@ Michigan Tech (2/27-28)

[mbenecke]

This weekend, our Falcons (16-9-7, 5th CCHA) will be heading up north to take on the Michigan Tech Huskies (21-10-3, 3rd CCHA) in an absolutely pivotal matchup. Anything can happen this weekend - from BG securing home ice to Tech hoisting the MacNaughton with us in the building. Only 4 points separate teams 2-5 in the standings, and there is a ton to play for here.

I won't bother with all the hypotheticals (counting on TUPD for that!) but all I know is, if we sweep em this weekend, we will have home ice in the first round. So that's what I am focused on.

Games are 7:07 on Friday, 6:07 on Saturday. C'mon Falcons.

[mbenecke]

I won't bother with all the hypotheticals (counting on TUPD for that!)

Ahem.

[TalonsUpPuckDown]

I've been trying to overcome my dejection from last weekend's disaster and placed myself on a college hockey news blackout for the week. Sorry.

Though the chart shows 8% for us to win the MacNaughton, I don't think that's accurate. ELO is performance based and doesn't figure in the tiebreakers. The best we can do is 50 points which is what Augie has and I think they hold the tiebreaker over us. To finish anywhere other than 5th we need help with one exception: we have to take all 6 points from Tech to pass them. If we only take 5 points we lose on the tiebreaker. Mankato and St. Thomas have "easy" opponents this weekend. Not a good spot for us to be in right now.

[mbenecke]

I've been trying to overcome my dejection from last weekend's disaster and placed myself on a college hockey news blackout for the week. Sorry.

Though the chart shows 8% for us to win the MacNaughton, I don't think that's accurate. ELO is performance based and doesn't figure in the tiebreakers. The best we can do is 50 points which is what Augie has and I think they hold the tiebreaker over us. To finish anywhere other than 5th we need help with one exception: we have to take all 6 points from Tech to pass them. If we only take 5 points we lose on the tiebreaker. Mankato and St. Thomas have "easy" opponents this weekend. Not a good spot for us to be in right now.

I think we actually do hold the tiebreaker over Augustana - the first tiebreaker is head to head, but only counts if we play 4 against each other (2 home, 2 away) or else it bumps to the next criteria of regulation wins - and if we're getting 6 points this weekend, we get 2 more, which gives us 15 to their 14. So in the scenario that the other good teams fall off a cliff and we sweep this weekend, I do think we would indeed win the MacNaughton.

Let's get the sweep and let the chips fall where they may. I want home playoff hockey!

[pdt1081]

I've been trying to overcome my dejection from last weekend's disaster and placed myself on a college hockey news blackout for the week. Sorry.

Though the chart shows 8% for us to win the MacNaughton, I don't think that's accurate. ELO is performance based and doesn't figure in the tiebreakers. The best we can do is 50 points which is what Augie has and I think they hold the tiebreaker over us. To finish anywhere other than 5th we need help with one exception: we have to take all 6 points from Tech to pass them. If we only take 5 points we lose on the tiebreaker. Mankato and St. Thomas have "easy" opponents this weekend. Not a good spot for us to be in right now.

There does exist a scenario where Augie wins the MacNaughton as well. And it's not that far fetched in a Lucia CCHA. Question is, if BG, Mankato, and Bemidji all win tonight, where does the MacNaughton and Lucia go tomorrow?

[TalonsUpPuckDown]

I've been trying to overcome my dejection from last weekend's disaster and placed myself on a college hockey news blackout for the week. Sorry.

Though the chart shows 8% for us to win the MacNaughton, I don't think that's accurate. ELO is performance based and doesn't figure in the tiebreakers. The best we can do is 50 points which is what Augie has and I think they hold the tiebreaker over us. To finish anywhere other than 5th we need help with one exception: we have to take all 6 points from Tech to pass them. If we only take 5 points we lose on the tiebreaker. Mankato and St. Thomas have "easy" opponents this weekend. Not a good spot for us to be in right now.

