2024 Expectations

[BillyLP]

I know this can all shift from week to week and month to month, but with the first batch of transfers announced, I think we already have a pretty good idea of what our defense and offense will look like heading into next season. We also have Loeffler heading into Year 6 in what is pretty clearly a make or break year, either for his contract here, or for his head coaching opportunities elsewhere. His records have been:

2019 - 3-9 (2-6)
2020 - 0-5 (0-5)
2021 - 4-8 (2-6)
2022 - 6-7 (5-3)
2023 - 7-6 (5-3)

It's been slow and painful, but it's hard to say he hasn't improved the program since his arrival. That said, DVDM doesn't seem too keen on being stagnant, so I think there will need to be contiuous improvement to keep his job and/or get another extension. Our OOC next year is Fordham, Penn State, Texas A&M, and Old Dominion. PSU and A&M aren't Georgia Tech or Minnesota, so I think the chances to pull off an upset of that magnitude are pretty slim, so I would think 2-2 in OOC is reasonable for expectations. This means the improvement will need to come from the MAC side of things, which is what we all really care about anyway. Putting myself in DVDM's shoes, I tend to think his tiers look something like this (not including potential MAC Championship or bowl games):

10+ wins: Loeffler is gone to a bigger job
8-9 wins: Loeffler gets a healthy extension
6-7 wins: Loeffler isn't fired, but coaches his final year on the contract w/o extension (worst case scenario, in my opinion)
5 or less: Loeffler is fired

Personally, I think anything less than 8 wins in unacceptable in year 6 and should result in us moving on, but unless we have a new multi-millionaire booster who really carries weight, I can't see us making that move if he ends the season in a bowl game.

I believe we'll go 8-4 (6-2), but I think we need to go 9-3 (7-1) to make the MAC Championship. The talent and practice coaching is definitely here to be MAC champions, but I'm just not sure the gameday coaching is good enough.

TLDR; I expect us to go 8-4 and finish top 4 in the MAC in 2024 and I'll be disappointed with anything less.

[jpfalcon09]

Need to see how the MAC schedule breaks for this year with the new format before I give my expectation. Obviously we're seeing Toledo & NIU, but if BG can avoid Miami & Ohio they have a real good shot at going 7-1 or even running the table in conference play.

[mbenecke]

Agree with jp. If we miss the Ohio/Miami pod, we might have a chance to win more than we think. Gonna have to see how the MAC schedule rotation rolls out.

But I tend to agree that we need to find a way to be even better and compete for a MAC title, with this roster.

[BillyLP]

At the end of the day, I'm not sure the conference schedule really matters as far as my expectations. Even if it's the toughest draw of a MAC slate, I don't think stepping back or repeating at 5-3 will be acceptable.

[JohnFloyd4Life]

Anything short of a MAC title cements his status as a fraud (he obviously is, but winning in year six is better than not winning at all). He’s doing Ok. If they are just above average again next year and they bring him back then you are choosing to remain at best above average for the duration of that contract. I like being decent more than being terrible but if being decent is the ceiling then what are we doing here?

[Flipper]

It's hard to say WTF is going to happen in this conference any more as rosters turn over like the local Wendy's...I don't want to sit through another "meh" season like the last two...yeah, they're better than 0-5 and 4-8...but that really isn't saying much when you look at our history.

[Globetrotter]

Wins don't matter to me. It just has to be fun to watch. I assume wins come when it's fun to watch though. Fannin-Keith-Bazalek-Ferguson-Anders-Brown-Stewart......All extremely fun to watch.

It's not fun to watch when there are turnovers, the offense is stagnant, the defense is terrible, and there are tons of penalties.

Teams at our level are going to have weaknesses and holes and issues.

[jpfalcon09]

It's hard to say WTF is going to happen in this conference any more as rosters turn over like the local Wendy's...I don't want to sit through another "meh" season like the last two...yeah, they're better than 0-5 and 4-8...but that really isn't saying much when you look at our history.

