2022 Bowl Game

[Flipper]

I think it was Brandon who said bowl practices were most valuable because it gave them an opportunity to actually coach and develop players like they do spring and fall because you have a longer window and one team to prepare for.

As tired as we looked against OU...the time off to get ready for finals and rest up is probably more useful.

I have a hunch that SL is at best 50/50 to return....

[Schadenfreude]

Boca Raton Bowl or Boise seem to be where the team thinks they may end up.

Thanks for the insight. Makes sense.

[hammb]

I have a hunch that SL is at best 50/50 to return....

We have given him 4 yrs of excuses about how bad a situation he inherited. This could be seen as a perfect opportunity to go find a coach that doesn't need [or get] that excuse.

[kdog27]

I think preseason I said I’d be okay if they went 6-6 and were competitive in their losses. I’ll excuse the sec and and pac 12 blowouts. Looking like they don’t belong on the field with 3 Mac East opponents in year 4 is very discouraging. I don’t see a high ceiling under the current leadership.

[jpfalcon09]

I think it was Brandon who said bowl practices were most valuable because it gave them an opportunity to actually coach and develop players like they do spring and fall because you have a longer window and one team to prepare for.

As tired as we looked against OU...the time off to get ready for finals and rest up is probably more useful.

I have a hunch that SL is at best 50/50 to return....

I'd be shocked if Scot isn't back next year and it would likely be his decision and not the school's. But if so why drag it out. Already have a school in your conference that is moving on. Toledo could be next on that list. Would be malpractice to allow other programs within your conference to get first crack at a replacement.

[roguewarrior]

Having seen every snap in person since they arrived and having a thorough grasp of both the good and bad behind the scenes, I would move on now if “The guy”, whomever that may be, is available. There will be an exodus soon, and there are no notable HS recruits committed you could lose. This season IS the ceiling, IMO.

[jpfalcon09]

Having seen every snap in person since they arrived and having a thorough grasp of both the good and bad behind the scenes, I would move on now if “The guy”, whomever that may be, is available. There will be an exodus soon, and there are no notable HS recruits committed you could lose. This season IS the ceiling, IMO.

Agree this is the ceiling. Unless there's a QB coming in from the portal this spring, I don't see Orth or Gunther having the skill set to proficiently run the offense. Bainbridge probably isn't going to be ready either (although I think he has more raw talent than the other two). A regression seems likely.

[hammb]

Having seen every snap in person since they arrived and having a thorough grasp of both the good and bad behind the scenes, I would move on now if “The guy”, whomever that may be, is available. There will be an exodus soon, and there are no notable HS recruits committed you could lose. This season IS the ceiling, IMO.

Agree this is the ceiling. Unless there's a QB coming in from the portal this spring, I don't see Orth or Gunther having the skill set to proficiently run the offense. Bainbridge probably isn't going to be ready either (although I think he has more raw talent than the other two). A regression seems likely.

I'll 3rd that I think this is the ceiling and next year is poised for a big step backwards with no QB ready to play even to McDonald's level.

I know you're a gambler/data guy. What would your model project our record to be even if we ran it all back (obviously not possible). I have to think our negative conference point differential would project us to being 4-8 or worse even if we could bring everything back, simply due to some means regression. I don't follow college football close enough to know, but at the NFL level a defense that gets as many turnovers as we have this year will often see serious means regression as well the following season. Turnover production is simply difficult to repeat at that level. Maybe given talent differential, it's more repeatable at this level but still seems like a regression could hit hard. Hell we won one game not just because we forced a bunch of turnovers but the fact that a fumbling player also kicked the ball out of the endzone...that stuff is tough to count on.

[Flipper]

The issue that concerns me is the talk of abusive conduct by assistants, lack of harmony and drug use. Particularly the conduct of the assistants. If the new AD hears enough of that....he may decide a reset is in order sooner rather than later

[jpfalcon09]

Having seen every snap in person since they arrived and having a thorough grasp of both the good and bad behind the scenes, I would move on now if “The guy”, whomever that may be, is available. There will be an exodus soon, and there are no notable HS recruits committed you could lose. This season IS the ceiling, IMO.

