Atiku, Tinubu And Obi: Taking Campaigns Back To The Streets
The race toward the 2023 presidential elections is getting more interesting. Interesting because the main combatants are gradually honing their skills, adjusting their strategies and indeed returning to the real business of politicking after winning the primaries.
Except for the main opposition People’s Democratic Party, PDP, flag bearer Abubakar Atiku having to contend with intra party crisis which borders on pilfering of it’s funds, both he and the two other main contenders are back to the streets where the votes are.
The contenders have hitherto dissipated energy on social media but the recent decision of supporters and managers of Labour Party, LP candidate Peter Obis to test the waters of his social media strength in Lekki, Tinubu and Atiku too have returned to where the votes are-the streets, to show their strength and test the waters of their acceptability.
Yes, crowd funding and crowd renting are part of the game-which potency is doubtful, yet the fact remains that majority of those who vote are on the streets as they are the ones who defy rain, sun and whatever to hold their cards high on election day either to vote, sell or bargain …they remains a factor.
Yes ,social media has since taken over the frenzy of electioneering, Atikus declaration few weeks back that his voters in the North are not social media compliant is instructive.
Instructive because both the North West and North East which has combination of over 37 million voters among them, remains decider of who wins the presidential election.
By the statement, Atiku may appear to belittle the intelligence or otherwise of the Northern youths and voters but the fact remains he is speaking the truth.
It remains the truth because this voters from the geographical enclave dance to the instructions of their Emirs, traditional rulers and indeed religious leaders who merely wait for Friday preceding the election to get instructions on who to vote for.
In spite of PDPs internal crisis, the leaders mentioned above have a hold on voters and populace.
It is not for nothing that the late Lord Frederick Lugard ,used them to achieve control and success of his Indirect rule system after the 1914 amalgamation.
So Atiku knows where the trick and strength of Northern voters is.
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Atiku also knows that the business of getting the southerners to the polling booth to do his biddings lie more on the streets of southern states than in the court of traditional rulers unlike what obtains in the mosques and palaces of the North.
He started his own campaign from Uyo, the South South states which like the North Central remains swing states for the trio of himself, Tinubu and Peter Obis since the three of them have traditional followers from their three block vote deliverable areas.
He kicked off from Uyo, the Akwa Ibom state capital.
For him, strategically he may end his campaign in the core north including his North East base.
Obis decision to take his campaign to Lekki though stopped by the police is equally meant to test the waters and prove both an ethnic boast of Lagos as no man’s Land and in this case using the youths who are his immediate fans as anchor.
Though, he couldn’t, the venue having been obviously shut down by the powers that control Lagos, he made a point .
It’s abortion was also informed by the emotions the destruction of Lekki stood for among Lagos leaders who read motives behind the move especially the far reaching implications of the EndSars protest.
Yet, the rally which held in the mainland made a point and rattled not a few.
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But the decision of the All Progressives Congress, APC of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, the man who remains the one to beat, to kick ,-off with Women rally in Lagos previous week turned the table in street duel among the leading aspirants.
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Like the late strongman of Kwara politics, Senator Olusola Saraki whose immediate constituency and most consistent voting class was Women, Tinubus handlers strategy of drawing Lagos women out penultimate week, was a show of strength of sorts .
During his eight years tenure as governor of Lagos, women group led by his late mother Abibatu Mogaji of blessed memory remains his most consistent followers as the former also did for both defunct Action Group, AG and it’s successor in then Unity Party of Nigeria, UPN during the first and second republics.
Today, women market group in Lagos rests on Folashade Ojo, Tinubus first daughter shoulder as she maintains effective control as Iyaloja.
Those who are visionary enough knew why Tinubu will not let go, Iyaloja title -leader of market women, held by her late mother for years.
Indeed, Computer Village, the commercial nerve Center of Ikeja,the capital of Lagos remains in the firm grip of one of Tinubus boys as Chairman.
While Tinubu was busy moving from one palace to the other in the core North, his foot soldiers in the South especially Lagos were busy mobilising.
Sunday October 9 was the day Musiliu Akinsanya, aka MC Oluomo,the erstwhile leader of strong National Union of Road Transport Workers, NURTW- show their strength and solidarity in Lagos with a rally for Tinubu which remains incomparable with any of such since 1999.
Like the hold on Lagos market women, Oluomos show in Lagos holding the city on edge for hours is a demonstration of control on where the men’s voting population and strength is.
The NURTW remains the flotsam and jet-sam of political power hence, Tinubu ensured Oluomo returned as Chairman of the parks which control NURTW operations in the state.
Head or tail, the parks in Lagos remains the home and strength of NURTW.
So whoever is the bodies leader in Lagos remains Oluomos boy.
Sundays massive turn- out rally in Lagos ,was a demonstration of Tinubus hold on the state which records over 6million registered voters more than a third of South West total registered voters list of 18 million.
Though Independent People’s of Biafra, IPOB, retains a tool of followership in the South East, it remains Obis instrument of street followership though Governor Dave Umahi of Ebonyi remains adamant to prove his mettle with the Umuahias rally last week for APC and Tinubu.
It remains unclear how IPOB intends to punish Ebonyi with sit- at- home since Obi remains the instrument closer to it’s Biafra agitation and Ebonyi one of the states from where he intends to draw block votes.
Curiously, only New Nigeria Party, NNPP of Kwakwanso is yet to engage the Street headlong.
It may not be unconnected with his reported subtle moves to back one of the candidates.
The following months when campaign gets hotter since National assembly candidates have their fate tied to presidential candidates in their parties would also go to the street to intensify grassroots mobilisation.
Same practice will go for first term governors whose fate will be determined by performance of their parties presidential candidates during the first week of election.
Interesting days lie ahead as next year’s election remains a tough battle for its transitory nature for Presidential election since the incumbent is not contesting and herculean for governors returning for second term.
