State of the MAC

[fanatic13]

Most or all of us know the Mac is bottom of the barrel these days in the fbs. Since we're around the halfway point here's where each mac team ranks in espn fpi and how the Mac compares to other g5 conferences. I dislike espn fpi but it's easy to access and only has fbs. Spoiler the Mac is bad and total of 133 teams

Toledo 69
Miami 72
Ohio 82
Niu 92
Bg 104
Cmu 111
Buffalo 116
Wmu 117
Emu 119
Ball 126
Akron 131
Kent 132


Conference average
Mac 105.92
American 89.07
Cusa 105.56
Mwc 91.58
Sun 87.79

Weird to think that we're the fifth best team in the conference but I assume winning by a good amount at georgia tech is weighing a lot of positive. Getting three wins should be easy with the schedule but we know how this team is week to week

Sad to see the Mac is the worst conference even with cusa having 3 transitioning teams and filler teams. Liberty is 58 so that props them up a bit but they don't have as many terrible teams in the Mac. Unfortunately this isn't new and the Mac for at least a decade has had a handful of awful teams each season. We're so far off the other three mid major conferences

Bg has a 73.8% chance to get 6 wins and is 28th in SOS this season

[Bgsu2016]

Most or all of us know the Mac is bottom of the barrel these days in the fbs. Since we're around the halfway point here's where each mac team ranks in espn fpi and how the Mac compares to other g5 conferences. I dislike espn fpi but it's easy to access and only has fbs. Spoiler the Mac is bad and total of 133 teams

Toledo 69
Miami 72
Ohio 82
Niu 92
Bg 104
Cmu 111
Buffalo 116
Wmu 117
Emu 119
Ball 126
Akron 131
Kent 132


Conference average
Mac 105.92
American 89.07
Cusa 105.56
Mwc 91.58
Sun 87.79

Weird to think that we're the fifth best team in the conference but I assume winning by a good amount at georgia tech is weighing a lot of positive. Getting three wins should be easy with the schedule but we know how this team is week to week

Sad to see the Mac is the worst conference even with cusa having 3 transitioning teams and filler teams. Liberty is 58 so that props them up a bit but they don't have as many terrible teams in the Mac. Unfortunately this isn't new and the Mac for at least a decade has had a handful of awful teams each season. We're so far off the other three mid major conferences

Bg has a 73.8% chance to get 6 wins and is 28th in SOS this season

It’s indicative of the Midwest as a whole. As more and more people move to America’s Sunbelt, it’ll be harder and harder to recruit for all these schools. There’s a reason the SEC’s explosion coincided with the explosion of the South. In 1980 the Charlotte metro area was about as big as Toledo, now it has 500,000 more than Cincy and 2.1 Million more than Toledo

[hammb]

Most or all of us know the Mac is bottom of the barrel these days in the fbs. Since we're around the halfway point here's where each mac team ranks in espn fpi and how the Mac compares to other g5 conferences. I dislike espn fpi but it's easy to access and only has fbs. Spoiler the Mac is bad and total of 133 teams

Toledo 69
Miami 72
Ohio 82
Niu 92
Bg 104
Cmu 111
Buffalo 116
Wmu 117
Emu 119
Ball 126
Akron 131
Kent 132


Conference average
Mac 105.92
American 89.07
Cusa 105.56
Mwc 91.58
Sun 87.79

Weird to think that we're the fifth best team in the conference but I assume winning by a good amount at georgia tech is weighing a lot of positive. Getting three wins should be easy with the schedule but we know how this team is week to week

Sad to see the Mac is the worst conference even with cusa having 3 transitioning teams and filler teams. Liberty is 58 so that props them up a bit but they don't have as many terrible teams in the Mac. Unfortunately this isn't new and the Mac for at least a decade has had a handful of awful teams each season. We're so far off the other three mid major conferences

Bg has a 73.8% chance to get 6 wins and is 28th in SOS this season

It’s indicative of the Midwest as a whole. As more and more people move to America’s Sunbelt, it’ll be harder and harder to recruit for all these schools. There’s a reason the SEC’s explosion coincided with the explosion of the South. In 1980 the Charlotte metro area was about as big as Toledo, now it has 500,000 more than Cincy and 2.1 Million more than Toledo

Compound those issues by HS football participation going down and down over the past decade or so as well. Take population areas that have already lost raw numbers, then decrease the percentage of them that are playing football in HS, AND add teams (wasn't that long ago FBS was like 115 teams)...the talent pool has never been thinner and the MAC is getting the scraps. Then the new transfer rules (which I generally favor) ensure that if any of those scraps actually turn out to be a piece of prime rib, they can move on to greener pastures.