Pretty obvious that the days of incremental improvement with your homegrown guys are over. Everyone at this level is losing known commodities and replacing them with question marks, so it's going to be impossible to tell from year to year how good a specific team is going to be. It's going to come down to coaching. I think BG has some excellent positional coaches that can push this over the top, but I still question Loeffler's in-game management skills to feel fully confident that he can reach the zenith of this program while he's the head man.

[Roll Along!]

One more conference win than last year. 6-2 puts us right in the thick for a MAC championship. Don't care about non-conference. The MAC doesn't compete on level footing with any other FBS conference so we shouldn't expect to win any of them. They are warm-ups for MAC play. We are compared against our peers. A 6-2 season shows progress forward at a time in college sports when consistently winning is harder and harder with all the turnover. Ohio, BG and Toledo are the only teams in the MAC that have won 5 MAC games in each of the last two years. No way will they fire Loeffler if they finish 4-4 or better next year.

[BGSU33]

Need to see how the MAC schedule breaks for this year with the new format before I give my expectation. Obviously we're seeing Toledo & NIU, but if BG can avoid Miami & Ohio they have a real good shot at going 7-1 or even running the table in conference play.

My thoughts exactly. It's agree that it's going to boil down to what pod BG missed out on. If we miss out on the Ohio/Miami/Ball State pod, I think we have a real good chance in the MAC standings and have the potential to make it to Detroit. But, I fully expect that BG is not going to avoid that pod (I hope I am wrong!) and that will make it very difficult. In fact, I could even see the MAC schedule come out with either the Ohio or Miami game sandwiched right in between the Penn State and Texas A&M game like they did last year in between Michigan and Georgia Tech. I have come to expect the worse when it comes to BG's scheduling from the MAC.

[fanatic13]

I expect to be playing in the championship game. This team is talented and we have a lot of production returning which is something we won't have often in this new era. There are no excuses for this team coming up short and if we can't finish top 3 maybe top 4 then there's no doubt we'll ever have a good enough roster to win with Loeffler.

Do we know we only play 2 pods? I don't think it was ever explained and it's possible we play 2 teams from each pod and rotate who we play in each pod through the 3 years

[BGSU33]

Do we know we only play 2 pods? I don't think it was ever explained and it's possible we play 2 teams from each pod and rotate who we play in each pod through the 3 years

There are four 3-team pods. You play the two teams every year in the pod you’re in (for BG that means UT & NIU) and then you also face two of the three other pods each season. Each year you rotate the other pod matchups (meaning you’ll get one new pod matchup each year), which will result in every team facing every other school at least once every three years. I’m really, really hoping we avoid the Ohio/Miami/Ball State pod. It would be HUGE for BG’s titles hopes if that happens since we’re already locked in with UT & NIU (the MAC’s toughest pod). If BG gets that pod, I don’t think we’re getting to Detroit. If we avoid that pod, I think we have a decent shot at making it happen. Now we sit and wait and see what the MAC deals us…

[FalconTurf]

Interesting looking at championship game history by pods (a little bored today):
BG/UT/NIU - 21 appearances 11-10 (3 games BG vs NIU, no other pod had two playing in championship)
MU/OU/BSU - 13 appearances 5-8
Directional MI - 7 appearances 4-3
Akr/Buff/Kent - 7 appearances 2-5
(Marshal was 5-1 in 6 appearances to even out the numbers)

Looking to the future how will this hurt the top 2 pods when they are matched plus tough in-Pod games? Someone smarter than me should be able to program a simulation that would demonstrate whether these are fair or unfair groupings. I would hope the MAC office and member administrators went to that much trouble.

And on the BG sacrifices for the conference front we get moved from east to west in essence. Has any other school changed between East and West division like BG?

[mbenecke]

These pods were chosen 100% based on geography and not for competitive balance.

[BGSU33]

These pods were chosen 100% based on geography and not for competitive balance.

This