Past and Future Opponents (& MAC Talk)

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Schadenfreude
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Re: Past and Future Opponents (& MAC Talk)

Post by Schadenfreude »

I'm glad Eastern Michigan is not on our schedule. They are looking pretty tough after that win at Arizona State last night.
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Re: Past and Future Opponents (& MAC Talk)

Post by Falconwriter »

After watching Bancroft High School against OSU last night, I'm very impressed with their QB. He's extremely shifty and fast, and probably better than any QB in the MAC, especially any duel threat QB. I can't see too many MAC defenses stopping him often.

Getting to watch the last quarter and OT of the BG game was fun. They played with a lot of heart and it was great to see them stun the Herd like that. By the way, the atmosphere at the game (from the TV) looked outstanding. The crowd was into the game and loud. It was nice to see that, and reminded me of how games were when I went to BG ('72-'76).
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Re: Past and Future Opponents (& MAC Talk)

Post by Schadenfreude »

Falconwriter wrote: Sun Sep 18, 2022 10:20 am By the way, the atmosphere at the game (from the TV) looked outstanding. The crowd was into the game and loud.
I agree. It looked and sounded good on television.

The official attendance was 21,158.
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Re: Past and Future Opponents (& MAC Talk)

Post by threestooges »

Falconwriter wrote: Sun Sep 18, 2022 10:20 am After watching Bancroft High School against OSU last night, I'm very impressed with their QB. He's extremely shifty and fast, and probably better than any QB in the MAC, especially any duel threat QB. I can't see too many MAC defenses stopping him often.

Getting to watch the last quarter and OT of the BG game was fun. They played with a lot of heart and it was great to see them stun the Herd like that. By the way, the atmosphere at the game (from the TV) looked outstanding. The crowd was into the game and loud. It was nice to see that, and reminded me of how games were when I went to BG ('72-'76).
Just for giggles, I went to Bancroft High School's message board & scrolled through the OSU game thread. A common theme on that thread was that Finn enters the transfer portal after this season.
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Re: Past and Future Opponents (& MAC Talk)

Post by jpfalcon09 »

MarkL wrote: Sun Sep 18, 2022 8:06 am EMU may have ended Herm Edwards' tenure if the NCAA investigation didn't. And who would have thought going into the season the conference's two best non conf wins would come from ... EMU and Bowling Green?
Sure enough, Herm is out in Tempe.
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Re: Past and Future Opponents (& MAC Talk)

Post by jpfalcon09 »

UCLA (4-0) had no trouble with Colorado
EKU (2-2) blew a 20-3 halftime lead to Austin Peay
Marshall (2-2) laid an egg at Troy
Mississippi State (3-1) beat BGSU
Akron (1-3) lost a hard fought game at Liberty
Buffalo (1-3) drilled EMU in Ypsi
Miami (2-2) beat Northwestern with a late field goal
CMU (1-3) kept it close for a half in State College
WMU (1-3) was drilled in San Jose
Kent State (1-3) impressed against Georgia
Toledo (2-2) lost an ugly game in San Diego
Ohio (2-2) won a shootout vs. Fordham
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Re: Past and Future Opponents (& MAC Talk)

Post by jpfalcon09 »

I ran some of my data today to get expected point spreads for the reason of the season, the numbers are fascinating.

BG (-13) at Akron
BG (+3) vs Buffalo
BG (-3.5) vs. Miami (OH)
BG at CMU (PK)
BG (-7) vs. WMU
BG vs. Kent State (PK)
BG (+3) at Toledo
BG (-3) at Ohio

Basically every game outside of Akron is expected to be within one score. Curious to see how this data shifts week to week.
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Re: Past and Future Opponents (& MAC Talk)

Post by Flipper »

jpfalcon09 wrote: Sun Sep 18, 2022 5:28 pm
MarkL wrote: Sun Sep 18, 2022 8:06 am EMU may have ended Herm Edwards' tenure if the NCAA investigation didn't. And who would have thought going into the season the conference's two best non conf wins would come from ... EMU and Bowling Green?
Sure enough, Herm is out in Tempe.
I heard a rumor that people on staff were so anxious to be rid of Edwards that they leaked info on the game plan to EMU
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Re: Past and Future Opponents (& MAC Talk)

Post by guest44 »

Central Michigan will be -7 or more in a few weeks. Kent St. will also be favored in BG. Your numbers have BG a dog to Buffalo and favored vs. Miami(OH)? I would say those will be flip flopped. BG slight favorite over Buffalo, dog to Miami. BG will be at least a touchdown dog probably much more to Toledo, unless Finn is out.
jpfalcon09 wrote: Tue Sep 27, 2022 3:20 pm I ran some of my data today to get expected point spreads for the reason of the season, the numbers are fascinating.

BG (-13) at Akron
BG (+3) vs Buffalo
BG (-3.5) vs. Miami (OH)
BG at CMU (PK)
BG (-7) vs. WMU
BG vs. Kent State (PK)
BG (+3) at Toledo
BG (-3) at Ohio

Basically every game outside of Akron is expected to be within one score. Curious to see how this data shifts week to week.
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Re: Past and Future Opponents (& MAC Talk)

Post by jpfalcon09 »

guest44 wrote: Tue Sep 27, 2022 3:36 pm Central Michigan will be -7 or more in a few weeks. Kent St. will also be favored in BG. Your numbers have BG a dog to Buffalo and favored vs. Miami(OH)? I would say those will be flip flopped. BG slight favorite over Buffalo, dog to Miami. BG will be at least a touchdown dog probably much more to Toledo, unless Finn is out.
jpfalcon09 wrote: Tue Sep 27, 2022 3:20 pm I ran some of my data today to get expected point spreads for the reason of the season, the numbers are fascinating.

BG (-13) at Akron
BG (+3) vs Buffalo
BG (-3.5) vs. Miami (OH)
BG at CMU (PK)
BG (-7) vs. WMU
BG vs. Kent State (PK)
BG (+3) at Toledo
BG (-3) at Ohio

Basically every game outside of Akron is expected to be within one score. Curious to see how this data shifts week to week.
Buffalo's offensive numbers vs. EMU scored well in my model and pushed them to be a favorite. Vice versa with Miami with Gabbert being out. Keep in mind a lot of this data will be clearer after this week and teams play each other. A bit is skewed from non-conference games where some teams performed pretty poorly.
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Re: Past and Future Opponents (& MAC Talk)

Post by guest44 »

That makes sense. A week or two of conference play should shake out much of this.
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Re: Past and Future Opponents (& MAC Talk)

Post by jpfalcon09 »

UCLA beat #15 Washington 40-32 in the Rose Bowl.
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Re: Past and Future Opponents (& MAC Talk)

Post by mbenecke »

jpfalcon09 wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 8:56 am UCLA beat #15 Washington 40-32 in the Rose Bowl.
They were actually kinda blowing them out, too. They were up 33-10 in the third quarter before a late Washington rally made the score closer than it really was.

UCLA is 5-0.
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Re: Past and Future Opponents (& MAC Talk)

Post by kdog27 »

Yes they look better than I thought they were.
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Re: Past and Future Opponents (& MAC Talk)

Post by jpfalcon09 »

Every conference game outside of CMU/Toledo decided by one possession. Every week is going to be a battle.
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