We went to the Anthony Wayne/Start game this year, expecting a decent matchup against a Toledo City League school. Start has like 1300 students. There weren't 75 kids on the football team...it was BAD, a total blood bath. By the end of the first quarter I was feeling really bad for those kids. I left there thinking it was one of the worst HS football teams I'd ever seen. Well they're 4-1 in 2nd place of the City League.

The state of HS football is a predictor to the state of college football, at least for MAC type schools.

[jpfalcon09]

SP+ rankings are even worse when you account for FCS & D2-D3 schools:

Toledo 70
Miami OH 83
Ohio 85
NIU 109
Buffalo 135
EMU 139
BGSU 142
CMU 150
Akron 156
WMU 158
Ball State 165
Kent State 179

Two-thirds of the MAC schools are essentially performing at an FCS or lower level. UMass is the worst FBS program at 180. Best FCS program is South Dakota State at 29, best D2 program is Ferris State at 175, for some context.

[jpfalcon09]

Most or all of us know the Mac is bottom of the barrel these days in the fbs. Since we're around the halfway point here's where each mac team ranks in espn fpi and how the Mac compares to other g5 conferences. I dislike espn fpi but it's easy to access and only has fbs. Spoiler the Mac is bad and total of 133 teams

Toledo 69
Miami 72
Ohio 82
Niu 92
Bg 104
Cmu 111
Buffalo 116
Wmu 117
Emu 119
Ball 126
Akron 131
Kent 132


Conference average
Mac 105.92
American 89.07
Cusa 105.56
Mwc 91.58
Sun 87.79

Weird to think that we're the fifth best team in the conference but I assume winning by a good amount at georgia tech is weighing a lot of positive. Getting three wins should be easy with the schedule but we know how this team is week to week

Sad to see the Mac is the worst conference even with cusa having 3 transitioning teams and filler teams. Liberty is 58 so that props them up a bit but they don't have as many terrible teams in the Mac. Unfortunately this isn't new and the Mac for at least a decade has had a handful of awful teams each season. We're so far off the other three mid major conferences

Bg has a 73.8% chance to get 6 wins and is 28th in SOS this season

It’s indicative of the Midwest as a whole. As more and more people move to America’s Sunbelt, it’ll be harder and harder to recruit for all these schools. There’s a reason the SEC’s explosion coincided with the explosion of the South. In 1980 the Charlotte metro area was about as big as Toledo, now it has 500,000 more than Cincy and 2.1 Million more than Toledo

Compound those issues by HS football participation going down and down over the past decade or so as well. Take population areas that have already lost raw numbers, then decrease the percentage of them that are playing football in HS, AND add teams (wasn't that long ago FBS was like 115 teams)...the talent pool has never been thinner and the MAC is getting the scraps. Then the new transfer rules (which I generally favor) ensure that if any of those scraps actually turn out to be a piece of prime rib, they can move on to greener pastures.

We went to the Anthony Wayne/Start game this year, expecting a decent matchup against a Toledo City League school. Start has like 1300 students. There weren't 75 kids on the football team...it was BAD, a total blood bath. By the end of the first quarter I was feeling really bad for those kids. I left there thinking it was one of the worst HS football teams I'd ever seen. Well they're 4-1 in 2nd place of the City League.

The state of HS football is a predictor to the state of college football, at least for MAC type schools.

The private schools in Toledo are poaching most of the talent away from the public schools, and that's starting from recruiting kids in 5th/6th grade. The City League itself is a joke. Woodward has the state's longest winless streak at 31 games. They've scored a total of 12 points in nine games this year. To Start's credit, they are in line to make the state playoffs if they win this week against Lima Senior, or get some help if they lose.

Most recent concrete data I could find was from 2019. Ohio saw a 3,000 participant reduction in 11-man football from 2018. Willing to bet that number got worse after covid when many seasons were reduced or canceled altogether, and many districts cut back on funding for sports just to stay afloat. The other angle is millennial parents refusing to allow their kids to play football given the health risks.

Believe there was a statistic shown on the Toledo broadcast this past weekend where they have 14 kids from Florida on their roster.

