Regression to the mean. Common sports wagering psychology. Bettors see Marshall having a bit of a letdown after a big win, and expect BG to come out with a better effort for their Homecoming game. I expect you'll see the line move in Marshall's favor closer to kickoff as the public starts to bet more - only degenerates like me jump on early lines where we see perceived value.MarkL wrote: ↑Wed Sep 14, 2022 12:53 pm How to beat Marshall ....
- no turnovers
- no bad snaps
- TDs and not FGs in the red zone
- no ill time penalties
- slow but not necessarily stop the run
- slow down the offense which did more damage to ND than the CJ Stroud led Buckeyes did
- no letting the Marshall offense off the hook when they're behind the chains
- block another punt
Yeah, how on earth is this betting line only 3 possessions?
Marshall -18 at Bowling Green
- jpfalcon09
- Peregrine

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Re: Marshall -18 at Bowling Green
The longer the walk, the farther you crawl.
Re: Marshall -18 at Bowling Green
Rasheem Ali is back for Marshall this week, completing maybe the best RB duo in college football. I'd expect the line to go back up again.
BG '10
Attended more games than any responsible student should have.
Attended more games than any responsible student should have.
Re: Marshall -18 at Bowling Green
Probably right. Thing is if the team plays a clean game, they cover. Team hasn't played a clean game yet. EKU was lost on self-imposed mistakes. The quarter of doom. Four straight drives in scoring position but only scoring 17. Horribly timed defensive penalties on the last drive in regulation. Allowing EKU to convert a 2nd and 22 between a missed tackle and an offsides. Not getting to the QB on a 2pt conversion from the 18. Play clean and they cover against Marshall. Now I'm not a betting man and I certainly wouldn't bet on teams where I've got an emotional interest, so make your own picks!jpfalcon09 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 14, 2022 1:10 pmRegression to the mean. Common sports wagering psychology. Bettors see Marshall having a bit of a letdown after a big win, and expect BG to come out with a better effort for their Homecoming game. I expect you'll see the line move in Marshall's favor closer to kickoff as the public starts to bet more - only degenerates like me jump on early lines where we see perceived value.MarkL wrote: ↑Wed Sep 14, 2022 12:53 pm How to beat Marshall ....
- no turnovers
- no bad snaps
- TDs and not FGs in the red zone
- no ill time penalties
- slow but not necessarily stop the run
- slow down the offense which did more damage to ND than the CJ Stroud led Buckeyes did
- no letting the Marshall offense off the hook when they're behind the chains
- block another punt
Yeah, how on earth is this betting line only 3 possessions?
MarkL has spoken.
You may all now return to your daily lives.
You may all now return to your daily lives.
- Falconfreak90
- Rubber City Falcon

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Re: Marshall -18 at Bowling Green
Will be interesting to see how both teams respond. I was surprised the line was only BG +16.5. Think back to 1998...BG 2-5, ranked 8-0 Marshall. BG won 34-13. If Loeffler is gonna save his job, this is the week he does. at least that's how I see it. Looking forward to Jager shots and beers by noon. GO BG!
Michael W.
BGSU-12 TIME MAC CHAMPION
FALCON FOOTBALL ROCKS!
BGSU-12 TIME MAC CHAMPION
FALCON FOOTBALL ROCKS!
Re: Marshall -18 at Bowling Green
Well… it’s Gameday in Bowling Green, Ohio.
Happy Homecoming, everyone! Party hard, and have a DD plan ahead of time. Be safe, Falcons!
Happy Homecoming, everyone! Party hard, and have a DD plan ahead of time. Be safe, Falcons!
BGSU '20
Re: Marshall -18 at Bowling Green
Hate a 5 PM kickoff. Good luck Falcons!
Watching Gameday it’s unreal to see the Sun Belt being where the MAC used to be. All these folks moving to the South over the last 20 years is fully cementing that area as the CFB hotbed
Watching Gameday it’s unreal to see the Sun Belt being where the MAC used to be. All these folks moving to the South over the last 20 years is fully cementing that area as the CFB hotbed
- roguewarrior
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Re: Marshall -18 at Bowling Green
So the team stayed at some dump motel last night. Some travel players had to drive there themselves and back to campus after meetings because there weren’t enough beds. Marshall stayed at our ordinary Perrysburg hotel, as they got their reservation in before us.
It’s not my point of view, it’s a fact.
Re: Marshall -18 at Bowling Green
Sounds about right.
Re: Marshall -18 at Bowling Green
That's why they pay these administrators the big bucks. If it doesn't involve tweeting, it's just not as important.roguewarrior wrote: ↑Sat Sep 17, 2022 10:27 am So the team stayed at some dump motel last night. Some travel players had to drive there themselves and back to campus after meetings because there weren’t enough beds. Marshall stayed at our ordinary Perrysburg hotel, as they got their reservation in before us.
Re: Marshall -18 at Bowling Green
Yeah that's pretty much it. When I was in college, the Sun Belt was a joke conference. One bowl bid a year to the champion. Might as well be a 1AA. Fast forward to now and each of those teams are basically rosters of kids who the SEC passed on. Kinda concerned about the future of the MAC.
MarkL has spoken.
You may all now return to your daily lives.
You may all now return to your daily lives.
- jpfalcon09
- Peregrine

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Re: Marshall -18 at Bowling Green
If things go the way of the super conferences would it make sense for the MAC and SBC to join together? Winner of each league plays each other in a title game? Would maximize playoff potential. MAC needs to be proactive.MarkL wrote: ↑Sat Sep 17, 2022 10:50 amYeah that's pretty much it. When I was in college, the Sun Belt was a joke conference. One bowl bid a year to the champion. Might as well be a 1AA. Fast forward to now and each of those teams are basically rosters of kids who the SEC passed on. Kinda concerned about the future of the MAC.
The longer the walk, the farther you crawl.
Re: Marshall -18 at Bowling Green
100%, lol they had to play in the New Orleans Bowl. Meanwhile in 2003 we had #11 Miami OH vs #18 Bowling Green for a MAC title. Whoever in this league can get a steady southern pipeline for recruiting going will really establish something great. With ND/MSU/UM/OSU and now Cincy being legit it’s just getting harder and harder to recruit in the Great LakesMarkL wrote: ↑Sat Sep 17, 2022 10:50 amYeah that's pretty much it. When I was in college, the Sun Belt was a joke conference. One bowl bid a year to the champion. Might as well be a 1AA. Fast forward to now and each of those teams are basically rosters of kids who the SEC passed on. Kinda concerned about the future of the MAC.
- Schadenfreude
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Re: Marshall -18 at Bowling Green
Well said. This game is looking as tough as that 1998 game. No time like now to shock the world.Falconfreak90 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 16, 2022 10:21 pm I was surprised the line was only BG +16.5. Think back to 1998...BG 2-5, ranked 8-0 Marshall. BG won 34-13. If Loeffler is gonna save his job, this is the week he does. at least that's how I see it.
- Flipper
- The Global Village Idiot

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Re: Marshall -18 at Bowling Green
Gotta be more alert than that
It's not the fall that hurts...it's when you hit the ground.
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HoopsFan
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Re: Marshall -18 at Bowling Green
Wow! A trick play....

