CFN bowl projections

[BGSUVA]

I don't know if any of you pay any attention to them (I stopped like 2 or 3 years ago) but here are their bowl projections... http://www.collegefootballnews.com/2005 ... lDates.htm
We aren't going bowling, according to them, they have Miami and Toledo representing the MAC. CFN blows.

[Redwingtom]

Well...what do you expect? Until we win a meaningful conference road game they would be stupid to pick us to beat Miami and they way the MAC is, that is the East title game. I don't think we will win at Miami either. Sure we can. I just don't see it happening. And there is no way there will be more than two MAC bowl teams this year. Last year was an anomaly beyond all proportions.

[hammb]

Well...what do you expect? Until we win a meaningful conference road game they would be stupid to pick us to beat Miami and they way the MAC is, that is the East title game. I don't think we will win at Miami either. Sure we can. I just don't see it happening. And there is no way there will be more than two MAC bowl teams this year. Last year was an anomaly beyond all proportions.

Agreed.

We have the most talented team in the MAC, IMO, but until our coaching staff can put it all together for some tough road games national pundits are right to question us. We haven't been able to get our kids ready to play for a tough road game in years. People will jump on our bandwagon when we prove we are capable of doing just that.

[1987alum]

I'll third that.

Add also that there's little to no chance that the MAC gets a third bowl bid this year, so if BG doesn't win the East, we likely will not go bowling.

[BGSU-Ph.D.]

I'll third that.

Add also that there's little to no chance that the MAC gets a third bowl bid this year, so if BG doesn't win the East, we likely will not go bowling.

I've argued this before and I will again: If BG beats Toledo head-to-head and Toledo goes on to lose the MAC championship game to Miami, then BG will get the second bowl (assuming, of course, that BG and Toledo have comparable overall records). For the sake of argument, I will assume BG loses to Miami (although I don't think it will happen). Toledo being in the championship game doesn't mean squat except that they were in the division that was weaker at the top. If they lose to Miami then both BG and Toledo would have lost to Miami and BG would have beaten Toledo head-to-head. Of course, NIU might have something to say about this.

[1987alum]

I'll third that.

Add also that there's little to no chance that the MAC gets a third bowl bid this year, so if BG doesn't win the East, we likely will not go bowling.

I've argued this before and I will again: If BG beats Toledo head-to-head and Toledo goes on to lose the MAC championship game to Miami, then BG will get the second bowl (assuming, of course, that BG and Toledo have comparable overall records). For the sake of argument, I will assume BG loses to Miami (although I don't think it will happen). Toledo being in the championship game doesn't mean squat except that they were in the division that was weaker at the top. If they lose to Miami then both BG and Toledo would have lost to Miami and BG would have beaten Toledo head-to-head. Of course, NIU might have something to say about this.

Well, maybe. But that's a big maybe. And it's also a lot of "ifs" and "buts" (what did my Dad used to say? If "ifs" and "buts" were trees and nuts ...). In your scenario, are you assuming BG wins one or both of their big OOC games, too?

Still ... I can't imagine the s**tstorm Chryst will endure if one of the MACC game participants sits at home during the bowl season.

[BGSU-Ph.D.]

I'll third that.

Add also that there's little to no chance that the MAC gets a third bowl bid this year, so if BG doesn't win the East, we likely will not go bowling.

I've argued this before and I will again: If BG beats Toledo head-to-head and Toledo goes on to lose the MAC championship game to Miami, then BG will get the second bowl (assuming, of course, that BG and Toledo have comparable overall records). For the sake of argument, I will assume BG loses to Miami (although I don't think it will happen). Toledo being in the championship game doesn't mean squat except that they were in the division that was weaker at the top. If they lose to Miami then both BG and Toledo would have lost to Miami and BG would have beaten Toledo head-to-head. Of course, NIU might have something to say about this.

Well, maybe. But that's a big maybe. And it's also a lot of "ifs" and "buts" (what did my Dad used to say? If "ifs" and "buts" were trees and nuts ...). In your scenario, are you assuming BG wins one or both of their big OOC games, too?

Still ... I can't imagine the s**tstorm Chryst will endure if one of the MACC game participants sits at home during the bowl season.

Yes, I am assuming BG wins at least 2 of the OOC games and that Toledo has a comparable overall record.

The senario is a little different than in the past when the MAC sent only two teams to bowls:


2003 Motor City Bowl, BOWLING GREEN
2003 GMAC Bowl, MIAMI

Miami beat BG in the MAC championship. Beside 8-0 Miami, BG was the only 7-1 team in conference play. During the regular season, BG lost to Miami, but beat Toledo and NIU.

2002 GMAC Bowl, MARSHALL
2002 Motor City Bowl, TOLEDO

Marshall beat Toledo in the MAC championship. Toledo and NIU were the only other 7-1 teams in conference play and Toledo beat NIU (thus, they went to the title game).

2001 Motor City Bowl, TOLEDO
2001 GMAC Bowl, MARSHALL

Toledo beat Marshall in the MAC championship and Marshall was undefeated in regular season MAC play.

[TG1996]

Still ... I can't imagine the s**tstorm Chryst will endure if one of the MACC game participants sits at home during the bowl season.

But what if (I know, I know) we *do* win all the OOC games, roll everyone by 35 points, lose to Miami(OH) in a blizzard 77-76 (Damn you, Timchenko!!! ) then beat West Champ Toledo so bad they wish we were only UCONN or Boston College? I don't think the "s**itstorm" would be quite as bad.

