Northern can still theoretically finish in third place, but they'd have to win out, Bemidji would have to lose out (this includes being swept by St. Thomas), and the Lakers would need to split both of their series with us and St. Thomas (Tommies would need to go 3-for-4).
Here's the "points magic numbers" for a couple of scenarios. For example, Bemidji stays in third with any combination of BSU wins and BG losses that equals 9 points. I did not include tie breakers so if we win the tie breaker with LSSU then that magic number drops to 9.
3rd place, Bemidji: BG-9, LSSU-6, NMU-2
4th place, BG: LSSU-10, NMU-6
Our most likely first round playoff opponent is the Lakers. Four games in a row with these guys, hopefully they're not all in the Soo.
TalonsUpPuckDown wrote: ↑Tue Feb 15, 2022 11:11 am
I ran some figures this morning. For us to lock up 4th we need a minimum of 2 wins...BUT...one of those wins must come on the road at LSSU. If we sweep Northern but the Lakers win out we end up in 5th. Lakers visit the Fighting Rico's this week. Go Tommies.
9 points and it doesn't matter what any other team actually does.
Crazy to think BG can get swept this weekend and still be in control of the final home ice spot, with the possibility of 3rd (lots of help). Could also lose out and end up in 7th. Any way to root for St Thomas and not Rico?
So, possibly win a round and then get wiped off the ice by Minnesota State. Honestly, hard to get excited about that scenario. But if there's any year where BG sneaks up on anyone, let it be this year where things have been consistently inconsistent.
Maybe Barber will actually tell the guys to bring the energy every night once the playoffs start.
I've been reading the basketball thread throughout the year with morbid curiosity and was wondering about a comment that was recently made regarding revenue sports. I put together the following graph that shows average yearly attendance for various CCHA members as well as BG MBB (the Covid season is not represented). From an attendance standpoint the hockey program is having their best year in a long time. We're currently on par with Northern, Tech, and Bemidji. Mankato is in another universe. I included Miami State purely for the schadenfreude (sorry Shad...).
This is not to say that hockey, as a revenue sport, is "better off" than MBB as we all know the costs for each don't compare. However, I was surprised to see the difference in attendance between the two.
Hockey plays 99% of it's home games on Friday and Saturday nights very few exceptions. Basketball is played on random nights during the week for atleast half of conference home games. But yes, hockey is way more popular at BG, and it isn't even as close as the graph shows.
guest44 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 9:20 am
Hockey plays 99% of it's home games on Friday and Saturday nights very few exceptions. Basketball is played on random nights during the week for atleast half of conference home games. But yes, hockey is way more popular at BG, and it isn't even as close as the graph shows.
I dug up the DOW (day-of-week) for each home basketball game played starting in the 2017-2018 season. Excel didn't find much in the way of correlation between attendance and DOW.
Anecdotally, it looks to my uneducated eye that:
o Toledo brings 'em in regardless of DOW
o The Falcon Nation doesn't give a s**t about playing the "Lake Erie Colleges" of the basketball world regardless of DOW
o Attendance is higher for what I recall were "big" games (like Ohio/Akron/Buffalo for the last three home games in 2019-20) regardless of DOW
jpfalcon09 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 16, 2022 11:39 am
So, possibly win a round and then get wiped off the ice by Minnesota State. Honestly, hard to get excited about that scenario. But if there's any year where BG sneaks up on anyone, let it be this year where things have been consistently inconsistent.
Maybe Barber will actually tell the guys to bring the energy every night once the playoffs start.
If it's hard for fans to get excited about it, how do you expect players to? Truthfully, this season is ripe for some surprising results simply because no one expects it.
jpfalcon09 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 16, 2022 11:39 am
So, possibly win a round and then get wiped off the ice by Minnesota State. Honestly, hard to get excited about that scenario. But if there's any year where BG sneaks up on anyone, let it be this year where things have been consistently inconsistent.
Maybe Barber will actually tell the guys to bring the energy every night once the playoffs start.
If it's hard for fans to get excited about it, how do you expect players to? Truthfully, this season is ripe for some surprising results simply because no one expects it.
I mean, I got excited when I played and only parents showed up. I understand the season is long and takes a toll, but you only get so many games at the collegiate level. Can't imagine not wanting to be up for everyone of them.
guest44 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 9:20 am
Hockey plays 99% of it's home games on Friday and Saturday nights very few exceptions. Basketball is played on random nights during the week for atleast half of conference home games. But yes, hockey is way more popular at BG, and it isn't even as close as the graph shows.
I dug up the DOW (day-of-week) for each home basketball game played starting in the 2017-2018 season. Excel didn't find much in the way of correlation between attendance and DOW.
Anecdotally, it looks to my uneducated eye that:
o Toledo brings 'em in regardless of DOW
o The Falcon Nation doesn't give a s**t about playing the "Lake Erie Colleges" of the basketball world regardless of DOW
o Attendance is higher for what I recall were "big" games (like Ohio/Akron/Buffalo for the last three home games in 2019-20) regardless of DOW
It's really apples and oranges. From a league perspective, there are zero common opponents, and with the Miami series going out the door it appears only WMU will be the sole MAC/CCHA/NCHC crossover. Hockey also plays in a conference with a perennial top five program (Minn St.) and several others who fluctuate into the top 20 (Tech, LSSU, Bemidji, NMU). Hockey is also able to still pull in the likes of Ohio State for a home game every 2-3 years which basketball will never, ever get the opportunity to do, regardless of what's being done with the Frack endowment.
I’ll stick with my previous comment…this program is heading firmly in the wrong direction. Maybe they should try to change the name of the league back to WCHA.
TommyG wrote: ↑Sat Feb 19, 2022 11:24 pm
I’ll stick with my previous comment…this program is heading firmly in the wrong direction.
I'm not convinced. Yeah, we stink and this season has been a huge disappointment, but considering how many experienced players we lost in the offseason, plus our starting goalie this season, we're still right around where we were predicted to be. We're (usually) not getting destroyed in our losses, so I don't think it's a given we're headed in the wrong direction.
If we head into the Spring semester of 2023 with a losing record, then I think it'll be undeniable.
I ran a whole bunch of scenarios this morning. I'll spare everyone the details. Bottom line - if Northern wins out at home against Ferris, then anything less than a BG or Lakers sweep in the Soo puts the Wildcats in 4th as they will win the tiebreakers (as far as I can tell).
