2024-2025 season

[TalonsUpPuckDown]

The college hockey world is currently losing their minds over the Lucia Pets vaulting into first place in the standings after playing barely 50% of the league games as everyone else. But hey, I've been told ad nauseum "They're doing it the right way!" whatever the f&*k that means. All I know is they're escaping the grind of a full league schedule and the world is kissing their asses. Edit: If I were a Mankato fan it'd be hard not to feel like my team is getting screwed.

I don't know why this BS gets under my skin so much. But it does. Total BS.

[mbenecke]

The college hockey world is currently losing their minds over the Lucia Pets vaulting into first place in the standings after playing barely 50% of the league games as everyone else. But hey, I've been told ad nauseum "They're doing it the right way!" whatever the f&*k that means. All I know is they're escaping the grind of a full league schedule and the world is kissing their asses. Edit: If I were a Mankato fan it'd be hard not to feel like my team is getting screwed.

I don't know why this BS gets under my skin so much. But it does. Total BS.

You’re not alone. It’s totally unfair for them to play 10 less league games than everyone else and for the league to completely change the way they do business just to include them. Complete joke.

[pdt1081]

The college hockey world is currently losing their minds over the Lucia Pets vaulting into first place in the standings after playing barely 50% of the league games as everyone else. But hey, I've been told ad nauseum "They're doing it the right way!" whatever the f&*k that means. All I know is they're escaping the grind of a full league schedule and the world is kissing their asses. Edit: If I were a Mankato fan it'd be hard not to feel like my team is getting screwed.

I don't know why this BS gets under my skin so much. But it does. Total BS.

How many teams will go 4-0 versus other teams? There will be quite a few cases of 3-1, but only 1 or 2 going 4-0. Augustana fans are so new to college hockey they can't comprehend that.

[TalonsUpPuckDown]

I did some math. If they had played a full schedule to date they would need 5 additional wins with only 1 additional loss and 2 OT losses to have roughly the same points % they have now. And they have yet to play Mankato or Tech. Here's a table showing who they've played and the results. Look at that 0-0-2-0 line.

Code: Select all

Team	Loc	W	L	OTW	OTL
UST	 A	1	1	 0	 0
BSU	 H	1	0	 1	 0
FSU	 A	1	1	 0	 0
NMU	 H	2	0	 0	 0
BGSU	 A	0	0	 2	 0
LSSU	 H	1	

The more I look at this the more frustrated I get. I gotta focus on something else.

[pdt1081]

I did some math. If they had played a full schedule to date they would need 5 additional wins with only 1 additional loss and 2 OT losses to have roughly the same points % they have now. And they have yet to play Mankato or Tech. Here's a table showing who they've played and the results. Look at that 0-0-2-0 line.

Code: Select all

Team	Loc	W	L	OTW	OTL
UST	 A	1	1	 0	 0
BSU	 H	1	0	 1	 0
FSU	 A	1	1	 0	 0
NMU	 H	2	0	 0	 0
BGSU	 A	0	0	 2	 0
LSSU	 H	1	

The more I look at this the more frustrated I get. I gotta focus on something else.

So additional digging and analysis is needed when compared to how other teams have done in games 3 and 4. Mankato pretty much ran the table the first half. Last 3 series have been splits. There's not enough emphasis put on how difficult games 3 and 4 against an opponent are.

[pdt1081]

2 goals and 2 assists earns Scardina Forward of the Week.

[TalonsUpPuckDown]

By my calculations, if we'd won those three games we blew leads on those EA goals and picked up those 4 points we'd be tied with Mankato for first.

[TalonsUpPuckDown]

I did a quick Excel model to do a rough calculation on final league standings. It is not close to perfect but it gives a general idea as to which teams are fighting for which spots. Northern did not make the playoffs which my model shows so it's kinda correct. Percentages for each final position don't add up to 100% due to the possibility of a tie and there are a number of scenarios where the Viqueens and Mavs tie for the Cup.

There are 3 scenarios where we win the MacNaughton outright. It involves Tech sweeping the Viqueens and some combination of Minnesota State losing at least 3 of 4 while we win at least 3 of 4 and Tech losing at least one the last two weekends. GoTechGold!

