Why Are Politicians Not Campaigning?, By Taiwo Adisa, PhD

Why Are Politicians Not Campaigning?, By Taiwo Adisa, PhD

If you check out the decibels of noise politicians have generated around the 2027 election right from mid last year, you will think that by now the streets would be bursting with campaign activities, to the extent that normal day-to-day living would have been suffocating, especially in the main cities.  But here we are, three weeks after the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) opened the curtains on the campaigns for the presidential and National Assembly elections, and one week after the window for the Governorship and House of Assembly elections opened, a sort of tentativeness still pervades the polity.

It looks ironic, so to speak. In 2025, the whole talk was about 2027, to the extent that some stand-up comedians had to make the year 2026 the subject of their jokes. They claimed that the year 2026 might have offended Nigerians, such that nobody reckoned with it.

Everyone had eagerly awaited the dates INEC set aside for the political parties’ primary elections, as politicians oozed massive confidence in their possible victory at the intra-party elections. April and May went by; the primaries were done and dusted, and then the sound beats of 2027 started lowering.  It was easy to define what went wrong at the time. Several politicians had been served breakfast by their political parties, even as they struggled to interpret the full intent of the 2026 Electoral Act, which was hurriedly signed into law on February 18. Not many politicians were immediately clear as to what the drafters of the Electoral Act meant when the law mandates each political party to submit digital copies of their membership register before the primaries.  Many of the politicians were unable to immediately decode the implication of the consensus option and direct primaries adopted in the 2026 Electoral Act, with the exclusion of indirect primaries. Many of them were used to the provisions that allowed the conduct of primaries via indirect primaries (with the option of direct primaries and the consensus option) as contained in the nation’s electoral acts, up to 2022.

So, as they grappled with the legal interpretations of the new Act, the politicians also marked time, sorting out the peculiarities of the 2026 Electoral Act. We can therefore say that the lull witnessed after the conduct of the parties’ primaries up until the publication of the names of candidates by INEC was understandable. Why the lull appeared to have continued after INEC unveiled its portal for the January 16 and February 6, 2027 elections should, however, come as a surprise. Over the years, politicians have clamoured against tight campaign schedules, leading to the progressive amendments effected in the Electoral Act to address that issue. The idea behind the elongation of the days (up to 150 days) allotted for campaigns is to ensure that Nigerians hear their candidates, see them, and are able to interrogate their agenda at public debates, campaign stops, and different fora. In the 2010 Electoral Act, the lawmakers provided a 90-day window for campaigns. Section 99(1) of the Electoral Act 2010 (as amended) provides that: “For this Act, the period of campaigning in public by every political party shall commence 90 days before polling day and end 24 hours before that day.” In the 2022 Electoral Act, the lawmakers further expanded the campaign period in Section 94 (1), which reads: “For this Act, the period of campaigning in public by every political party shall commence 150 days before polling day and end 24 hours before that day.” A similar provision was retained in Section 98 (1) of the 2026 Electoral Act, which reads: “For this Act, the period of campaigning in public by every political party shall commence 150 days before polling day and end 24 hours before that day.”