[Flipper]

In NW Ohio and SE Michigan schools like Whitmer get kids from the public schools. Saline does the same thing up by Ann Arbor...but the Ann Arbor public schools are very nice and well funded, so they keep a lot of quality kids

[TalonsUpPuckDown]

Most or all of us know the Mac is bottom of the barrel these days in the fbs. Since we're around the halfway point here's where each mac team ranks in espn fpi and how the Mac compares to other g5 conferences. I dislike espn fpi but it's easy to access and only has fbs. Spoiler the Mac is bad and total of 133 teams

Toledo 69
Miami 72
Ohio 82
Niu 92
Bg 104
Cmu 111
Buffalo 116
Wmu 117
Emu 119
Ball 126
Akron 131
Kent 132


Conference average
Mac 105.92
American 89.07
Cusa 105.56
Mwc 91.58
Sun 87.79

Weird to think that we're the fifth best team in the conference but I assume winning by a good amount at georgia tech is weighing a lot of positive. Getting three wins should be easy with the schedule but we know how this team is week to week

Sad to see the Mac is the worst conference even with cusa having 3 transitioning teams and filler teams. Liberty is 58 so that props them up a bit but they don't have as many terrible teams in the Mac. Unfortunately this isn't new and the Mac for at least a decade has had a handful of awful teams each season. We're so far off the other three mid major conferences

Bg has a 73.8% chance to get 6 wins and is 28th in SOS this season

It’s indicative of the Midwest as a whole. As more and more people move to America’s Sunbelt, it’ll be harder and harder to recruit for all these schools. There’s a reason the SEC’s explosion coincided with the explosion of the South. In 1980 the Charlotte metro area was about as big as Toledo, now it has 500,000 more than Cincy and 2.1 Million more than Toledo

Compound those issues by HS football participation going down and down over the past decade or so as well. Take population areas that have already lost raw numbers, then decrease the percentage of them that are playing football in HS, AND add teams (wasn't that long ago FBS was like 115 teams)...the talent pool has never been thinner and the MAC is getting the scraps. Then the new transfer rules (which I generally favor) ensure that if any of those scraps actually turn out to be a piece of prime rib, they can move on to greener pastures.

We went to the Anthony Wayne/Start game this year, expecting a decent matchup against a Toledo City League school. Start has like 1300 students. There weren't 75 kids on the football team...it was BAD, a total blood bath. By the end of the first quarter I was feeling really bad for those kids. I left there thinking it was one of the worst HS football teams I'd ever seen. Well they're 4-1 in 2nd place of the City League.

The state of HS football is a predictor to the state of college football, at least for MAC type schools.

The private schools in Toledo are poaching most of the talent away from the public schools, and that's starting from recruiting kids in 5th/6th grade. The City League itself is a joke. Woodward has the state's longest winless streak at 31 games. They've scored a total of 12 points in nine games this year. To Start's credit, they are in line to make the state playoffs if they win this week against Lima Senior, or get some help if they lose.

Most recent concrete data I could find was from 2019. Ohio saw a 3,000 participant reduction in 11-man football from 2018. Willing to bet that number got worse after covid when many seasons were reduced or canceled altogether, and many districts cut back on funding for sports just to stay afloat. The other angle is millennial parents refusing to allow their kids to play football given the health risks.

Believe there was a statistic shown on the Toledo broadcast this past weekend where they have 14 kids from Florida on their roster.

And Central is now in a metro Detroit-based league.

Whitmer is the only* public school that recruits the Toledo public schools but not with the same success as Central or St. Francis. Go Panthers! (Whitmer alum here).

*Not sure if Perrysburg is in that category?

[jpfalcon09]

Most or all of us know the Mac is bottom of the barrel these days in the fbs. Since we're around the halfway point here's where each mac team ranks in espn fpi and how the Mac compares to other g5 conferences. I dislike espn fpi but it's easy to access and only has fbs. Spoiler the Mac is bad and total of 133 teams

Toledo 69
Miami 72
Ohio 82
Niu 92
Bg 104
Cmu 111
Buffalo 116
Wmu 117
Emu 119
Ball 126
Akron 131
Kent 132


Conference average
Mac 105.92
American 89.07
Cusa 105.56
Mwc 91.58
Sun 87.79

Weird to think that we're the fifth best team in the conference but I assume winning by a good amount at georgia tech is weighing a lot of positive. Getting three wins should be easy with the schedule but we know how this team is week to week

Sad to see the Mac is the worst conference even with cusa having 3 transitioning teams and filler teams. Liberty is 58 so that props them up a bit but they don't have as many terrible teams in the Mac. Unfortunately this isn't new and the Mac for at least a decade has had a handful of awful teams each season. We're so far off the other three mid major conferences

Bg has a 73.8% chance to get 6 wins and is 28th in SOS this season

It’s indicative of the Midwest as a whole. As more and more people move to America’s Sunbelt, it’ll be harder and harder to recruit for all these schools. There’s a reason the SEC’s explosion coincided with the explosion of the South. In 1980 the Charlotte metro area was about as big as Toledo, now it has 500,000 more than Cincy and 2.1 Million more than Toledo

Compound those issues by HS football participation going down and down over the past decade or so as well. Take population areas that have already lost raw numbers, then decrease the percentage of them that are playing football in HS, AND add teams (wasn't that long ago FBS was like 115 teams)...the talent pool has never been thinner and the MAC is getting the scraps. Then the new transfer rules (which I generally favor) ensure that if any of those scraps actually turn out to be a piece of prime rib, they can move on to greener pastures.

