jpfalcon09 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 05, 2026 8:14 pm
Over 4,500 players in the portal across Division 1. One third of all players. 40% of them will be out of football by the start of next season.
Is that 40% just hyperbole or has data shown that.
I contend that it makes sense under the current rules for every player to go in the portal. Tell your coach you love it here but want to test the waters. They pay to keep you or you come back for free or you fine a greener pasture.
jpfalcon09 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 05, 2026 8:14 pm
Over 4,500 players in the portal across Division 1. One third of all players. 40% of them will be out of football by the start of next season.
Is that 40% just hyperbole or has data shown that.
I contend that it makes sense under the current rules for every player to go in the portal. Tell your coach you love it here but want to test the waters. They pay to keep you or you come back for free or you fine a greener pasture.
The issue I'm having is I'm beginning to question the entire concept of the players being students. How do you effectively complete a degree if you are constantly transferring to new schools? Or, are we just ignoring the entire concept of the players actually being students? At what point do we just say that these players aren't even students but instead are playing football on a team sponsored by a college, then no longer require them to even attend classes?
Let's not forget that some non-insignificant percentage of the 4500 are in the portal because their current coach told them to leave. Not everyone out there is looking for a payday, some are simply looking to hang on. This new world cuts both ways.
Case in point - every one of the hockey players that hit the portal last year understood they wouldn't be getting any playing time going forward. None of them landed with a D1 team in a "better" league. They're either in USports, DIII, overseas, or playing beer league.
jpfalcon09 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 05, 2026 8:14 pm
Over 4,500 players in the portal across Division 1. One third of all players. 40% of them will be out of football by the start of next season.
Is that 40% just hyperbole or has data shown that.
I contend that it makes sense under the current rules for every player to go in the portal. Tell your coach you love it here but want to test the waters. They pay to keep you or you come back for free or you fine a greener pasture.
30% last year didn't find a landing spot in college football. Last season, 17% of P4 and 26% of G5 transfers didn't find a home. Greater number for those in FCS as that level went heavier into traditional high school recruiting classes. 40% might be a bit hyperbolic. 31% of transfers across all collegiate sports lost their roster spots and never caught on elsewhere.
jpfalcon09 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 05, 2026 8:14 pm
Over 4,500 players in the portal across Division 1. One third of all players. 40% of them will be out of football by the start of next season.
Is that 40% just hyperbole or has data shown that.
I contend that it makes sense under the current rules for every player to go in the portal. Tell your coach you love it here but want to test the waters. They pay to keep you or you come back for free or you fine a greener pasture.
30% last year didn't find a landing spot in college football. Last season, 17% of P4 and 26% of G5 transfers didn't find a home. Greater number for those in FCS as that level went heavier into traditional high school recruiting classes. 40% might be a bit hyperbolic. 31% of transfers across all collegiate sports lost their roster spots and never caught on elsewhere.
TalonsUpPuckDown wrote: ↑Tue Jan 06, 2026 10:49 am
Let's not forget that some non-insignificant percentage of the 4500 are in the portal because their current coach told them to leave. Not everyone out there is looking for a payday, some are simply looking to hang on. This new world cuts both ways.
Case in point - every one of the hockey players that hit the portal last year understood they wouldn't be getting any playing time going forward. None of them landed with a D1 team in a "better" league. They're either in USports, DIII, overseas, or playing beer league.
Hockey's a unique situation with the resource investment in recruiting, how long that process takes, the culture, and at the moment the lack of consistent high-dollar NIL collectives. No doubt some schools have the money to spend (hello Gavin McKenna), but outside of the high-end guys the hockey portal is really more of a patch lineup holes type of deal as opposed to football and basketball.
TalonsUpPuckDown wrote: ↑Tue Jan 06, 2026 10:49 am
Let's not forget that some non-insignificant percentage of the 4500 are in the portal because their current coach told them to leave. Not everyone out there is looking for a payday, some are simply looking to hang on. This new world cuts both ways.
Case in point - every one of the hockey players that hit the portal last year understood they wouldn't be getting any playing time going forward. None of them landed with a D1 team in a "better" league. They're either in USports, DIII, overseas, or playing beer league.
