Beat Miami

[jpfalcon09]

ESPN FPI’s % chance that BG wins each of their remaining football games:

vs. Miami - 33.0%
@ CMU - 18.3%
vs. WMU - 41.0%
vs. Kent State - 24.3%
@ Toledo - 8.2%
@ Ohio - 28.8%

Not great.

My model is this:

Miami - 24%
CMU - 23%
WMU - 74%
Kent State - 24%
Toledo - 4%
Ohio - 21%

[jpfalcon09]

[mbenecke]

I'd be thrilled with the result above because it means we at least competed. Sadly, I don't expect that to be the case this weekend.

[Class of 61]

In answer to the tailgate question, Joyce and I were hoping to tailgate since it’s the last home day game. Problem is even leaving at 8am gets us to BG at 10 if we’re lucky… these noon games are killers for tailgate.
I was here for 1st game ( EKU) but no one else was. Missed HC game due to wife’s illness, missed UB due to MY illness. And now it’s final home Sat. Game.

[Flipper]

#4 Michigan has become the defacto 12pm game for Fox...the tailgating culture up there is much bigger than BG's...that can't be popular with them

[Flipper]

ESPN FPI’s % chance that BG wins each of their remaining football games:

vs. Miami - 33.0%
@ CMU - 18.3%
vs. WMU - 41.0%
vs. Kent State - 24.3%
@ Toledo - 8.2%
@ Ohio - 28.8%

Not great.

My model is this:


Miami - 24%
CMU - 23%
WMU - 74%
Kent State - 24%
Toledo - 4%
Ohio - 21%

That WMU % seems awfully optimistic

[pdt1081]

#4 Michigan has become the defacto 12pm game for Fox...the tailgating culture up there is much bigger than BG's...that can't be popular with them

I was there once in college for the OSU game. Time didn't matter. We didn't sleep the night before. Hardest part was finding the sober driver to get us to the golf course.

[jpfalcon09]

ESPN FPI’s % chance that BG wins each of their remaining football games:

vs. Miami - 33.0%
@ CMU - 18.3%
vs. WMU - 41.0%
vs. Kent State - 24.3%
@ Toledo - 8.2%
@ Ohio - 28.8%

Not great.

My model is this:


Miami - 24%
CMU - 23%
WMU - 74%
Kent State - 24%
Toledo - 4%
Ohio - 21%

That WMU % seems awfully optimistic

Broncos rank worse in my metrics than BG does. That's what is driving that number. BG would land as a touchdown favorite.

[Schadenfreude]

#4 Michigan has become the defacto 12pm game for Fox...the tailgating culture up there is much bigger than BG's...that can't be popular with them

I was there once in college for the OSU game. Time didn't matter. We didn't sleep the night before. Hardest part was finding the sober driver to get us to the golf course.

Lights were installed at Michigan Stadium in 2010, I believe. Before then, I imagine they had quite a few noon kickoffs, especially as the days grew shorter. (Unless ABC made them get temporary lights for some November games?)

Looking at their 2009 schedule:

-- 3:30 p.m. kickoff on Sept. 12 versus Notre Dame
-- 3:30 p.m. kickoff on Sept. 19 versus Eastern Michigan
-- noon kickoff on Sept. 26 versus Indiana
-- noon kickoff on Oct. 17 versus Delaware State
-- 3:30 p.m. kickoff on Oct. 24 versus Penn State
-- noon kickoff on Oct. 31 versus Purdue
-- noon kickoff on Nov. 21 versus Ohio State

(Shaking my head at Michigan scheduling Delaware State.)

[Falconfreak90]

Knowing how bizarre this conference can be...it wouldn't shock me a bit if we won Saturday. Don't think we will...Miami's QB will evade our blitzes and run for 100+ yds, but ....you never know

I was going to predict the same possibility. I have been conditioned to not carry the glow of a win, swagger moving forward or the guarantee of a loss (other than a power 5 game). I had a feeling we would lose to Buffalo….. ONLY because the team surveyed who had passports (in the event we made the Bahama bowl).

I actually feel good about Miami…. For no logical reason whatsoever.

"ONLY because the team surveyed who had passports (in the event we made the Bahama bowl)". Is this true? LOL! Or like Jalen Burton saying "We feel we have the best defense in the MAC" after beating Akron by 3...and giving up almost 30 points.

And yet, I have a strange feeling about Miami as well. Can't put my finger on anything in particular.

[Schadenfreude]

After Eastern Kentucky most of us assumed the season was over, and then this team went out and beat Marshall. So, who knows?

Buffalo definitely outplayed Bowling Green last weekend -- it was an awful display -- but those looking for some hope could focus on the fact that the Falcons moved the ball at times and that quite a few points were lost for our side because of fluky events such as fumbles and the fake field goal attempt deep in the red zone.

I imagine checking for passports in October is pretty much a standard procedure in the MAC at this point and not a prediction.

I do think this team probably has a couple of more wins in it. But six is asking an awful lot at this point.

[Flipper]

Six is impossible at this point...four seems unlikely

[roguewarrior]

Knowing how bizarre this conference can be...it wouldn't shock me a bit if we won Saturday. Don't think we will...Miami's QB will evade our blitzes and run for 100+ yds, but ....you never know

I was going to predict the same possibility. I have been conditioned to not carry the glow of a win, swagger moving forward or the guarantee of a loss (other than a power 5 game). I had a feeling we would lose to Buffalo….. ONLY because the team surveyed who had passports (in the event we made the Bahama bowl).

I actually feel good about Miami…. For no logical reason whatsoever.

"ONLY because the team surveyed who had passports (in the event we made the Bahama bowl)". Is this true? LOL! Or like Jalen Burton saying "We feel we have the best defense in the MAC" after beating Akron by 3...and giving up almost 30 points.

And yet, I have a strange feeling about Miami as well. Can't put my finger on anything in particular.

To be clear, they were NOT predicting or implying they are bound for the Bahama Bowl. They did the same thing last year.

I laugh because What good is asking now? Probably takes 12 weeks to get one nowadays. If it were me, that would be a project for someone to handle every year in spring…. Help kids get a passport in place. Every future college grad should have one…. And at least lately the Bahama Bowl is a reachable destination annually .

[Flipper]

Scot could have had eight or nine passports this year...but that wouldn't be doing things the Clawson way

[Schadenfreude]

Six is impossible at this point...four seems unlikely

I'm certainly not predicting six, but the MAC is kind of a mess right now. Ohio barely beat Fordham. We'll see.