We went to the Anthony Wayne/Start game this year, expecting a decent matchup against a Toledo City League school. Start has like 1300 students. There weren't 75 kids on the football team...it was BAD, a total blood bath. By the end of the first quarter I was feeling really bad for those kids. I left there thinking it was one of the worst HS football teams I'd ever seen. Well they're 4-1 in 2nd place of the City League.

The state of HS football is a predictor to the state of college football, at least for MAC type schools.

The private schools in Toledo are poaching most of the talent away from the public schools, and that's starting from recruiting kids in 5th/6th grade. The City League itself is a joke. Woodward has the state's longest winless streak at 31 games. They've scored a total of 12 points in nine games this year. To Start's credit, they are in line to make the state playoffs if they win this week against Lima Senior, or get some help if they lose.

Most recent concrete data I could find was from 2019. Ohio saw a 3,000 participant reduction in 11-man football from 2018. Willing to bet that number got worse after covid when many seasons were reduced or canceled altogether, and many districts cut back on funding for sports just to stay afloat. The other angle is millennial parents refusing to allow their kids to play football given the health risks.

Believe there was a statistic shown on the Toledo broadcast this past weekend where they have 14 kids from Florida on their roster.

And Central is now in a metro Detroit-based league.

Whitmer is the only* public school that recruits the Toledo public schools but not with the same success as Central or St. Francis. Go Panthers! (Whitmer alum here).

*Not sure if Perrysburg is in that category?

St. Francis is a dumpster fire ever since Cromwell retired. Whitmer had been known to pull a few fast ones in recent history with fudging addresses for kids technically outside the district, but had a relative living in the area. I think that mostly has come to an end. Don't believe Perrysburg recruits. Them and AW have good youth programs and are able to keep most of their talented kids in-house. The rest of those suburban schools (Clay, Springfield, among others) not so much.

[hammb]

Can't speak to the other area schools, but AW doesn't have open enrollment, although I'm sure they wouldn't be against pulling some shenanigans to get talent from Otsego/Springfield, if they wanted to.

My kid has less than zero interest in American Football, so my experience is all with Soccer and baseball. Next year it'll be basketball, but they don't start that until 3rd grade (so he's been playing YMCA basketball for 5 yrs). The Anthony Wayne Youth foundation is a pretty good youth sports organization for sure, but each sport has its own leadership and in my experience thus far the individual sports have a lot of difference in how well run they are. Haven't been impressed with the baseball at all, but soccer is very well run. This year he's doing AW United travel soccer and it's run/organized well, the coaching situation has been a bit underwhelming for the price paid.

I know a few of the guys that work with the youth football, tackle especially and they probably do a good job with the program. AW also starts tackle younger than most (3rd grade), so that probably helps as well. I know Whitmer area has a really extensive youth football program as well, and wouldn't be surprised if it pulls in kids outside of their district that results in kids playing across district lines at HS level.

It's worth noting that the appearance in Toledo area, especially, is that we're building the same socioeconomic wall around football as traditional elitist sports like Golf has had....and that is FAR from conducive to keeping the sport healthy. My wife, for instance, wants nothing to do with our kid playing football, and I'm sure she's not alone. Throw that in with putting up an essential paywall to development/access and it's just a bad mix. AW, Pburg, Whitmer, and Sylvania shouldn't be the only places succeeding in football around here. And of course, Central basically handpicking their roster from everybody within Toledo proper (and apparently beyond).

[BGFalconfromCincy]

Whitmer did recently move to open enrollment, believe it is there second year with it. Just an FYI for anyone who didn't know that

[Flipper]

I've always thought the Sun Belt or a similar configuration of southern schools would overtake us. I think we're at that point now

[pdt1081]

Whitmer did recently move to open enrollment, believe it is there second year with it. Just an FYI for anyone who didn't know that

There are sports rules involving open enrollment, similar to what college was before the Era of the transfer portal.

[Flipper]

Michigan has school of choice...theres considerably more freedom of movement...so long as tne District you're leaving hasn't suffered to much attrition

[jpfalcon09]

Unrelated to the thread but Miami looks to have lost Brett Gabbert for the season.

[Flipper]

Even without Gabbert..Miami thumps OU in Athens to take control of the East..