2027 Presidency: Same Contestants, Different Scenarios, By Tunde Abatan
The publication last Saturday September 12 of the list of 18 Presidential candidates of the political parties contesting the nation’s highest office in January 2027 marked a significant point in Nigeria’s attempt to conduct its 12th cycle of election in her 67 years old journey to nationhood.
Among the contestants are two female candidates from two upstart political parties, the National Democratic Party and the National Rescue Movement both represented by Ada Elizabeth and Nkem Esther Okereke respectively.
The list of the 18 candidates is led by the incumbent President Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress, APC, former vice President Atiku Abubakar of the African Democratic Congress, ADC and Peter Obi of the National Democratic Congress, NDC led by Senator Seriake Dickson, a former governor of Bayelsa state.
It is interesting that the names of the three mentioned above are not new as they separately participated in the last election in 2023 which brought in the incumbent.
What is worthy of note is that according to the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, a total of 24,025,740 voters participated during the last election ,97.3% of who voted for the three leading candidates who shared the 36 states among themselves.
While APC won in 12 states, Atiku of PDP also won in 12,Peter Obi in 11,while Kwankwaso of NNPP won in 1 state.
Only 2.7% of the voters cast their vote for the remaining candidates.
In essence, the new list as reflected in the names of the leading candidates , shows that the leading candidates are set to have a rematch of their last battle since they remain in different parties.
While President Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the APC polled 8,774,726 million votes, Atiku of then PDP polled 6,984,520 votes to come second while Obi polled 6,101,532 votes to come third.
It is significant to recall that had Atiku and Obi who were in the main opposition PDP before the election combined their forces they would have defeated Tinubu in a historic, North/East strategic alliance to clinch power.
Today, the scenario is far from equal the experience of the past four years for a number of reasons.
While incumbent Tinubu has managed to increase the number of state government in his party’s kitty to 31 from the initial 21 in 2023, in reverse, the PDP has lost all its states due to internal conflicts occasioned by irreconcilable differences which borders on control of the party and the Atiku tendency.
In the same vein, the New Nigerian Peoples Party of Senator Rabiu Kwakwanso has lost its only state due to same conflict of interest while only the Labour Party and APGA has managed to retain their states.
But LPs grip on Abia state is without Obi who propelled the party to power in 2023.
It is not yet sure the stead fastness of Alex Otti in throwing his weight and resources behind Obi whom he advised not to leave the LP.
Today, Atiku’s camp insistence on controlling the fortunes of the PDP has practically destroyed the party but for Works Minister Nyesom Wike who managed to hijack what is left of the party.
But then, after moving to newly reinvigorated ADC, Atiku who with Obi joined the party, had also parted ways.
What is more, neither is Atiku nor Obi able to take along with them Oyo ,Bauchi and Abia states as the governors of the respective states declined to join ADC.
Thus, Atiku and Obi has no single state government and grassroots party structure working for them.
It is clear to all and sundry that election at all levels is won not by emotions or sentiments but by active party structures at all levels.
After the close of the submission of party registers to the INEC, the ruling APC claimed it has registered 10 million members all over the 36 states and FCT, the ADC claimed it had 1.5million INEC certified members while the NDC said it has submitted 700,789 registered members to INEC.
After Obi and Kwankwaso parted ways with ADC in April, barely four months after the parties met in Ibadan and pledged to high heavens they will field a single candidate, 18 national assembly legislators followed Obi and Kwankwaso to NDC.
They were led by notable members like Cleopatra Moses, Barrister Ikenna Enakwenu.
Also Dickson lost control of Governor Duoye Diri who has defected to the APC.
Today, both Governors Seyi Makinde and Adamu of Bauchi who are erstwhile PDP members refused to join the ADC with Atiku and also failed to take control of the PDP as the Saminu Turaki faction they supported lost in court to Wike’s faction in spite of the Ibadan national convention last year which produced its national executives now rendered powerless by the Supreme court ruling.
The two governors are now in APM with Makinde now its Presidential candidate.
Makinde is also having difficulty in getting Ibadan, Oyo state biggest city behind him as the Ibadan Elders has refuted reports of their purported endorsement of his Presidential ambition.
That left him with only a fraction of Oyo citizenry most of who are likely to support Tinubu’s reelection for Yoruba strategic interests.
His running mate from Bauchi, former DSS Director, Dauda Lawal has his limitations to deliver the state.
As for Atiku, during the 2023 presidential elections, he won in 12 states same with Tinubu who had more spread in his votes.
Today, ADC claimed it had governorship candidates in 28 states to help the party campaign vigorously for both the Presidential and governorship elections.
