Ogun 2027: Is Yayi’s Guber Dream Now Endangered?
By Azuh Arinze
For Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola, popularly known as Yayi, the journey to the Ogun State Government House, initially, was supposed to be a carefully choreographed political ascent.
After years of building a formidable political profile in Lagos, winning elections to the House and Representatives and Senate, and subsequently relocating his political base to Ogun West, Yayi appeared to have finally secured what many regarded as the ultimate prize: the governorship ticket of the All Progressives Congress (APC) for the 2027 election.
Incredibly, what once looked like a smooth march towards Oke-Mosan is increasingly beginning to resemble a political minefield and mirage.
The APC candidate is currently confronted by a combination of factors that could potentially make his gubernatorial ambition far more difficult than his emergence as the party’s candidate suggested.
At the centre of the storm is the question of identity.
Few issues have generated as much political heat around Yayi as the controversy over his Ogun ancestry.
His opponents, particularly those sympathetic to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Oladipupo Adebutu, son of billionaire businessman and socialite, Sir Kensington Adebutu, aka Baba Ijebu, have repeatedly questioned his claim to Ogun indigene status.
The controversy has now become so pronounced that Adebutu’s political organisation publicly questioned the origin of the APC candidate and even challenged questions surrounding the information supplied about his ancestry to electoral authorities!
Yayi, however, has not accepted the allegation.
Indeed, traditional authorities in Ogun have publicly risen in his defence. In August, some Ogun traditional chiefs reportedly declared him a bona fide Egba indigene from Kemta, describing contrary claims as politically motivated and orchestrated.
That intervention, however, has not ended the argument.
Among those challenging Yayi’s ancestry are people who insist that he is not a Yewa man and that his roots are actually traceable to Ekiti State.
This, no doubt, is politically significant. Reason being that in Ogun politics, identity is not merely a genealogical question. It can become an electoral instrument – unlike Lagos. As a matter of fact, the long-standing agitation for power rotation among Ogun’s three senatorial districts and the expectations of the various sub-groups mean that the question of where a candidate comes from can influence how voters perceive his legitimacy.
Opponents have therefore sought to make Yayi’s ancestry an issue that cannot simply be wished away.
One of the claims circulating in the political space is that his late mother was buried in Epe, Lagos State, a fact being deployed by his critics to raise questions about the family’s historical connection with Ogun.
Whether such circumstances constitute evidence against his Ogun identity is another matter entirely.
And then there is Ladi Adebutu.
If Yayi’s political opponents were previously fragmented, the emergence of Adebutu as the PDP’s 2027 governorship candidate has given the opposition a formidable rallying point.
Adebutu, who was the PDP’s candidate in the 2023 election, has been returned as the party’s candidate for 2027. His emergence was formally affirmed through the party’s primary process.
Interestingly, Adebutu appears to be rebuilding the political structure that made him a major challenger in 2023.
His campaign, lately, has been increasingly visible across the state, with defections from rival political camps and renewed mobilisation of grassroots structures.
Even more telling was the reception he received in Ogun West recently.
Reports of endorsements by Ogun West indigenes and a strong show of support from Yewa communities have given Adebutu an opportunity to position himself as a candidate capable of building bridges across the state’s political and ethnic divides. Coupled with that is the choice of his running mate, the much-liked Yemi Kolapo.
Of course, Adebutu does not have to prove that Yayi is not from Ogun to benefit from the argument.
All he needs is for enough voters to begin asking the question even though some are insisting that coming from the same zone with Governor Dapo Abiodun is also a minus for him.
There is equally the Bola Ahmed Tinubu factor.
Yayi’s political rise has been closely associated with the support of President Tinubu. Reports earlier this year described Tinubu as an important political backer of the senator’s governorship ambition, while Governor Dapo Abiodun and other Ogun political figures like Chief Segun Osoba publicly presented him as the APC’s candidate.
That presidential connection remains one of Yayi’s greatest political assets.
Although there is now speculation in some political circles that the President may be becoming increasingly uncomfortable with the controversies surrounding the Ogun race.
That speculation, however, should be treated with caution.
Reason being that there is no credible public evidence at present establishing that President Tinubu has withdrawn his support from Yayi or that he has formally become displeased with him.
What is undeniable is that the more controversies that surround a candidate, the greater the political burden on the person backing him.
For Tinubu, whose political interests in Ogun extend beyond one candidate, the overriding consideration may ultimately be victory.
Another issue that could become crucial is the relationship between Yayi and the old political establishment in Ogun.
The state has produced formidable political figures, including former Governors Gbenga Daniel and Ibikunle Amosun. Of course, not forgetting former President Olusegun Obasanjo, whose daughter, Iyabo, has pitched tents with Adebutu. Coupled with that is also the fact that Adebutu’s daughter is married to one of Obasanjo’s sons.
Indeed, the 2027 contest is already showing signs of a complex realignment involving different political camps.
Daniel’s political influence, particularly in Ogun East, remains relevant, while Amosun has his own political interests, legacy and network to protect.
It would therefore be simplistic to assume that the endorsement of one prominent political figure automatically translates into the support of the entire Ogun political establishment.
This may ultimately be Yayi’s biggest challenge.
Yes, his political career, understandably, has demonstrated an ability to build powerful alliances. But governorship elections are fundamentally different from legislative contests.
A senator can win a senatorial district with a carefully constructed political coalition. A governor must win across an entire state.
Which requires ethnic balancing, local structures, traditional rulers, influential politicians, and even former office holders.
Above all, it requires voters to believe that the candidate belongs to them.
And that is where the ancestry controversy could become particularly damaging if it continues unchecked.
Yayi’s supporters may dismiss it as political propaganda. But his opponents will continue to exploit it.
And somewhere between those two positions lies the electorate.
For now, Yayi remains the APC’s candidate and cannot be written off.
Indeed, his political machinery is formidable, his national connections are considerable, and the ruling party controls the machinery of government in Ogun.
Adebutu, on the other hand, has the advantage of familiarity, experience, a strong political family name, and the benefit of having already contested the governorship.
His challenge is equally enormous.
For Yayi, in conclusion, the dream of becoming governor is still alive.
But the road to Oke-Mosan is no longer as straightforward as it once appeared.
Serious dangers now lurk on the horizon.
– Azuh Arinze, FNGE, is the publisher/editor-in-chief of YES INTERNATIONAL! Magazine and author of important books like The CEO’s Bible 1&2, Anything and Everything Journalism,