Code: Select all

	                          Finish Position			
Team	 1	 2	 3	 4	 5	 6	 7	 8	 9
AU	20%	41%	21%	17%	 1%				
BGSU	 1%	20%	49%	22%	 8%				
BSU				 1%	11%	25%	25%	38%	
FSU			 5%	 6%	12%	23%	29%	25%	
LSSU			 4%	 5%	12%	25%	30%	24%	
MNSU	90%	8%	 1%	 1%					
MTU	 6%	14%	22%	36%	15%	 4%	 3%		
NMU									100%
UST			 2%	16%	43%	18%	11%	10%	

[mbenecke]

I am really hoping for a top 2 seed to get a potential semifinal game at home, as that's something that has never happened for us before. Winning the Cup for the regular season would be great, but I am really focused on getting ourselves great position for the CCHA playoffs to try to sneak into the NCAAs, since we're hosting the Toledo regional and would play there.

[pdt1081]

I did a quick Excel model to do a rough calculation on final league standings. It is not close to perfect but it gives a general idea as to which teams are fighting for which spots. Northern did not make the playoffs which my model shows so it's kinda correct. Percentages for each final position don't add up to 100% due to the possibility of a tie and there are a number of scenarios where the Viqueens and Mavs tie for the Cup.

There are 3 scenarios where we win the MacNaughton outright. It involves Tech sweeping the Viqueens and some combination of Minnesota State losing at least 3 of 4 while we win at least 3 of 4 and Tech losing at least one the last two weekends. GoTechGold!

Code: Select all

	                          Finish Position			
Team	 1	 2	 3	 4	 5	 6	 7	 8	 9
AU	20%	41%	21%	17%	 1%				
BGSU	 1%	20%	49%	22%	 8%				
BSU				 1%	11%	25%	25%	38%	
FSU			 5%	 6%	12%	23%	29%	25%	
LSSU			 4%	 5%	12%	25%	30%	24%	
MNSU	90%	8%	 1%	 1%					
MTU	 6%	14%	22%	36%	15%	 4%	 3%		
NMU									100%
UST			 2%	16%	43%	18%	11%	10%	

So you're saying there's a chance?


https://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratin ... Matrix.php

[TalonsUpPuckDown]

I am really hoping for a top 2 seed to get a potential semifinal game at home, as that's something that has never happened for us before. Winning the Cup for the regular season would be great, but I am really focused on getting ourselves great position for the CCHA playoffs to try to sneak into the NCAAs, since we're hosting the Toledo regional and would play there.

There is an excellent chance we'll play in Toledo. Why? Well, I told my wife back in August, "Yeah, go ahead and schedule the family vacation in AZ over that weekend, NFW are we ever going to sniff the NCAA's with this team." You all are welcome.

[mbenecke]

I am really hoping for a top 2 seed to get a potential semifinal game at home, as that's something that has never happened for us before. Winning the Cup for the regular season would be great, but I am really focused on getting ourselves great position for the CCHA playoffs to try to sneak into the NCAAs, since we're hosting the Toledo regional and would play there.

There is an excellent chance we'll play in Toledo. Why? Well, I told my wife back in August, "Yeah, go ahead and schedule the family vacation in AZ over that weekend, NFW are we ever going to sniff the NCAA's with this team." You all are welcome.

You better pack your lucky shirt.

[TalonsUpPuckDown]

I am really hoping for a top 2 seed to get a potential semifinal game at home, as that's something that has never happened for us before. Winning the Cup for the regular season would be great, but I am really focused on getting ourselves great position for the CCHA playoffs to try to sneak into the NCAAs, since we're hosting the Toledo regional and would play there.

There is an excellent chance we'll play in Toledo. Why? Well, I told my wife back in August, "Yeah, go ahead and schedule the family vacation in AZ over that weekend, NFW are we ever going to sniff the NCAA's with this team." You all are welcome.

You better pack your lucky shirt.

Oh, good call there.

[TalonsUpPuckDown]

I updated my cheesy standings predictor based on this weekend. MacNaughton is still a longshot but a possibility. Home ice is looking fairly decent for the first round, basically need at least 6 points or a couple Tommie and Laker losses or ties.

Code: Select all

	                        Finish Position								
Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
AU	2%	85%	13%						
BGSU	1%	7%	61%	27%	2%	2%			
BSU					13%	27%	22%	38%	
FSU				3%	22%	25%	28%	22%	
LSSU				8%	36%	34%	20%	2%	
MNSU	97%	1%	2%						
MTU		7%	22%	47%	16%	5%	2%	1%	
NMU									100%
UST			2%	20%	53%	13%	9%	3%	

[mbenecke]

What do we need in our last 4 games to pass Augustana? I believe they’re done, so their .625 is the benchmark.