I think we actually do hold the tiebreaker over Augustana - the first tiebreaker is head to head, but only counts if we play 4 against each other (2 home, 2 away) or else it bumps to the next criteria of regulation wins - and if we're getting 6 points this weekend, we get 2 more, which gives us 15 to their 14. So in the scenario that the other good teams fall off a cliff and we sweep this weekend, I do think we would indeed win the MacNaughton.

Let's get the sweep and let the chips fall where they may. I want home playoff hockey!

On tiebreaker 2, I think Augie currently has 13 regulation wins and we have 11 so we'd tie - CCHA.com includes overtime wins in the wins column, CHN appears to have this listed correctly. On tiebreaker 3 we'd both tie in winning percentage (according to my calculations). On 4, we have more GF, Augie has fewer GA and I don't know how that's calculated for tiebreaking purposes so I can't tell if we win or lose on that one.

[TalonsUpPuckDown]

I've been trying to overcome my dejection from last weekend's disaster and placed myself on a college hockey news blackout for the week. Sorry.

Though the chart shows 8% for us to win the MacNaughton, I don't think that's accurate. ELO is performance based and doesn't figure in the tiebreakers. The best we can do is 50 points which is what Augie has and I think they hold the tiebreaker over us. To finish anywhere other than 5th we need help with one exception: we have to take all 6 points from Tech to pass them. If we only take 5 points we lose on the tiebreaker. Mankato and St. Thomas have "easy" opponents this weekend. Not a good spot for us to be in right now.

There does exist a scenario where Augie wins the MacNaughton as well. And it's not that far fetched in a Lucia CCHA. Question is, if BG, Mankato, and Bemidji all win tonight, where does the MacNaughton and Lucia go tomorrow?

Easy. He goes to Mankato. It's only an hour trip for him. You think he's going to Bemidji if there's any realistic chance he doesn't need to? /s

[mbenecke]

He's gonna have a sleepover at Strand's house either way.

[TalonsUpPuckDown]

Confirmed we're down to tiebreaker 4, goal differential. If we sweep Tech, we have the same number of regulation wins as Augie (13). We then have the same win% so we tie on tiebreaker 3. That moves us to tiebreaker 4, goal differential. We'll need to outscore Tech by 13 goals this weekend to move ahead of the Viqueens in the standings. Anything short of that and we finish behind Augustana.

[pdt1081]

Confirmed we're down to tiebreaker 4, goal differential. If we sweep Tech, we have the same number of regulation wins as Augie (13). We then have the same win% so we tie on tiebreaker 3. That moves us to tiebreaker 4, goal differential. We'll need to outscore Tech by 13 goals this weekend to move ahead of the Viqueens in the standings. Anything short of that and we finish behind Augustana.

Can you imagine being up 12-1 on Saturday night and puking the goalie for another? That'd be wild.

[mbenecke]

Falcons win Game 1, 1-0, thanks to a goal from Rymon and a 30-save shutout from Palmer. These highly touted freshmen are playing well at the right time.

That’s 3 points. Get 3 more tomorrow and we’ll see you at the Slate next weekend.

[TalonsUpPuckDown]

This evening was almost perfect for us. Bottom line, we must beat Tech again in regulation. Anything less and we’re on the road.

[TalonsUpPuckDown]

And Tech Nation thinks the refs were in our pockets tonight.

[pdt1081]

And Tech Nation thinks the refs were in our pockets tonight.

They obviously haven't watch any games from BGSU this season. Taking the body on dump ins has been called multiple times this season. It's apparently not called elsewhere.

And isn't there still a spot on the rulebook pertaining to using noise makers during play?

[pdt1081]

This evening was almost perfect for us. Bottom line, we must beat Tech again in regulation. Anything less and we’re on the road.

A win in regulation and it's very probable the two teams can share a charter to BG.