More (almost) senseless bowl talk

[BGSU-Ph.D.]

The Bowl Picture as of 11-23

56 bowl slots
53 eligible
+ At least one Sun Belt team will become eligible since La-Lafayette and La-Monroe play tomorrow. The winner of that game or Arkansas St. will be the Sun Belt’s only bowl team.
= 54 eligible (not including any other Sun Belt team as a viable bowl candidate)

If Akron loses tomorrow, they are not bowl eligible. If they win, they will be 6-5. BUT, as per 87’s post, they would be ineligible with a loss to NIU in the MACC. So, Akron can only become bowl eligible with a win tomorrow and a win in the MACC.

OK, excluding Akron and the three Sun Belt teams, these are the teams that are “on the bubble” of bowl eligibility:

Maryland (5-5)
North Carolina (5-5)
NC State (5-5)
Connecticut (4-5)
Pittsburgh (5-5)
Kansas (5-5)
Texas A&M (5-5)
Houston (5-5)
Memphis (5-5)
Southern Miss (5-5)
UAB (5-5)
Arizona State (5-5)
Stanford (5-5)

Maryland and N.C. St play, so the winner goes to a bowl and the loser doesn’t.
N. Carolina plays Va. Tech so UNC will likely lose.
Connecticut plays USF and Louisville. There is a good chance that Uconn will lose both.
Pitt plays W. Virginia. It is a rivalry, but WVU will likely win.
Kansas will be an underdog against Iowa St.
Texas A&M has little hope of beating Texas.
Memphis (v. Marshall), Houston (v. Rice), S. Miss (v. Tulane), and UAB (v. E. Carolina) will all be favored. It would be surprising if Houston lost and shocking if S. Miss lost.
Arizona St. plays Arizona. Since ASU has gotten worse and Arizona has gotten better, I give only a slight edge to ASU.
Stanford is a big underdog v. Notre Dame

I think that is it. The upshot? We need many teams to lose just to have the chance of being selected from a bunch of other MAC, C-USA, MWC, and WAC teams. Dead? No. Life Support? Yes.

[BGGrad01]

I just looked at the standings on espn.com. Things don't look as good for the MAC as I had originally thought.

Assuming only 2 MAC teams get bids and 1 Sun Belt, then 54 of the 56 spots are filled. There are 6 5-5 teams playing today. At least 3 are heavy favorites. Looks to me like only 2 MAC teams will get bids unless there is some major miracle.