Marshall -18 at Bowling Green

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jpfalcon09
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Re: Marshall -18 at Bowling Green

Post by jpfalcon09 »

MarkL wrote: Wed Sep 14, 2022 12:53 pm How to beat Marshall ....
- no turnovers
- no bad snaps
- TDs and not FGs in the red zone
- no ill time penalties
- slow but not necessarily stop the run
- slow down the offense which did more damage to ND than the CJ Stroud led Buckeyes did
- no letting the Marshall offense off the hook when they're behind the chains
- block another punt

Yeah, how on earth is this betting line only 3 possessions?
Regression to the mean. Common sports wagering psychology. Bettors see Marshall having a bit of a letdown after a big win, and expect BG to come out with a better effort for their Homecoming game. I expect you'll see the line move in Marshall's favor closer to kickoff as the public starts to bet more - only degenerates like me jump on early lines where we see perceived value.
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BillyLP
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Re: Marshall -18 at Bowling Green

Post by BillyLP »

Rasheem Ali is back for Marshall this week, completing maybe the best RB duo in college football. I'd expect the line to go back up again.
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MarkL
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Re: Marshall -18 at Bowling Green

Post by MarkL »

jpfalcon09 wrote: Wed Sep 14, 2022 1:10 pm
MarkL wrote: Wed Sep 14, 2022 12:53 pm How to beat Marshall ....
- no turnovers
- no bad snaps
- TDs and not FGs in the red zone
- no ill time penalties
- slow but not necessarily stop the run
- slow down the offense which did more damage to ND than the CJ Stroud led Buckeyes did
- no letting the Marshall offense off the hook when they're behind the chains
- block another punt

Yeah, how on earth is this betting line only 3 possessions?
Regression to the mean. Common sports wagering psychology. Bettors see Marshall having a bit of a letdown after a big win, and expect BG to come out with a better effort for their Homecoming game. I expect you'll see the line move in Marshall's favor closer to kickoff as the public starts to bet more - only degenerates like me jump on early lines where we see perceived value.
Probably right. Thing is if the team plays a clean game, they cover. Team hasn't played a clean game yet. EKU was lost on self-imposed mistakes. The quarter of doom. Four straight drives in scoring position but only scoring 17. Horribly timed defensive penalties on the last drive in regulation. Allowing EKU to convert a 2nd and 22 between a missed tackle and an offsides. Not getting to the QB on a 2pt conversion from the 18. Play clean and they cover against Marshall. Now I'm not a betting man and I certainly wouldn't bet on teams where I've got an emotional interest, so make your own picks!
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Re: Marshall -18 at Bowling Green

Post by Falconfreak90 »

Will be interesting to see how both teams respond. I was surprised the line was only BG +16.5. Think back to 1998...BG 2-5, ranked 8-0 Marshall. BG won 34-13. If Loeffler is gonna save his job, this is the week he does. at least that's how I see it. Looking forward to Jager shots and beers by noon. GO BG!
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Re: Marshall -18 at Bowling Green

Post by mbenecke »

Well… it’s Gameday in Bowling Green, Ohio.

Happy Homecoming, everyone! Party hard, and have a DD plan ahead of time. Be safe, Falcons!
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Re: Marshall -18 at Bowling Green

Post by Bgsu2016 »

Hate a 5 PM kickoff. Good luck Falcons!

Watching Gameday it’s unreal to see the Sun Belt being where the MAC used to be. All these folks moving to the South over the last 20 years is fully cementing that area as the CFB hotbed
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Re: Marshall -18 at Bowling Green

Post by roguewarrior »

So the team stayed at some dump motel last night. Some travel players had to drive there themselves and back to campus after meetings because there weren’t enough beds. Marshall stayed at our ordinary Perrysburg hotel, as they got their reservation in before us.
It’s not my point of view, it’s a fact.
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Re: Marshall -18 at Bowling Green

Post by kdog27 »

Sounds about right.
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Re: Marshall -18 at Bowling Green

Post by guest44 »

roguewarrior wrote: Sat Sep 17, 2022 10:27 am So the team stayed at some dump motel last night. Some travel players had to drive there themselves and back to campus after meetings because there weren’t enough beds. Marshall stayed at our ordinary Perrysburg hotel, as they got their reservation in before us.
That's why they pay these administrators the big bucks. If it doesn't involve tweeting, it's just not as important.
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Re: Marshall -18 at Bowling Green

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Bgsu2016 wrote: Sat Sep 17, 2022 10:06 am Hate a 5 PM kickoff. Good luck Falcons!

Watching Gameday it’s unreal to see the Sun Belt being where the MAC used to be. All these folks moving to the South over the last 20 years is fully cementing that area as the CFB hotbed
Yeah that's pretty much it. When I was in college, the Sun Belt was a joke conference. One bowl bid a year to the champion. Might as well be a 1AA. Fast forward to now and each of those teams are basically rosters of kids who the SEC passed on. Kinda concerned about the future of the MAC.
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Re: Marshall -18 at Bowling Green

Post by jpfalcon09 »

MarkL wrote: Sat Sep 17, 2022 10:50 am
Bgsu2016 wrote: Sat Sep 17, 2022 10:06 am Hate a 5 PM kickoff. Good luck Falcons!

Watching Gameday it’s unreal to see the Sun Belt being where the MAC used to be. All these folks moving to the South over the last 20 years is fully cementing that area as the CFB hotbed
Yeah that's pretty much it. When I was in college, the Sun Belt was a joke conference. One bowl bid a year to the champion. Might as well be a 1AA. Fast forward to now and each of those teams are basically rosters of kids who the SEC passed on. Kinda concerned about the future of the MAC.
If things go the way of the super conferences would it make sense for the MAC and SBC to join together? Winner of each league plays each other in a title game? Would maximize playoff potential. MAC needs to be proactive.
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Re: Marshall -18 at Bowling Green

Post by Bgsu2016 »

MarkL wrote: Sat Sep 17, 2022 10:50 am
Bgsu2016 wrote: Sat Sep 17, 2022 10:06 am Hate a 5 PM kickoff. Good luck Falcons!

Watching Gameday it’s unreal to see the Sun Belt being where the MAC used to be. All these folks moving to the South over the last 20 years is fully cementing that area as the CFB hotbed
Yeah that's pretty much it. When I was in college, the Sun Belt was a joke conference. One bowl bid a year to the champion. Might as well be a 1AA. Fast forward to now and each of those teams are basically rosters of kids who the SEC passed on. Kinda concerned about the future of the MAC.
100%, lol they had to play in the New Orleans Bowl. Meanwhile in 2003 we had #11 Miami OH vs #18 Bowling Green for a MAC title. Whoever in this league can get a steady southern pipeline for recruiting going will really establish something great. With ND/MSU/UM/OSU and now Cincy being legit it’s just getting harder and harder to recruit in the Great Lakes
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Re: Marshall -18 at Bowling Green

Post by Schadenfreude »

Falconfreak90 wrote: Fri Sep 16, 2022 10:21 pm I was surprised the line was only BG +16.5. Think back to 1998...BG 2-5, ranked 8-0 Marshall. BG won 34-13. If Loeffler is gonna save his job, this is the week he does. at least that's how I see it.
Well said. This game is looking as tough as that 1998 game. No time like now to shock the world.
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Re: Marshall -18 at Bowling Green

Post by Flipper »

Gotta be more alert than that
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Re: Marshall -18 at Bowling Green

Post by HoopsFan »

Wow! A trick play....
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