Niger Crisis: Tinubu And The Burden Of Leadership, By Tunde Abatan
“Tinubus ‘meddlesomeness’ in Niger is akin to a man carrying Elephant on his head and using his led to a search for Cricket”
Uneasy lies the head that wears the crown says a sage.
It is a confirmation of the presumptions from many quarters that like previous leaders, his Honeymoon with Nigerians have ended after two months in Power.
Though, he has achieved much by the far reaching economic and other decisions he has taken, it is clear that they all point to his decision to thread where others feared and failed.
For removing Fuel Subsidy and collapsing parallel foreign exchange market, he pointed to direction of his state policies.
But then, his handling of the aftermath of Fuel subsidy removal and organized Labour led by Nigeria Labour Congress, NLC taking to the streets and invading the premises of National Assembly, is an indication of end to honey moon which started May 29,2023 on assumption of power.
Though he is yet to form a Cabinet, Labours action last week when it went to the streets and the screening of his Ministerial nominee are pointers to what lies ahead.
With increasing oil revenue, through triple jump of earnings from Federation account to N1.9trillion, it is joy to the states.
He has also pushed the implementation of Cash transfer in form of palliatives to the people to the thirty-six states.
In other words, Tinubu has concerned himself only with policies targeted at the different sectors like Roads, Agriculture and Industries.
With over Five hundred billion as grants and investment to the real industrial sector, the implementation of policies which looks good on paper rains Tinubu’s biggest headache.
However, of much dilemma and headache is the rumblings brought by military coup d’état in neighbouring Niger Republic where General Abdourahaman Tchiani led soldiers to sack President Mohammed Bazoum from power barely seventeen days after Tinubu became ECOWAS Chairman.
What a time, what a President.
Tinubu has barely finished basking in the euphoria of becoming Nigeria’s President that he had problems which is to test his resolve to defend democracy.
While established democracies like United States, Britain and France, Nigeria colonial masters have condemned the coup and wants Economic Community of West African states to push the military back to barrack the way they did in Gambia in when their joint force pushed out Yahayah Jameh and prevent him from being another dictator in the tiny west African country bordered by Senegal and Atlantic Ocean.
But the Niger issue is a different ball game.
With a population of 27,300,357 million people, it is the largest country geographically in West Africa.
Ironically, its new military rulers have the backing of Mali and Burkina Faso, two countries struggling to free themselves from stranglehold of France, their colonial masters.
Niger’s crisis and conflict of power is complex because of Russia’s alleged sponsorship of the military putsch for its self-interest to hijack France sphere of influence from its colonies in West Africa.
Besides, Russia being encouraged by Wagner-its trouble shooting revolutionary wing, is intent on returning the World to the cold War era.
This is reflected in the face of its determination to extend its sphere of influence in other parts of Africa.
It is also not impossible that countries like Benin Republic, Senegal and Vote divorce are being propped up by the West to resist Russia’s bid to extend its sphere of influence in Africa.
Not only that, Russia is interested in Niger, obviously for it having the largest deposit of Uranium-a potent raw material for ammunition manufacturing.
Ability to have cheap raw materials to aid manufacturing of War weapons is obviously to aid Russia’s territorial wars.
The situation in Ukraine is a direct response to Western powers influence in Africa.
situation in for now enjoys the West support, the later pushing of ECOWAS to terminate Niger’s new military regime is a catch 22 situation for him in view of his latent struggling for consolidation of his power.
Tinubu’s problem is easily compounded by Mali and Burkina Faso, two west African countries intent on breaking age-long colonial ties with France in the reality of the new World Order.
In spite of support from Ivory Coast, Benin, and Senegal, Nigeria may not find military action in Niger a walkover.
Yes, it did a similar thing in Liberia and Gambia, Nigeria’s precarious economic situation is far different from 1991 and 2017 when it’s 135,000 strong soldiers called the shot in ECOMOG-then a much more cohesive regional body than what it is now.
Tinubu, also has to contend with larger Fulani population in Nigeria’s North West which have openly declared that war against Niger in form of military invasion is enmity with it since Fulani’s in Niger are its brethren and kinsmen.
The nations upper legislative Chamber, the Senate which has more Northerners has also equally mobilized public opinion against military invasion being pushed by US, France and Britain.
This is in spite of ECOWAS commissioning of its country’s military commanders to explore military option in firm of an invasion.
Tinubu’s dilemma is also compounded by the government desire to complete the moribund Ajaokuta Steel complex, which is as old as Nigeria but which international conspiracy by companies from the West has stalled its completion coupled with lack of focus by successive governments.
In this project, the Tinubu government is already in talks with Russian companies with promises to assist Nigeria.
Furthermore, Nigeria’s domestic issues awaiting Tinubu’s magic wand is akin to a man carrying an elephant on his head and using his leg to search for cricket.
While it is that Niger’s military takeover is of strategic political interest to West Africa for the threat it represents to the political stability of the region’s governments.
Hence, galvanizing strong home support in the face of her economic straits compounded by the removal of fuel subsidy, mounting domestic and foreign debts, mass poverty and discontent in the land are enough reasons for Tinubu to concentrate on building a cohesive and united domestic front than expending the gains of the removal of oil subsidy on a war which obviously has no end.
Yes, it is economically expedient for Nigeria to cultivate new business partners in the emergent world order, such should not be done by compromising domestic cohesiveness, Moreso when many elements in the Northern parts of the country seems to be at home with their kith and kin in Niger.
Immediate past President, Muhammadu Buhari, who has kept mute since the Niger power play reached its head.
He never left anyone in doubt about his affinity with his kith and kin in Niger.
The fact has to be pointed out that Russia by its emerging nature, is poised to make Africa battle ground for a resurgence of Cold War.
It is intent in reinventing a bi-polar struggle for sphere of influence between it and the Western world led by United States, Britain and France.
The latter is already under serious threat of economic independence from its former colonies.
For now, the best option left for Tinubu is to realign the member states of ECOWAS to adopt other strategies towards engaging the military junta in Niger especially, if it is proved that they are much more concerned about economic and political independence which will set it on the path of real development.
Tinubu should realize that in the task of rebuilding Nigeria, he cannot afford to be distracted from implementing outlined development policies and programme as contained in his last State of the Nation address and to fulfil his campaign promises.
Therein lies his social contract with Nigerians.
Charity for now has to begin from home irrespective of the need to protect the strategic interests of the country vis a vis with relationship with her neighbours.
