The final Great Realignment of College Football?

[Flipper]

OU and Texas are trying to get into the SEC. If that happens....Bye Bye Big 12.....

Divvy up the schools left between the Big 10, PAC 12 and ACC. Four conferences, 16 teams each and Notre Dame.

[BillyLP]

I'd actually be surprised of the powers of the SEC would want those two schools in their conference, especially with Texas doing their own sports network. Alabama, LSU, Florida, Georgia like winning every year, and that'd happen less frequently with those two in the mix.

That said, money is everything.

[hammb]

I won't believe it's the FINAL great re-alignment until the true top teams are consolidated into one power conference.

Right now they're drunk as hell on the mega bucks they generate with the conference TV contracts. They're also still all drunk on winning 10+ games every season.

But at some point they're going to sacrifice those 10+ wins for the extra bucks. A mega league where Alabama, LSU, Florida, Georgia, Ohio State, Clemson, Florida State, Oklahoma, Texas, and USC are all in the same group will make them even MORE money than they've ever seen. It may not end up as a single conference as much as 2 conferences of 12-15 teams each that create their own entire DIVISION above the current D1 FBS level.

[jpfalcon09]

I won't believe it's the FINAL great re-alignment until the true top teams are consolidated into one power conference.

Right now they're drunk as hell on the mega bucks they generate with the conference TV contracts. They're also still all drunk on winning 10+ games every season.

But at some point they're going to sacrifice those 10+ wins for the extra bucks. A mega league where Alabama, LSU, Florida, Georgia, Ohio State, Clemson, Florida State, Oklahoma, Texas, and USC are all in the same group will make them even MORE money than they've ever seen. It may not end up as a single conference as much as 2 conferences of 12-15 teams each that create their own entire DIVISION above the current D1 FBS level.

Mega power conference that will separate from the NCAA, no less. The rest will be left to deal with the fallout. The NIL legislation debacle is just the first of many events leading towards this solution. Too much money to be had for it not to happen.

The smaller conferences should just get out while they can.

[MarkL]

Anyone besides me feel like the realignment that began in 2011 with Nebraska moving to the Big Ten ended up not as a slippery slope, but rather an avalanche towards morphing college football from a quaint fun Saturday afternoon to effectively a cash driven professional sport?

I mean think about the progression. Big 12 nearly collapsed with Nebraska, A&M, and Colorado bolting. The Big East collapsed when Louisville, WV, Pitt, Syracuse, and Rutgers got picked off. Historic rivalries be damned, there are dollars to earn.

Then the playoff is enacted, resulting in just the elite few rising higher to the top. The playoff champions to date include just four programs - OSU, Clemson, Alabama, and LSU, in 7 years. The 28 playoff teams to date have only included 11 individual programs. The playoff was supposed to open access for more possible championship teams but has rather just made the top few even more elite, perhaps unstoppable at this point.

Quaint Saturday afternoon entertainment? 100 year rivalries that have created the lore for so many university experiences? Make way for the dollar. And if you are not one of those top programs, you are just fodder. Bowl games are relegated to meaningless, even big games as you see top ten caliber teams having players sit out to prep for the NFL. The sport has gotten too big for it's own good and I do not believe it can or ever will be reigned back in. CFB is just NFL lite now and that is for the detriment of the sport at large.

[MarkL]

The smaller conferences should just get out while they can.

When you say get out, I'm curious what do you mean. As in MAC, MWC, etc form their own league so as not to be just a pawn in OSU's and Alabama's quests for more money? Because I'd listen to the right proposal for that. Hell, programs like Illinois and Vanderbilt might listen to that.

[hammb]

Too much money to be had for it not to happen.

That is the key quote. Too much money to be had.

I think we can almost unanimously agree that Big time college football (The OSU, Bama, Okalahoma, etc) level is every bit as huge and a popular as the NFL, right? Those teams consistently put more butts in seats than the NFL does (even though 80% of the games are boring blowouts), and should easily drive up just as much television revenue.

Coming from the perspective of the lowly MAC we think about how OSU and the like are raking in the dollars like an NFL team, right?

Well, for perspective, there is absolutely still money on the table. And I agree with you, it's too much money for it to not happen. OSU in '19-20 brought in $240m in sports revenue across ALL SPORTS. Comparatively in 2019 the Las Vegas Raiders were the lowest revenue earning NFL team in the league, with a whopping $383m

So the bottom of the barrel NFL teams are bringing in more than 50% more revenue than the upper echelon NCAA teams are currently, across ALL of their sports footprint. Unless somebody is going to dispute my premise that college football is as big as the NFL, I firmly believe the powerhouse programs are leaving revenue on the table by negotiating individual conference contracts where the bulk of those games are Illinois-vs-Purdue to see who plays in the Holiday Bowl. OSU/Bama/LSU/etc are probably costing themselves (conservatively) $100m/yr by continuing the "traditional" conference alignments.

Yeah, there's too much money for it not to happen.

[jpfalcon09]

The smaller conferences should just get out while they can.

