kelly. Those guys are rare.

Duly noted and acknowledged. My point is any coach worth his salt, and by that I mean a guy who will eventually be good enough to coach a talented team to a MAC title run, will have even lesser teams playing competitive (if not winning) football in the MAC.

The MAC is a mostly lousy conference. The quality of football in this conference is a shell of what it used to be. Any competent coaching staff should be able to take over any roster in this league and at least COMPETE in games on a somewhat consistent basis (IMO) by the end of year 1, and definitely into year 2.

Any coach needs to have talent to win this league. And I do NOT ever expect to stumble into another Urban Meyer (AFAIC, we had 2 years of the best coaching in all of D1 football). Still, I don't believe any good coach would ever produce results as bad as Loeffler regardless of how little talent we had. Hell Jinks (who I agree was an awful coach) had his teams far more competitive than Loeffler has. In 2 years Loeffler is 3-14, and 13 of those losses have been by 28 or more points. The lone "competitive" loss was STILL an 18 point loss; in his tenure BG has been outscored 688-249, a margin that grows to 685-203 if you eliminate the one FCS team we played.

It's just my opinion, and we all know what opinions are worth, but to me no coach worth employing would ever produce a 2 year stretch of football that bad. We've let the Loeffler era's futility, combined with how good Clawson/Babers eras were, to amplify the awfulness of Jinks's teams. Bottom line, Loeffler (THUS FAR) looks like a worse coach than Jinks, and that is a difficult feat to pull off.

[jpfalcon09]

AND X’s and O’s.

Therein lies the rub, eh

I've seen nothing to make me think they have a plan or playbook that works in this era. Let's hope they've been working on something new, because it's backs against the wall time.

Loeffler's three QBs have been
- a guy pulled from Home Depot after retiring from CFB due to injury
- a guy with the frame of a TE and with HS footwork approximate to that of a water buffalo
- a guy playing all season with an injured throwing arm

His offensive line was so thin that four true freshmen played much of the Kent State game. A TE aside, no receivers to mention. Inherited an absurdly thin defense.

Urban Meyer tore up the MAC with a prior 2-9 team. Brian Kelly tore up the Big East with (checks notes) Tony Pike and Zach Collaros at QB. Ryan Day as OC set all kinds of passing records using a QB who has proven to be nothing but a headache and a turnover machine at the next level. These are all elite, rare coaches.

Point is, unless you are a truly top notch coach, you need talent before you can evaluate Xs and Os. Otherwise you have to play with what you have and call plays acknowledging your limitations. I cannot really evaluate the playcalling with any fairness, not until Loeffler has been afforded an honest chance to recruit and develop. And I have no delusions that Loeffler is a Meyer or a Kelly. Those guys are rare.

Duly noted and acknowledged. My point is any coach worth his salt, and by that I mean a guy who will eventually be good enough to coach a talented team to a MAC title run, will have even lesser teams playing competitive (if not winning) football in the MAC.

The MAC is a mostly lousy conference. The quality of football in this conference is a shell of what it used to be. Any competent coaching staff should be able to take over any roster in this league and at least COMPETE in games on a somewhat consistent basis (IMO) by the end of year 1, and definitely into year 2.

Any coach needs to have talent to win this league. And I do NOT ever expect to stumble into another Urban Meyer (AFAIC, we had 2 years of the best coaching in all of D1 football). Still, I don't believe any good coach would ever produce results as bad as Loeffler regardless of how little talent we had. Hell Jinks (who I agree was an awful coach) had his teams far more competitive than Loeffler has. In 2 years Loeffler is 3-14, and 13 of those losses have been by 28 or more points. The lone "competitive" loss was STILL an 18 point loss; in his tenure BG has been outscored 688-249, a margin that grows to 685-203 if you eliminate the one FCS team we played.

It's just my opinion, and we all know what opinions are worth, but to me no coach worth employing would ever produce a 2 year stretch of football that bad. We've let the Loeffler era's futility, combined with how good Clawson/Babers eras were, to amplify the awfulness of Jinks's teams. Bottom line, Loeffler (THUS FAR) looks like a worse coach than Jinks, and that is a difficult feat to pull off.

Expecting Loeffler to magically reverse the myriad of issues that permeated the football program to its core in a matter of a year is simply unrealistic. The problems were far deeper than wins and losses. It takes times to purge that toxicity. Any coach who stepped foot into Bowling Green following the absolute dumpster fire that Mike Jinks and his staff left would have encountered the same pitfalls. This is no endorsement of Scot Loeffler either, it's an acknowledgement of the reality of the state of Bowling Green football. I wish that part was easier to understand to some people who find it so easy to criticize.

[MarkL]

The reality I have come to is that no matter how bad of state we all thought the program was in back in 2018 when Jinks was fired, it was so much worse, and I was one of the voices sounding the alarm the loudest about troubling roster attrition. Loeffler didn't know how bad it was, and Moose probably didn't fully understand it. Honestly I would rather be a coach of a brand new program built from scratch, like has been done in recent years at Charlotte or Coastal Carolina, because at least there you are starting from a "zero" point rather than a pit of quicksand.

If everyone actually knew how badly Jinks wrecked the program, then nobody, Loeffler included, would have taken the job. No head coach wants to start out 3-14 with all losses by 3+ possessions, most far worse than that. It is a career setback that takes years of success to right and I hope for the program and for Loeffler that he does right it.

Honestly if the whole world knew just how awful condition the program was in, our current head coach would be Greg Studrawa because he would have been drawn in by the collegiate connection.

I hope Loeffler is right about seeing light at the end of the tunnel soon. I respect him for taking the slow and difficult road of recruiting and establishing the culture rather than just bring in a thousand transfers and hope for the best. I respect Moose for having the patience and withstanding an impatient fanbase. It is just so frustrating that it won't be until year four where you can actually evaluate if the plan is working and will work going forward.