Alot of "if's", sure, but its still July, and I still think this team can go undefeated.

[1987alum]

BGSU-Ph.D.:

I don't think the scenario would be all that different. For one, the MAC will very likely end up with only two bowl bids this year. In all three scenarios you mention, I think the main point is that the two participants in the MACC game went to the bowls; other teams stayed home. Our friends up north will be glad to talk to you about having a 10-1 record and staying home for the bowl season (though that's the MAC pre-2-bowl-bids, it's still relevant here).

TG: I think we can go undefeated, too. And I think we should win the MAC East AND the MACC game. But we have our work cut out for us, to be sure.

EDITED TO ADD: TG, if our only loss of the season is to Miami and they run the MAC table to get into the MACC game, well, we'll see. I still think Chryst would be in a pretty ugly situation. I mean, imagine if the tables were turned, if BG got to the MACC and then got left home during bowl season.

[BGSU-Ph.D.]

[quote="1987alum"]BGSU-Ph.D.:

I don't think the scenario would be all that different. For one, the MAC will very likely end up with only two bowl bids this year. In all three scenarios you mention, I think the main point is that the two participants in the MACC game went to the bowls; other teams stayed home. Our friends up north will be glad to talk to you about having a 10-1 record and staying home for the bowl season (though that's the MAC pre-2-bowl-bids, it's still relevant here).

---------

The fact that BG moved to the East yet still plays Toledo changes things.

The difference under my senario is simply this: BG would have beaten Toledo. In each of the three that I cited above, no third team (that is, a team that didn't participate in the Championship game) could claim both the same or better record and a head-to-head victory over the championship game loser.

Here is a so-so analogy. So-so because this league has many more bowl tie-ins. Take the Big 12 which recently has two unequal divisions. Oklahoma, the champion of the North, played Colorado, the champion of the South and whooped that @$$! Does anyone think Colorado was the second most deserving when it came to bowl selection just because they played in the championship game? Certainly, they weren't picked second by the affiliated bowls.

Anyway, enough of this.

[Salsa]

One thing that's clear is this--we have the best chance of beating Miami this season that we have had in years.

If our offensive playmakers are healthy for this game, I think we'll score well.

On defense, since the game comes late in the season, we will have had several games to improve our defense.

But the key point in my mind is the QB matchup. I don't think Miami's Betts has shown yet that he can play at his best under pressure. In the Independence Bowl last year, Betts couldn't come through in the clutch. Certainly he can make some very good plays, but he also seems to make key mistakes that are costly.

So, indeed this will probably be a tough one for BG. But as I said, it's the best chance to beat Miami that we've had in years.

And by the way, I agree with BGSU-Ph.D.'s analysis of our Bowl chances. If we go into the Miami game undefeated in MAC play and if Omar has had a strong year, I think it will be difficult to keep BG out of a bowl game, even if we lose against both Miami and Toledo. The exception to this case would be if Northern Illinois wins the West.

[TG1996]

EDITED TO ADD: TG, if our only loss of the season is to Miami and they run the MAC table to get into the MACC game, well, we'll see. I still think Chryst would be in a pretty ugly situation. I mean, imagine if the tables were turned, if BG got to the MACC and then got left home during bowl season.

I know, we'd hate it if it happened to us, but if we were picked over for an NIU/UT team that had beaten us soundly (especially Toledo, considering the beating would have taken place a week before), could we really complain? Until they make a hard and fast rule that the division winners get the bowl bids, I don't think we could.

[BGSU-Ph.D.]

One thing that's clear is this--we have the best chance of beating Miami this season that we have had in years.

If our offensive playmakers are healthy for this game, I think we'll score well.

On defense, since the game comes late in the season, we will have had several games to improve our defense.

But the key point in my mind is the QB matchup. I don't think Miami's Betts has shown yet that he can play at his best under pressure. In the Independence Bowl last year, Betts couldn't come through in the clutch. Certainly he can make some very good plays, but he also seems to make key mistakes that are costly.

So, indeed this will probably be a tough one for BG. But as I said, it's the best chance to beat Miami that we've had in years.

And by the way, I agree with BGSU-Ph.D.'s analysis of our Bowl chances. If we go into the Miami game undefeated in MAC play and if Omar has had a strong year, I think it will be difficult to keep BG out of a bowl game, even if we lose against both Miami and Toledo. The exception to this case would be if Northern Illinois wins the West.

Salsa -

It is great to have you on board, but my claim was contingent on us beating Toledo.

[Falconfreak90]

Until we prove we can win the Big MAC road game, I don't see why people would pick us ahead of Miami. They are the 2 time defending East Champ.

To get over the hump, we are gonna have to go in and physically take the East title from them. We have a lot of motivation including going 0-6 vs the 'Hawks the last few years. Personally, I think we have a good shot beating Miami in Oxford this year. We have a very hungry team.

In addition, we must win every other MAC game as well. One slip up anywhere could prove very costly. Miami must go to NIU...that works well for us since the Huskies (as we all know) are virtually unbeatable there (except if you're UT).

We both travel to Kent which could be a possible land mine.

One game at a time....

54 days.

GO FALCONS!!

[kdog27]

We both travel to Kent which could be a possible land mine.

Yup, everyone around here completely dismisses any game that does not include a combination of NIU, Miami, Toledo, or BG playing each other. We start acting like these are the only teams we can lose to and before you know it, Akron is going beat us. You can't just assume that both Miami and BG are going be undefeated in conference play when they meet. The rest of our conference deserves a little more respect that that.