2023: Of Obasanjos Godfather Role And Tinubu/Atikus Demystifying Game
By Tunde Abatan
Since he left power in 2007,Olusegun Obasanjo, once Nigeria moral compass, has never let any opportunity to remain relevant in the scheme of things in the country elude him.
Even when his postulations appears like an old school song full of sound and fury signifying nothing he always find a way out either by stirring hornets nest through his public Letter writing to authorities aimed at assuming role of a moral critique.
In the last three weeks, the former President who several times since he stepped left power have often claim to have assumed a fatherly role available only to give advice on non partisan basis have always behaved to the contrary.
When he is not busy chastising those who are in power for failing to do what he too failed to accomplish, he is busy erecting structures with which he thought he could retain relevance even when he knows the level of his followership is reducing by the day.
Four years ago, when it appears his tenuous hold on relevance is slipping away through his fingers, he floated the African Democratic Congress, ADC, a political minibus he thought will represent the Third Force to replace both the then ruling All Progressives Congress, APC and the opposition People’s
Democratic Party, PDP, the party on which he rode to power in 1999 but which card he publicly tore into shreds in 2014 to show his annoyance.
Again in 2018 ,Obasanjo a figure never to see any opportunity to regain relevance as a result of Muhammadu Buharis lack lustre performance, mounted on his back, Abubakar Atiku, his former vice with whom he has vowed never to do business.
This is in spite of biting remarks he made about Atiku’s not impressive abuse of power while he deputize for eight years.
Since in politics, interest matters, Obasanjo saw in Atiku another object to remove Buhari from power.
To borrow Senator Bola Tinubu’s word, the former President failed in his bid to get Atiku back to power ..O lule.
It is apparent that for many leaders in African continent, they never realized the power they had while in office; never use it well until office turn it’s back on them or abuse such power to the extent that they are either thrown into the rubbish heap of history and totally forgotten.
Again, this year although Obasanjo claims to have left partisan politics. only to advice aspirants, yet he is subtly plotting through the back door to remain relevance.
For now, Obasanjo like the late Obafemi Awolowo described the late Federal Electoral Commission, FEDECO, Ovie Whiskey, ‘has two faces’.. one face for outside for non partisanship and another face inside surreptitiously plotting to enthrone Peter Obi of the Labour Party as his new godson.
Power mongers anywhere in the world are never tired of cultivating and manipulating power for selfish purposes.
To him, power and influence has become a game and allure difficult to divulge.
He is obviously behaving like a fish, difficult to survive outside water.
In spite of his protestations, he has continued to remain in who occupies Aso rock where he ruled and reigned for eight years .
Obasanjo showed his hands two weeks ago when after openly embracing Tinubu, who paid a visit to him in Abeokuta on his ambition, again openly denied ever endorsing the former Lagos Governor who till he left office, was the only governor who looked straight into Obasanjo’s eyes and challenged his authoritarian rule both in the court of law and in political space.
He matched Obasanjo in intrigues, propaganda and deceit .
His never die spirit saw him remain relevance after surviving Obasanjo’s totalitarian use of power to ‘cow’ governors who served along with him.
He tried but couldn’t whip Tinubu to line.
Today, two weeks after ‘gleefully’ receiving Tinubu in Abeokuta, Obasanjo has found himself playing the chess game against Tinubu and Atiku in his bid to sell his new found political son, Peter Obi of the Labour Party.
What perhaps is making Obasanjo’s game difficult this time around is the new emerging force of Rivers state Governor ,Nyesom Wike who is proofing a big bone to crack not only for Atiku and his PDP power brokers, but also indirectly undermining Obasanjo’s plot to foist Obi on both the Northern power brokers and the South East and South South political leaders.
His plot in all this is to revisit his desire to create a new Third Force through Obi.
But then, the convergence of influence of Tinubu on Wike through the Governor of Oyo state and other southern governors ,who though are PDP governors is instructive.
The governors moves who are subtly involved in the Tinubu and Wike’s plot to undermine Atiku and PDP in the South South is proving a difficult nut to crack.
Obasanjo’s political shuttle to London last week – the new political mecca of Nigeria’s political aspirants where deals are struck and promises broken, is also desperate and instructive.
In this year preceding election, Obasanjo, Tinubu, Atiku and Wike’s choice of London to meet and plot to determine Nigeria’s future in 2023 is surreptitiously converging on our old colonial masters the influence to determine who rules Nigeria 2023.
Though the meetings are not normally held with British diplomatic presence, yet it signals a new power game.
The British did so in 1960 when they played a major role in making sure the late Dr Namdi Azikwe frustrated all moves by the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo to strike an enduring alliance between the then Action Group and Ziks, National Council of Nigeria Citizens, NCNC .
The alliance floundered as Zik midnight while Awo and lieutenants were holed in Asaba waiting for the Owelle, the later had earlier crossed the Niger bridge to seal a pact with Sardauna of Sokoto, the defacto leaders of Northern People’s Congress, NPC, accepting to be a titular President under Tafawa Balewa .
But then with Tinubu’s strategic inroad into the North West and incursion into North east, coupled with dominance in South West-three regions whose vote determine who rules Nigeria, it is doubtful whether Obasanjo’s clandestine moves and suspect moves will give victory to his new political son who has more marketing to do.
He has a bigger task to convince Northern youths who to borrow Atikus word, “are not social media compliant”.
If Obi could not get total dominance in South East with Atiku’s probable growing influence among politician of that region, it is doubtful he could pull majority vote next year.
Should Obasanjo fail to change Northern resentment of casting their lot for President of Igbo extraction, it is doubtful he could attain same in South West where Tinubu is largely seen as representing a viable alternative to another Fulani rule for eight years.
With over three million registered voters next to Kaduna, Wike’s relevance and influence in the oil rich state may be all the reason why in spite of his setting impossible condition for reconciliation, still remains to be courted and cajoled.
For now, since twenty four hours is long in politics, the stakes for who get the soul of Southern voters is becoming higher even as Tinubu’s camp seems to be enjoying Southern governors resolve for power shift to the region irrespective of party affiliation as being surreptitiously being done by Seyi Makinde of Oyo state.
There is no doubt that next year’s election may be the final test of strength and relevance of Obasanjo since his preferred candidate may come a distance third during the elections when the chips are down.
Should it go this way, either of Tinubu of Atiku who emerge as next President may conclude final move to retire Obasanjo from the political scene if that may reduce his overbearing messianic intrusion in the corridors of power.
Time is ticking fast!