When you say get out, I'm curious what do you mean. As in MAC, MWC, etc form their own league so as not to be just a pawn in OSU's and Alabama's quests for more money? Because I'd listen to the right proposal for that. Hell, programs like Illinois and Vanderbilt might listen to that.

Get out as in, divert your resources to other athletics where the effort isn't going wind up being futile.

The model of college football is heading in a direction that makes no sense for the have-nots. The rat race is eventually going to become too much of a cross to bear and schools are going to jump ship with their programs. If the mega powers combine, the market for secondary college football probably isn't going to have much demand. Throw up a wall of Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, Oklahoma, Texas, etc. all playing each other on Saturdays from noon to midnight, and it's all she wrote for everyone else. No one else is going to matter.

[BillyLP]

The smaller conferences should just get out while they can.

When you say get out, I'm curious what do you mean. As in MAC, MWC, etc form their own league so as not to be just a pawn in OSU's and Alabama's quests for more money? Because I'd listen to the right proposal for that. Hell, programs like Illinois and Vanderbilt might listen to that.

Get out as in, divert your resources to other athletics where the effort isn't going wind up being futile.

The model of college football is heading in a direction that makes no sense for the have-nots. The rat race is eventually going to become too much of a cross to bear and schools are going to jump ship with their programs. If the mega powers combine, the market for secondary college football probably isn't going to have much demand. Throw up a wall of Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, Oklahoma, Texas, etc. all playing each other on Saturdays from noon to midnight, and it's all she wrote for everyone else. No one else is going to matter.

I don't know if I agree with this entirely. I think the number of dollars going to coaches/scholarships/facilities will wane, but there are a lot of FCS programs out there that have a ton of success and put lots of butts in seats, even though no national coverage really comes their way. I think it will require a huge pivot and lots of programs will not continue (in this hypothetical situation), but there will still be a place for "small college" football.

[Schadenfreude]

While the money looks good in the short term, I have to wonder how long fans of once proud football powerhouses will tolerate cheering for also-rans.

Is Arkansas really better off in the SEC? Is Texas A&M really better off? How about Missouri? I don't doubt that the money is better, but the records aren't nearly as gaudy as they used to be, by and large.

It's difficult for me to imagine Texas or Oklahoma dominating the SEC the way they did their old conferences (and in the case of Texas, "dominate" is a stretch).

At some point, this doesn't really work for all involved. For every 10-1 team, there is a sub .500 team. Non conference games can only put so much lipstick on the pigs.

I'm not saying the SEC won't add more teams at some point if the money appears to be there. But I have this nagging sense it might not be sustainable.

[jpfalcon09]

While the money looks good in the short term, I have to wonder how long fans of once proud football powerhouses will tolerate cheering for also-rans.

Is Arkansas really better off in the SEC? Is Texas A&M really better off? How about Missouri? I don't doubt that the money is better, but the records aren't nearly as gaudy as they used to be, by and large.

It's difficult for me to imagine Texas or Oklahoma dominating the SEC the way they did their old conferences (and in the case of Texas, "dominate" is a stretch).

At some point, this doesn't really work for all involved. For every 10-1 team, there is a sub .500 team. Non conference games can only put so much lipstick on the pigs.

I'm not saying the SEC won't add more teams at some point if the money appears to be there. But I have this nagging sense it might not be sustainable.

Vanderbilt and South Carolina will gladly count their millions while getting pummeled every week. If I were a fan of those programs though? It's lights out. The effort to become elite just became that much more immense. Simply getting to a bowl game will be goal. Sounds like mid-major football.

[Flipper]

hammb....i hesitated somewhat over using the term "final" because it implies a cap on the extent to which Universities will whore themselves out for football $$$$.

I can definitely see the scenario you described coming to fruition at some point down the line. I have long held that mid majors like the MAC need to band together with other non power conferences to find a sensible model for competing together. Who knows...maybe they did the math and decided they'll eat better attached like a zebra mussel to the hull of the NFL lite

[mbenecke]

I'm reading that Oklahoma and Texas to the SEC is "officially" in motion, and that Kansas is looking to join the Big Ten.

[Schadenfreude]

I'm reading that Oklahoma and Texas to the SEC is "officially" in motion, and that Kansas is looking to join the Big Ten.

I suppose Kansas and (I'm just throwing this out there) UConn would add some value, but if the motivation is to stay as relevant as the SEC, two better choices for the Big Ten might be Virginia and North Carolina.

[jpfalcon09]

I'm reading that Oklahoma and Texas to the SEC is "officially" in motion, and that Kansas is looking to join the Big Ten.

I suppose Kansas and (I'm just throwing this out there) UConn would add some value, but if the motivation is to stay as relevant as the SEC, two better choices for the Big Ten might be Virginia and North Carolina.

Virginia and UNC aren't in any need to move though. KU would be a nice add for the Big Ten on the hoops side of things. I could see Iowa State being the second to join.

West:

Kansas
Iowa State
Iowa
Nebraska
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Illinois
Northwestern

East:
Indiana
Purdue
Michigan
Michigan State
Ohio State
Penn State
Maryland
Rutgers