Hockey's a unique situation with the resource investment in recruiting, how long that process takes, the culture, and at the moment the lack of consistent high-dollar NIL collectives. No doubt some schools have the money to spend (hello Gavin McKenna), but outside of the high-end guys the hockey portal is really more of a patch lineup holes type of deal as opposed to football and basketball.
The point I was making is that it ain't 4500 football kids all hitting the portal looking to make bank which is my takeaway from the conversation. There are a lot kids kicked to the curb from every conference which is how we (the collective MAC "we," not the singular BG "we") end up reloading. Apologies for the wrong example.
TalonsUpPuckDown wrote: ↑Tue Jan 06, 2026 10:49 am
Let's not forget that some non-insignificant percentage of the 4500 are in the portal because their current coach told them to leave. Not everyone out there is looking for a payday, some are simply looking to hang on. This new world cuts both ways.
Case in point - every one of the hockey players that hit the portal last year understood they wouldn't be getting any playing time going forward. None of them landed with a D1 team in a "better" league. They're either in USports, DIII, overseas, or playing beer league.
Hockey's a unique situation with the resource investment in recruiting, how long that process takes, the culture, and at the moment the lack of consistent high-dollar NIL collectives. No doubt some schools have the money to spend (hello Gavin McKenna), but outside of the high-end guys the hockey portal is really more of a patch lineup holes type of deal as opposed to football and basketball.
The point I was making is that it ain't 4500 football kids all hitting the portal looking to make bank which is my takeaway from the conversation. There are a lot kids kicked to the curb from every conference which is how we (the collective MAC "we," not the singular BG "we") end up reloading. Apologies for the wrong example.
Wasn't a wrong example. You're right, not everyone in the portal is there by choice. I saw yesterday that USC dumped a guy who was making $550K that caught only one pass the entire season. Plenty more who never got a chance to play and the coach is effectively releasing them.
Wisconsin, cincinnati, colorado, and fsu. We can't compete with that. We had a solid team but with the qb decimatation and play calling we didn't live up to our potential. Now we're facing a reset with a new coach and culture when players had less time to leave last year. Fcs championship was a lot of fun yesterday along with the whole playoff even though they have the same issue with half the team leaving each year.
Stetson Bennett was the famous one for not having a degree after six years of college and 5 of those were at Georgia. With those resources and eligibility requirements I have no idea how he didn't get one. I'm sure there are plenty of extra "students" not getting a degree or that don't get a meaningful degree because they're not connecting with their program
Caden Marshall to NIL-rich SMU. Do the big schools still have high school recruiting classes? Where do they all have room for so many G5 guys?
I know we underachieved as a team due to injuries and awful QB play and play-calling, but I am a bit surprised that we are at 6 P5 transfers and counting. I thought Harris and Lampron (and MAYBE Pabst, who I did not think had a great year) would find greener pastures.
BG '10
Attended more games than any responsible student should have.
BillyLP wrote: ↑Tue Jan 06, 2026 5:14 pm
Caden Marshall to NIL-rich SMU. Do the big schools still have high school recruiting classes? Where do they all have room for so many G5 guys?
I know we underachieved as a team due to injuries and awful QB play and play-calling, but I am a bit surprised that we are at 6 P5 transfers and counting. I thought Harris and Lampron (and MAYBE Pabst, who I did not think had a great year) would find greener pastures.
My buddy is friends with an agent and here's what is happening. The P4 is realizing recruiting and development is sunk cost. Spending resources on guys that may or may not pan out. The guys who don't pan out are essentially getting cut and told to go into the portal. Good luck to ya.
They're being replaced with G5 players who have been developed and are known entities. Even depth guys. They're cool with shelling out $50-75K to guys who probably only get 20 snaps a game. All in the name of 1) trying to keep guys away from other schools and 2) making the drop off from the 1s to 2s being less severe.
The G5 is going to become underclassmen heavy with P4 castoffs sprinkled in. Basically developmental leagues for the big boys to then have their pick of the litter every offseason. The quality of play at this level is going to suffer and maxing out 8-9 wins will be the peak.