In the last few weeks since the beginning of Presidential campaign for the January 15,2027 elections, Atiku has raised old battles lines both locally and internationally.
The impact of this is not yet discernible as hardly could we see any court in Nigeria that would disqualify Tinubu.
Atiku, it will be recalled has serially condemn the judiciary which he has now approached to help him disqualify Tinubu the sitting President who has surreptitiously increased salaries and living conditions of federal high court judges.
Wike the FCT minister has also commissioned new set of duplexes for serving Federal judges.
The promise to revert to fuel subsidy by Atiku which remains the biggest campaign weapon against Tinubu for its effect on the citizenry is receiving diverse views but the practicability of it given the increased monetary allocations to sub -nationals is questionable.
This is just as the source of funding for subsidy payment which will most likely fall on the accumulated Foreign reserves which has blossomed to $54.1 billion in the last three years and its impact on Nigeria’s financial standing in international trade.
Besides, by removing subsidy, at least 15 states from the North wont be able to pay salaries.
Governor Uba of Kaduna state recently admitted in a Channels TV interview that the state was paying an average of N6bn monthly on servicing its humongous debt left behind by former Governor El -Rufai with nothing in terms of infrastructure to show for it. He wondered how the state would be able to service its debt which may spread to 40 years.
He cited various road projects hitherto abandoned by previous federal administration but now being faithfully executed by Tinubu.
Atiku is also banking on arousing the interest of Northern power brokers, the elite and the downtrodden who are being told subsidy is the source of their poverty which though has not improved with about 300% increase in monthly allocation to the state governments.
But then, the growing insecurity in the North and the historical attitude of the North West may tilt states like Zamfara, Sokoto, Bauchi, Yobe, Kebbi and parts of Kaduna and Kano good catchment areas for Atiku.
Though, he is from Adamawa state, the defection of Governor Fintiri to the APC is a minus for Atiku just as the influence of vice President Kashim Shettima ,a two term governor of Borno state cannot be wished away.
Also, the acknowledged sterling performance of Governor Abubakar Zulum of Borno state as a member of the APC may be another reduction of the influence of Atiku in who is counting on the support of the North East and North West for power to return to the region.
As for the other North West states of Katsina and Niger, the influence of Governor Bago who is relatively younger may count against Atiku as some of the younger governors in the region are positioning themselves for when power will undoubtedly shift to the North in 2031.
As for the Middle belt region, the ethno- religious crisis in Benue and Plateau state is rather complex giving the contention of the other ethnic groups led by the Hausas to contain Fulani political influence which they believed has empowered the Fulani militia to dispossessed many of their lands.
The growing popularity of Kaduna State Governor, Uba Sani who has starved -off repression of people of Southern Kaduna under former governor Nasir el- Rufai with the return of relative peace in the area may count against Atiku in this very important North West state.
In Kano, the misunderstanding between Kwankwaso,an in-law to Governor Abba Yusuff has divided the Kwankwasiya movement down the line just as the membership of APC by former Governor Ibrahim Shekarau who also has his followership in the Talakawa movement may diminish the capacity of Kwankwaso to deliver the 3 million Kano votes regarded as the highest in the country followed only by Rivers state where Wike and Fubara are in firm control.
In the South East, it is doubtful if Obi can re enact the 92% votes support given the Labour Party in 2023.
Though ,Obi remains very popular in the region, determination of Governors of Enugu, Ebonyi coupled with the efforts of Works Minister, Dave Umahi, will definitely diffuse Obis home base in the region .
Attitude of Anambra Governor, Charles Soludo whose party the APGA has already adopted Tinubu cannot be dismissed given his relative popularity among his people.
In the South West, Tinubu and his foot soldiers are not leaving any stone unturned in ensuring he gets at least 70% of the total votes cast.
If Lagos is determined to deliver 2 million votes to compensate for the 2023 loss, declaration of former Governor Ayo Fayose that the region will deliver 4 million votes to Tinubu cannot be dismissed given the relentless mobilisation by governors of Ogun, Ondo, while the strategic politics played by Tinubu in creating level playing field during the Osun governorship election, has turned out a plus for him since Governor Ademola Adeleke practically delivered his mandate and party, the Accord party victory to the President after re election.
There is no doubt that the scenario as obtained in 2023 has changed such that the two main rivals of Tinubu has weakened their collective capacity by refusing to close ranks to face the incumbent.
For Tinubu, the only obstacle for a resounding and overwhelming victory in South West remains the candidature of Governor Makinde of APM who seems poised to reduce Tinubu’s influence.
There is no doubt that the opposition led by Atiku and Obi are not operating from a stronger position as they did separately in 2023.
Interesting times ahead.