So, for the January election, the campaign window opened on August 19, while the nod was given by INEC for the governorship and state assembly elections from September 9. But besides occasional splashes, none of the political parties have flagged off full-blown campaigns, thus raising the question: why the sudden cold feet? Though INEC has published a list of 19 political parties fielding presidential hopefuls for the January 16 election, none of them has hit the campaign trail three weeks after the window opened for campaigns.  Though the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) said it has commenced its nationwide campaigns after the August 22 announcement of the Presidential Campaign Council (PCC), no one has felt the effect of such a campaign. This is because President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who is seeking re-election, has chosen to embark on a three-week leave in the heat of the campaign. Can the presidential campaign take off fully in his absence? That certainly is a no-no, even though handlers of his party would insist that campaign activities were ongoing. Despite the announcement of the PCC, a formal inauguration of the council was yet to be effected. Aside from that, many of those listed in the council are still confused as to the role they are expected to play in the bloated campaign council.  There is also confusion among those initially constituted as Renewed Hope Ambassadors (RHA), who are 36 in number, with the governor of Imo State, Hope Uzodinma, as its director general. The RHA had been mobilised to set up structures for each of the 36 states, and it was initially expected that the structure would shoulder the 2027 presidential campaign. With Senator Abdulaziz Yari emerging as the Director General of the campaign council and Uzodinma also named as the secretary, the RHA appears to have been consumed. But members of the party have said that the role of each segment of the campaign would be sketched out during the inauguration of the PCC. When that would happen is not something anyone can hazard a guess right now. The situation in the African Democratic Congress (ADC), the National Democratic Congress (NDC) Accord, African Action Congress (AAC), the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Labour Party (LP), the Allied People’s Movement (APM), the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP) also appears as hazy as that of the APC. The ADC, whose candidate is the former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, is yet to announce the presidential campaign council. Reports last week indicated that the party was still juggling its choice between the former Speaker of the House of Representatives and former governor of Sokoto State, Senator Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, and Senator Austin Akobundu, a former National Organising Secretary of the PDP. Leaders of the party were said to be tinkering with the option of handling the campaign in a different way from what had been the norm, and that some faces might be injected into the campaign structure in deviation from the past procedures.

Whatever the leaders are doing, three weeks have gone since the campaign season flagged off, but not much is on the table in terms of campaigns. Some ADC chieftains might want to state that Atiku had already announced his economic blueprint, which is wrapped around the subsidy removal issue, but the actual campaign transcends the issuance of economic blueprints via press statements.  Nigerians would want to see him in different campaign stops at state capitals, where the candidate would speak to the issues affecting the people.

 From Atiku’s ADC, we are equally yet to see Peter Obi’s NDC hit the campaign trail. Last week, he was in Benue and Plateau States to commiserate with the people over the repeated violent attacks against the residents, though the Benue visit ended in commotion, following the attack on his convoy by some youths. Though Obi has remained visible, like Atiku, the fact remains that none of the major presidential candidates has flagged off the 2027 presidential campaign.

It is possible to relate this undue delay to efforts of the G100, which is seeking a single opposition candidate against President Bola Tinubu. While their effort is looking increasingly impossible, proponents of the idea have kept at it, believing that they can rally the major opposition parties together under a kind of alliance ahead of the January polls.

 Let me tell proponents of the G100 agenda that the effort being put into the single opposition candidate scheme will not yield the desired fruits.  Going by the conversation among the key opposition elements as late as last week, it is becoming crystal clear that any attempt to get the candidates to step down for one another would amount to a wasted exercise.   Last week, the running mate for Peter Obi of NDC, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwakwanso, told newsmen that it was high time Atiku stepped down from the presidential race on the account of his age, his traditional title and his health, adding that if he and Obi win the election in 2027, they would take good care of him. Obi had earlier spoken the same Thursday, when he appeared on Arise television and declared that it was difficult for him to step down for Atiku, stating that “we have passed that stage.”

Days before Obi and Kwankwaso spoke on Atiku’s ambition, an ally of Atiku Abubakar had also described the attempt by the G100 to midwife a single opposition candidate as “medicine after death,” adding that the ADC presidential candidate had mooted the idea of a single opposition presidential candidate when he pushed for the formation of the ADC.  With Obi and Kwankwaso out of the ADC, it is practically impossible to force a marriage of the candidates or the parties at this stage.

Rather than dissipating energy on trying to force a marriage of disinterested partners, the G100 should allow the parties to focus on their campaigns. Instead of holding endless meetings that would only deny the parties ample time to communicate their agenda to Nigerians, the G100 should admit that the departure of Obi and Kwankwaso from the ADC in the first instance has practically killed any push for a united opposition in the 2027 election. Let the parties roll out their campaign drums; otherwise, they would be killing the lofty idea behind the elongated campaign schedules as contained in the 2026 Electoral Act.