Agree this is the ceiling. Unless there's a QB coming in from the portal this spring, I don't see Orth or Gunther having the skill set to proficiently run the offense. Bainbridge probably isn't going to be ready either (although I think he has more raw talent than the other two). A regression seems likely.

I'll 3rd that I think this is the ceiling and next year is poised for a big step backwards with no QB ready to play even to McDonald's level.

I know you're a gambler/data guy. What would your model project our record to be even if we ran it all back (obviously not possible). I have to think our negative conference point differential would project us to being 4-8 or worse even if we could bring everything back, simply due to some means regression. I don't follow college football close enough to know, but at the NFL level a defense that gets as many turnovers as we have this year will often see serious means regression as well the following season. Turnover production is simply difficult to repeat at that level. Maybe given talent differential, it's more repeatable at this level but still seems like a regression could hit hard. Hell we won one game not just because we forced a bunch of turnovers but the fact that a fumbling player also kicked the ball out of the endzone...that stuff is tough to count on.

My model recalculates expected spreads after every week. BG would be favored in two games (WMU, Miami OH) if we took the end of year data and ran back to the start of the season. This season was a combination of a lot of luck and good fortune (positive turnover margin, facing several backup QBs, the MAC being hot garbage, even catching Marshall probably hungover from their ND win).

Long story short if everything is even there's probably a 5% chance BG gets to six wins. Obviously that's not how sports work given injuries, fluctuations in performances, etc. But you get the idea. Six wins this year was incredibly lucky and would have been extremely difficult to repeat.

[jpfalcon09]

Brett McMurphy has BG playing Georgia Southern in the Quick Lane Bowl at Ford Field.

[kdog27]

His models are pretty good because he kicked our ass in the pick contest

[jpfalcon09]

New Mexico State and Rice both were granted waivers today for bowl eligibility. If Buffalo beats Akron tomorrow they will get the final open spot. If they lose, it will go to UNLV.

[Globetrotter]

Having seen every snap in person since they arrived and having a thorough grasp of both the good and bad behind the scenes, I would move on now if “The guy”, whomever that may be, is available. There will be an exodus soon, and there are no notable HS recruits committed you could lose. This season IS the ceiling, IMO.

Agree this is the ceiling. Unless there's a QB coming in from the portal this spring, I don't see Orth or Gunther having the skill set to proficiently run the offense. Bainbridge probably isn't going to be ready either (although I think he has more raw talent than the other two). A regression seems likely.

I'll 3rd that I think this is the ceiling and next year is poised for a big step backwards with no QB ready to play even to McDonald's level.

I know you're a gambler/data guy. What would your model project our record to be even if we ran it all back (obviously not possible). I have to think our negative conference point differential would project us to being 4-8 or worse even if we could bring everything back, simply due to some means regression. I don't follow college football close enough to know, but at the NFL level a defense that gets as many turnovers as we have this year will often see serious means regression as well the following season. Turnover production is simply difficult to repeat at that level. Maybe given talent differential, it's more repeatable at this level but still seems like a regression could hit hard. Hell we won one game not just because we forced a bunch of turnovers but the fact that a fumbling player also kicked the ball out of the endzone...that stuff is tough to count on.

I watched more BG football this year than the last 4 combined. I think that you are correct in a way but ignoring how college football works now. WKU took an entire Juco team including coordinator and found some immediate success. The OL is improved. We have weapons all over the offense, what if McDonald (And the need to tie ourselves to him) was the problem and the solution comes from a new QB who forces things for Loeffler. Would I bet on it....no way. But I wouldn't be at all surprised if this team was better next year.

[Flipper]

The OL was horrible against better competition....we lose the center that evryone credited with what improvement was there. We lose a ton of talent on D...not including guys who are listed as sr's but have their Covid year left...no guarantee all of them will come back.. Our coach runs an offense that scored a total of 43 points in home conference games this year. He was hired with the notion that he was a QB whisperer, but the guy he coached for several years ( I lost count) didn't show enough to be all conference...and he's threatening to bring him back (somehow).

Next year will be worse